The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

LAC 1–1@OKC 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 26 percent, OKC 74 percent. LAC Clippers 26% proj. 108 · final 101 OKC Thunder · home 74% proj. 117 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 108 101 −7
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 117 108 −9

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans OKC

  • Home court+2.1 OKCWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.0 OKCElo OKC 1703, LAC 1530; season margin OKC +10.8, LAC +1.9.
  • Recent form+0.7 OKCLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: OKC scores 109.0 and allows 109.2; LAC scores 114.9 and allows 114.2.

Together: OKC by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

OKC is 2–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 94). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.5. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.8, defensive rebounding −1.5.

LAC is 1–1, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 110). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.8. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.4.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors OKC; left favors LAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.0, Recent form +0.7, Player availability +0.2, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +9.3 for OKC. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.0 Recent form +0.7 Player availability +0.2 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +9.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.3. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLACOKCEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15301703 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +243 +4.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.9+10.8 +1.3
Games played this season 22 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.9109.0 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.2109.2 +1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 23 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueOKC ptsLAC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court243.4+1.75−2.86+4.61
Season scoring margin (home)10.8+1.07−0.47+1.54
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.80−0.17+0.97
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.30+0.47−0.77
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.2−0.49−1.07+0.58
Elo rating (home)1703.5+0.35−0.22+0.57
Games played (away)2.0+0.33+0.86−0.53
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.2+0.28−0.11+0.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.9+0.07+0.39−0.32
Season scoring margin (away)1.9−0.21+0.07−0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.04+0.21
Combined pace, last 1098.7−1.09−1.27+0.18
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.0−0.43−0.26−0.17
Games played (home)2.0+0.58+0.42+0.17
Rest days (home)3.0+0.11−0.02+0.13
Elo rating (away)1530.0−0.11−0.03−0.08
Series pressure0.0−0.03+0.02−0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1530OKC17035.1 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1530

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 2 games: +0.9
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9

OKC1703

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 2 games: +21.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
Season scoring marginLAC+1.9OKC+10.80.9 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+1.9

Scores 119.0, allows 110.5 over 2 games: +8.5 a game.

10% this season (+8.5) + 90% last season (+1.1) = +1.9

OKC+10.8

Scores 106.0, allows 94.0 over 2 games: +12.0 a game.

10% this season (+12.0) + 90% last season (+10.7) = +10.8

Offensive rating, last 10LAC114.9OKC109.00.5 pts toward LAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC114.9scored, +0.3 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.210+0.1
Everything else−0.2

OKC109.0scored, −5.6 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.5%−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10LAC114.2OKC109.21.0 pts toward OKC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC114.2allowed, −0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.5%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.8%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210−0.3
Everything else+0.5

OKC109.2allowed, −5.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.4%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.210−1.1
Everything else−1.1
Pace, last 10average 98.70.2 pts toward OKC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.5 and OKC 97.9 → average 98.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0OKC0.00.2 pts toward OKC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysOKC3 days0.1 pts toward OKC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 23 against LAL.

OKC3days

Last played Oct 22 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5
Mar 29@MIL127–11345-7713-3024-28167125.7111.9101.0

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5
May 18SAS115–12241-10117-4516-19149102.7106.193.9
May 11@LAL115–11042-8111-3120-24116117.3112.298.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
74%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual +7 for OKC
117th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACOKC
Final score101108
Field goals37–81 · 45.7%42–94 · 44.7%
Three-pointers15–38 · 39.5%8–24 · 33.3%
Free throws12–15 · 80.0%16–17 · 94.1%
Rebounds3846
Assists3023
Turnovers2616
Steals1015
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+9+7−2
Total points225209−16
LAC points108101−7
OKC points117108−9

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116
Apr 8 vs OKC L 110–128

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104
May 30 vs SAS L 103–111
May 28 at SAS L 91–118
May 26 vs SAS W 127–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 8 2025-26 OKC at LAC OKC 128 – 110 LAC
Dec 18 2025-26 LAC at OKC LAC 101 – 122 OKC
Nov 4 2025-26 OKC at LAC OKC 126 – 107 LAC
Mar 23 2024-25 OKC at LAC OKC 103 – 101 LAC
Jan 2 2024-25 LAC at OKC LAC 98 – 116 OKC