The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

TOR 3–3@LAC 1–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 59 percent, LAC 41 percent. TOR Raptors 59% proj. 116 · final 125 LAC Clippers · home 41% proj. 113 · final 118
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 116 125 +9
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 113 118 +5

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans TOR

  • Home court+2.1 LACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.8 TORElo LAC 1492, TOR 1541; season margin LAC −1.4, TOR +4.1.
  • Player availability+0.9 TORTOR without Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg); LAC without Rui Hachimura (13 ppg) and Derrick Jones Jr. (12 ppg).
  • Rest and schedule+0.4 TORLAC 1 days of rest, TOR 1. LAC and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: TOR by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

TOR is 3–3, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 110). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.7, ball security +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +2.4, free throws allowed −2.3. Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC is 1–5, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 114). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.7% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.3. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. Rui Hachimura and Derrick Jones Jr. are out (25 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAC; left favors TOR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −3.8, Player availability −0.9, Rest and schedule −0.4, Recent form −0.4, No playoff context +0.2, giving −3.2 for LAC. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −3.8 Player availability −0.9 Rest and schedule −0.4 Recent form −0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin −3.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −3.2. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputTORLACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15411492 +0.0
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +20 −1.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.1−1.4 −1.1
Games played this season 66 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.9107.6 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.7114.0 −1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.3 +0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.524.9 −0.9
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAC ptsTOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court20.2−1.01+0.92−1.93
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.7−1.33−0.06−1.27
Combined pace, last 10100.3+2.20+1.26+0.94
Rotation points missing (away)19.5−0.07+0.70−0.77
Games played (away)6.0−0.03+0.66−0.70
Season scoring margin (home)-1.4−0.36+0.26−0.62
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.6−1.17−0.58−0.58
Season scoring margin (away)4.1−0.13+0.33−0.45
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.0+0.05−0.26+0.30
Rest days (home)1.0−0.24+0.01−0.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.9+0.04−0.20+0.24
Back-to-back (home)1−0.14+0.07−0.21
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.10+0.17
Rotation points missing (home)24.9−0.03+0.13−0.16
Elo rating (away)1541.4+0.09−0.01+0.10
Games played (home)6.0−0.01+0.08−0.10
Elo rating (home)1491.6−0.04+0.04−0.08
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.01+0.05
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1541LAC14921.9 pts toward TOR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1541

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 6 games: +0.8
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
  • WORL129–99+15.5
  • LORL114–121−12.3
  • L@LAL125–131−5.4

LAC1492

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 6 games: −37.6
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9
  • L@OKC101–108−2.8
  • LLAL87–103−15.5
  • L@MIN101–127−10.7
  • L@GSW112–124−9.5
Season scoring marginTOR+4.1LAC−1.41.9 pts toward TOR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+4.1

Scores 118.2, allows 110.3 over 6 games: +7.8 a game.

30% this season (+7.8) + 70% last season (+2.5) = +4.1

LAC−1.4

Scores 106.5, allows 113.8 over 6 games: −7.3 a game.

30% this season (−7.3) + 70% last season (+1.1) = −1.4

Offensive rating, last 10TOR111.9LAC107.60.3 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR111.9scored, −2.7 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.7%54.5%−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.9%26.1%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210+0.2
Everything else+1.6

LAC107.6scored, −7.0 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.2%−5.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.210+0.1
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10TOR108.7LAC114.01.0 pts toward TOR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR108.7allowed, −5.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)16.4%12.2%+6.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2900.210−2.3
Everything else+0.7

LAC114.0allowed, −0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210−0.5
Everything else+1.4
Pace, last 10average 100.30.9 pts toward LAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 100.5 and LAC 100.1 → average 100.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingTOR19.5LAC24.90.9 pts toward TOR

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAC24.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Rui Hachimura13.430.05
Derrick Jones Jr.11.528.76

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestTOR1 daysLAC1 days0.4 pts toward TOR

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against LAL.

LAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1@LAL125–13145-10517-5418-251522116.8123.6106.5
Oct 30ORL114–12146-9111-2711-151115125.3131.591.5
Oct 28ORL129–9944-8815-3526-31148125.298.0102.0
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1@GSW112–12440-9114-3918-191414112.0122.8100.5
Oct 30@MIN101–12735-8512-3019-221711102.0127.099.5
Oct 28LAL87–10326-7410-3125-27241289.7105.197.5
Oct 25@OKC101–10837-8115-3812-1526899.0105.9102.0
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
4 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual −7 for LAC
74th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
111th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORLAC
Final score125118
Field goals43–83 · 51.8%42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers8–29 · 27.6%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws31–48 · 64.6%21–27 · 77.8%
Rebounds4138
Assists2629
Turnovers1314
Steals66
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)−3−7−4
Total points229243+14
TOR points116125+9
LAC points113118+5

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 at LAL L 125–131
Oct 30 vs ORL L 114–121
Oct 28 vs ORL W 129–99
Oct 25 at MIN L 94–117
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 at GSW L 112–124
Oct 30 at MIN L 101–127
Oct 28 vs LAL L 87–103
Oct 25 at OKC L 101–108
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 25 2025-26 TOR at LAC TOR 94 – 119 LAC
Jan 16 2025-26 LAC at TOR LAC 121 – 117 TOR
Feb 2 2024-25 LAC at TOR LAC 108 – 115 TOR
Nov 9 2024-25 TOR at LAC TOR 103 – 105 LAC
Jan 26 2023-24 LAC at TOR LAC 127 – 107 TOR