The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

LAC 1–3@MIN 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 44 percent, MIN 56 percent. LAC Clippers 44% proj. 113 · final 101 MIN Timberwolves · home 56% proj. 115 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 113 101 −12
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 115 127 +12

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MINWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+2.2 LACMIN without Anthony Edwards (33 ppg).
  • Recent form+1.5 MINLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIN scores 108.2 and allows 111.0; LAC scores 109.8 and allows 111.7.
  • Team strength+1.2 MINElo MIN 1587, LAC 1512; season margin MIN +4.8, LAC +0.6.

Together: MIN by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN is 3–2, winning by 13 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 108). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Edwards (33 ppg) is out.

LAC is 1–3, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 108). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.4% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.5.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIN; left favors LAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability −2.2, Recent form +1.5, Team strength +1.2, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +2.9 for MIN. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability −2.2 Recent form +1.5 Team strength +1.2 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +2.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.9. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLACMINEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15121587 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +146 +1.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.6+4.8 +0.2
Games played this season 45 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.8108.2 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.7111.0 +0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.7 +0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.033.3 −2.2
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIN ptsLAC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court145.7+0.71−0.95+1.66
Rotation points missing (home)33.3−1.14+0.17−1.31
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.8−0.06−1.04+0.98
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.0−0.38−1.35+0.97
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.35+0.50−0.84
Games played (away)4.0+0.26+0.98−0.72
Combined pace, last 10101.7+3.16+2.58+0.58
Season scoring margin (home)4.8+0.20−0.35+0.55
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.2−0.78−0.24−0.54
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.7−0.65−0.15−0.49
Season scoring margin (away)0.6−0.24+0.09−0.33
Elo rating (home)1587.5+0.03−0.24+0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.23+0.04+0.19
Games played (home)5.0+0.00+0.12−0.12
Elo rating (away)1511.8−0.12−0.01−0.10
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.04−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1512MIN15871.8 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1512

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 4 games: −17.4
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9
  • L@OKC101–108−2.8
  • LLAL87–103−15.5

MIN1587

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 5 games: +34.7
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
  • LGSW114–119−13.3
Season scoring marginLAC+0.6MIN+4.80.6 pts toward LAC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+0.6

Scores 106.5, allows 108.0 over 4 games: −1.5 a game.

20% this season (−1.5) + 80% last season (+1.1) = +0.6

MIN+4.8

Scores 120.4, allows 107.8 over 5 games: +12.6 a game.

25% this season (+12.6) + 75% last season (+2.2) = +4.8

Offensive rating, last 10LAC109.8MIN108.20.4 pts toward MIN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)15.0%12.2%−4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else+0.9

MIN108.2scored, −6.4 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10LAC111.7MIN111.00.5 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC111.7allowed, −2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210−0.7
Everything else+1.4

MIN111.0allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.210−0.8
Everything else+1.6
Pace, last 10average 101.70.6 pts toward MIN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 100.2 and MIN 103.2 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0MIN33.32.2 pts toward LAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysMIN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 28 against LAL.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 28 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28LAL87–10326-7410-3125-27241289.7105.197.5
Oct 25@OKC101–10837-8115-3812-1526899.0105.9102.0
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28GSW114–11940-9015-4519-27157105.6110.2108.0
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +26 for MIN
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
19th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACMIN
Final score101127
Field goals35–85 · 41.2%51–95 · 53.7%
Three-pointers12–30 · 40.0%18–42 · 42.9%
Free throws19–22 · 86.4%7–11 · 63.6%
Rebounds4243
Assists2432
Turnovers1711
Steals77
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+2+26+24
Total points228228±0
LAC points113101−12
MIN points115127+12

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs LAL L 87–103
Oct 25 at OKC L 101–108
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs GSW L 114–119
Oct 26 at CLE L 125–127
Oct 25 vs TOR W 117–94
Oct 23 at ORL W 115–93
Oct 21 at MIA W 131–106

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 11 2025-26 MIN at LAC MIN 128 – 153 LAC
Feb 26 2025-26 MIN at LAC MIN 94 – 88 LAC
Feb 8 2025-26 LAC at MIN LAC 115 – 96 MIN
Dec 6 2025-26 LAC at MIN LAC 106 – 109 MIN
Jan 6 2024-25 LAC at MIN LAC 106 – 108 MIN