The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 21

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

Monday, November 21, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 1–0@CHI 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 72 percent, CHI 28 percent. BOS Celtics 72% proj. 120 · final 107 CHI Bulls · home 28% proj. 111 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 120 107 −13
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 111 121 +10

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16821450
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −162
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.0−1.1
Games played this season 1616
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 120.8108.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.8111.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1682CHI1450

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1682

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 6 games: −20.1
  3. Last 10 games: +55.6
  • L@CLE113–114−4.1
  • WCHI123–119+2.5
  • W@NYK133–118+11.2
  • W@MEM109–106+6.3
  • WDET128–112+2.7
  • WDEN131–112+7.3
  • W@DET117–108+3.7
  • WOKC126–122+1.5
  • W@ATL126–101+17.0
  • W@NOP117–109+7.5

CHI1450

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1426 → started this one at 1444
  2. First 6 games: +15.7
  3. Last 10 games: −9.9
  • LPHI109–114−6.1
  • W@BKN108–99+13.2
  • WCHA106–88+14.4
  • L@BOS119–123−2.5
  • L@TOR104–113−4.6
  • WTOR111–97+14.9
  • LNOP111–115−6.5
  • LDEN103–126−19.7
  • L@NOP110–124−6.6
  • LORL107–108−6.4
Season scoring marginBOS+7.0CHI−1.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+7.0

Scores 120.2, allows 113.0 over 16 games: +7.2 a game.

80% this season (+7.2) + 20% last season (+6.4) = +7.0

CHI−1.1

Scores 110.5, allows 111.6 over 16 games: −1.1 a game.

80% this season (−1.1) + 20% last season (−1.2) = −1.1

Offensive rating, last 10BOS120.8CHI108.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

BOS120.8scored, +9.1 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.4%53.7%+7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.7%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.7%23.8%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210+0.2
Everything else+1.5

CHI108.6scored, −3.1 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%53.7%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.7%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%23.8%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210−0.1
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10BOS109.8CHI111.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

BOS109.8allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%53.7%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.7%−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%23.8%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.210+0.8
Everything else+0.8

CHI111.0allowed, −0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%53.7%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.7%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.7%23.8%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2350.210−0.7
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 100.9 and CHI 100.0 → average 100.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-21 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS3 daysCHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS3days

Last played Nov 18 against NOP.

CHI3days

Last played Nov 18 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18@NOP117–10941-8520-4615-171711117.0110.199.5
Nov 16@ATL126–10148-8821-469-10146124.898.1102.0
Nov 14OKC126–12246-9610-3724-291410112.5108.0112.5
Nov 12@DET117–10839-9118-4821-2479119.4109.198.5
Nov 11DEN131–11250-9016-3715-20710140.9120.493.0
Nov 9DET128–11247-8818-4616-21128125.5109.8102.0
Nov 7@MEM109–10638-8212-3721-28157110.1105.0100.0
Nov 5@NYK133–11847-8827-5112-12128135.7119.298.5
Nov 4CHI123–11941-839-3132-39137119.4114.4103.5
Nov 2@CLE113–11438-9311-4126-27148102.7103.699.6

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18ORL107–10841-895-2120-251113109.2111.397.5
Nov 16@NOP110–12444-8911-3211-17127111.1126.598.5
Nov 13DEN103–12640-816-2217-21188102.0126.0100.5
Nov 9NOP111–11544-877-2716-18156108.8111.7102.5
Nov 7TOR111–9742-809-2818-22219107.894.2103.0
Nov 6@TOR104–11340-8813-3611-131715108.3118.995.5
Nov 4@BOS119–12343-8311-2822-25174114.4119.4103.5
Nov 2CHA106–8838-8814-3116-181911105.085.4102.0
Nov 1@BKN108–9939-8912-3018-21911112.5104.295.5
Oct 29PHI109–11436-8011-3126-29189106.9112.9101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
23 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +14 for CHI
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
105th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSCHI
Final score107121
Field goals38–87 · 43.7%46–89 · 51.7%
Three-pointers19–50 · 38.0%14–29 · 48.3%
Free throws12–17 · 70.6%15–20 · 75.0%
Rebounds3851
Assists2826
Turnovers1511
Steals310
Blocks41

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−9+14+23
Total points231228−3
BOS points120107−13
CHI points111121+10

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 at NOP W 117–109
Nov 16 at ATL W 126–101
Nov 14 vs OKC W 126–122
Nov 12 at DET W 117–108
Nov 11 vs DEN W 131–112

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 vs ORL L 107–108
Nov 16 at NOP L 110–124
Nov 13 vs DEN L 103–126
Nov 9 vs NOP L 111–115
Nov 7 vs TOR W 111–97

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 4 2022-23 CHI at BOS CHI 119 – 123 BOS
Oct 24 2022-23 BOS at CHI BOS 102 – 120 CHI
Apr 6 2021-22 BOS at CHI BOS 117 – 94 CHI
Jan 15 2021-22 CHI at BOS CHI 112 – 114 BOS
Nov 1 2021-22 CHI at BOS CHI 128 – 114 BOS