The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

DEN 2–2@PHX 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 53 percent, PHX 47 percent. DEN Nuggets 53% proj. 114 · final 127 PHX Suns · home 47% proj. 113 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 114 127 +13
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 113 120 +7

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

  • Home court+2.1 PHXWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.6 DENElo PHX 1503, DEN 1565; season margin PHX −1.6, DEN +2.9.
  • Recent form+1.7 DENLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHX scores 110.6 and allows 121.2; DEN scores 107.9 and allows 112.6.

Together: DEN by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 2–2, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 114). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.6, getting to the line +1.8. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions.

PHX is 1–2, losing by 14 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 124). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.6, offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHX; left favors DEN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.6, Recent form −1.7, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.1, Player availability +0.1, giving −1.7 for PHX. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.6 Recent form −1.7 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.1 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin −1.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −1.7. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDENPHXEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15651503 −0.0
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +8 −1.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.9−1.6 −0.8
Games played this season 43 +0.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.9110.6 +0.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.6121.2 −1.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.9 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 24 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHX ptsDEN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court8.4−0.83+0.97−1.80
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)121.2+0.28+1.76−1.47
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.9−0.07−1.00+0.93
Combined pace, last 1098.0−2.53−1.63−0.89
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.76−0.07+0.83
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.17+0.56−0.73
Season scoring margin (home)-1.6−0.36+0.27−0.64
Games played (home)3.0+0.57+0.13+0.44
Games played (away)4.0+0.22+0.65−0.43
Home series wins0.0+0.37+0.11+0.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.6−0.23−0.03−0.20
Season scoring margin (away)2.9+0.03+0.18−0.15
Rest days (home)4.0+0.10−0.02+0.12
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.6−0.19−0.09−0.10
Elo rating (home)1503.3−0.08+0.00−0.08
Series pressure0.0+0.08−0.01+0.08
Elo rating (away)1565.0+0.11+0.03+0.08
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1565PHX15031.8 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1565

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 4 games: −26.2
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
  • LGSW114–134−32.3
  • W@NOP104–91+9.0

PHX1503

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. This season's 3 games: −20.0
  • L@POR83–124−22.0
  • WGSW131–122+5.2
  • L@OKC114–125−3.2
Season scoring marginDEN+2.9PHX−1.60.8 pts toward DEN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+2.9

Scores 110.8, allows 114.0 over 4 games: −3.3 a game.

20% this season (−3.3) + 80% last season (+4.5) = +2.9

PHX−1.6

Scores 109.3, allows 123.7 over 3 games: −14.3 a game.

15% this season (−14.3) + 85% last season (+0.6) = −1.6

Offensive rating, last 10DEN107.9PHX110.60.7 pts toward PHX

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN107.9scored, −6.7 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.6%54.5%−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.3%26.1%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2720.210+1.8
Everything else−0.3

PHX110.6scored, −4.0 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.5%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.210−1.2
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10DEN112.6PHX121.21.6 pts toward DEN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN112.6allowed, −2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210+0.1
Everything else−0.4

PHX121.2allowed, +6.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.5%−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.7%26.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 97.90.9 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 99.3 and PHX 96.6 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0PHX0.00.1 pts toward PHX

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysPHX4 days0.1 pts toward PHX

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 28 against NOP.

PHX4days

Last played Oct 26 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@NOP104–9137-8012-3118-19175104.090.1100.5
Oct 26GSW114–13442-8410-2920-231110117.5139.696.5
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5
Apr 23@MIN96–11328-828-3232-4010695.0111.9101.0
Apr 20MIN114–11938-8615-4123-3095110.7116.7102.5
Apr 18MIN116–10538-8710-3630-33138113.7101.9102.5

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@OKC114–12539-9118-5018-251214117.5127.697.5
Oct 24GSW131–12250-8614-3717-22159129.7119.6101.5
Oct 21@POR83–12430-846-3217-23151386.5126.597.0
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5
Apr 19@OKC84–11929-8313-3913-18171390.3129.392.5
Apr 12@OKC135–10356-10120-413-61113137.8105.198.0
Apr 10@LAL73–10126-777-4014-21231781.1112.290.0
Apr 8DAL112–10742-9114-3514-171012117.9112.695.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner
DEN was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −7 for PHX
59th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENPHX
Final score127120
Field goals42–80 · 52.5%46–94 · 48.9%
Three-pointers20–37 · 54.1%18–42 · 42.9%
Free throws23–30 · 76.7%10–11 · 90.9%
Rebounds4042
Assists3034
Turnovers1815
Steals1110
Blocks35

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)−1−7−6
Total points227247+20
DEN points114127+13
PHX points113120+7

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at NOP W 104–91
Oct 26 vs GSW L 114–134
Oct 24 vs NOP W 141–135
Oct 22 at OKC L 84–96
Apr 30 at MIN L 98–110

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at OKC L 114–125
Oct 24 vs GSW W 131–122
Oct 21 at POR L 83–124
Apr 27 vs OKC L 122–131
Apr 25 vs OKC L 109–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 24 2025-26 DEN at PHX DEN 125 – 123 PHX
Nov 29 2025-26 DEN at PHX DEN 130 – 112 PHX
Oct 25 2025-26 PHX at DEN PHX 111 – 133 DEN
Mar 7 2024-25 PHX at DEN PHX 141 – 149 DEN
Feb 8 2024-25 DEN at PHX DEN 122 – 105 PHX