2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET
TOR 4–3@DEN 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | 115 | 109 | −6 |
| DEN Denver Nuggets (home) | 112 | 128 | +16 |
Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | TOR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 109 | 128 |
| Field goals | 41–85 · 48.2% | 48–78 · 61.5% |
| Three-pointers | 12–34 · 35.3% | 9–23 · 39.1% |
| Free throws | 15–22 · 68.2% | 23–27 · 85.2% |
| Rebounds | 29 | 36 |
| Assists | 29 | 35 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 15 |
| Steals | 10 | 11 |
| Blocks | 1 | 1 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Denver Nuggets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DEN) | −3 | +19 | +22 |
| Total points | 227 | 237 | +10 |
| TOR points | 115 | 109 | −6 |
| DEN points | 112 | 128 | +16 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Toronto Raptors
- Out Kawhi Leonard
- Out Nate Bittle
- Questionable Jakob Poeltl · Left Shoulder Bursitis
Denver Nuggets
- Out Julian Strawther · Left Knee Sprain
- Out Spencer Jones
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 2025-26 | TOR at DEN | TOR 115 – 121 DEN |
| Dec 31 2025-26 | DEN at TOR | DEN 106 – 103 TOR |
| Nov 4 2024-25 | TOR at DEN | TOR 119 – 121 DEN |
| Oct 28 2024-25 | DEN at TOR | DEN 127 – 125 TOR |
| Mar 11 2023-24 | TOR at DEN | TOR 119 – 125 DEN |