The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 8

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

UTA 1–8@MIN 7–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 12 percent, MIN 88 percent. UTA Jazz 12% proj. 106 · final 100 MIN Timberwolves · home 88% proj. 123 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 106 100 −6
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 123 115 −8

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 88% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MINWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+9.5 MINElo MIN 1615, UTA 1294; season margin MIN +6.4, UTA −9.7.
  • Recent form+4.3 MINLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIN scores 116.5 and allows 105.7; UTA scores 103.2 and allows 115.5.
  • Player availability+0.3 MINUTA without Lauri Markkanen (18 ppg) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg); MIN without Anthony Edwards (33 ppg).

Together: MIN by 17, a 88% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN is 7–3, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 108). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +2.1, getting to the line −1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Edwards (33 ppg) is out.

UTA is 1–8, losing by 11 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 118). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.2. Their defense forces turnovers on 11.8% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone costs about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.8. Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are out (34 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIN; left favors UTA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +9.5, Recent form +4.3, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +16.4 for MIN. -20-100+10+20 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +9.5 Recent form +4.3 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +16.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +16.4. The 88% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputUTAMINEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12941615 +1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +391 +7.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.7+6.4 +1.9
Games played this season 910 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 103.2116.5 +1.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.5105.7 +1.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.1 +1.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 34.333.3 +0.3
Rest days 22 ±0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIN ptsUTA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court391.2+4.69−2.39+7.08
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)105.7−0.55−2.33+1.77
Season scoring margin (away)-9.7+0.65−0.63+1.28
Rotation points missing (away)34.3+0.39−0.87+1.25
Combined pace, last 10101.1+3.35+2.22+1.13
Rotation points missing (home)33.3−0.81+0.11−0.91
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)103.2−1.02−1.87+0.84
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.5+0.67−0.17+0.84
Elo rating (away)1293.9+0.69−0.11+0.81
Season scoring margin (home)6.4+0.38−0.21+0.59
Games played (away)9.0−0.12+0.31−0.44
Elo rating (home)1615.1+0.02−0.35+0.38
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.5−0.13+0.12−0.24
Games played (home)10.0−0.18+0.01−0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.18+0.04+0.14
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.03+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.00±0.00+0.00
Elimination game0+0.00±0.00+0.00
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01−0.01+0.00
Rest days (away)2.0+0.02+0.02−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1294MIN16158.3 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1294

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 9 games: −42.6
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
  • WNOP120–119+4.4
  • LLAL123–132−4.5
  • LMEM105–110−7.8
  • LSAS111–117−1.9
  • LPOR90–112−10.0
  • L@SAS97–119−1.7
  • L@NOP113–120−3.4
  • L@DAL100–112−4.9

MIN1615

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 10 games: +62.3
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
  • LGSW114–119−13.3
  • WLAC127–101+10.7
  • L@SAS111–121−5.3
  • WMIL112–100+2.5
  • W@HOU117–107+14.6
  • W@NOP115–109+5.1
Season scoring marginUTA−9.7MIN+6.41.3 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−9.7

Scores 106.9, allows 118.2 over 9 games: −11.3 a game.

45% this season (−11.3) + 55% last season (−8.4) = −9.7

MIN+6.4

Scores 118.4, allows 107.7 over 10 games: +10.7 a game.

50% this season (+10.7) + 50% last season (+2.2) = +6.4

Offensive rating, last 10UTA103.2MIN116.51.7 pts toward MIN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

UTA103.2scored, −8.9 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.7%53.2%−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%13.2%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%27.2%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.225−0.1
Everything else−0.8

MIN116.5scored, +4.5 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%53.2%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%13.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.9%27.2%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.225−1.3
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10UTA115.5MIN105.71.5 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

UTA115.5allowed, +3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%53.2%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%13.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%27.2%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2860.225−1.8
Everything else−0.3

MIN105.7allowed, −6.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%53.2%+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%13.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%27.2%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.225+0.2
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 101.11.1 pts toward MIN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 101.5 and MIN 100.7 → average 101.1 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingUTA34.3MIN33.30.3 pts toward MIN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA34.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lauri Markkanen18.030.98
Jaren Jackson Jr.16.226.14

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 11 rotation players.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysMIN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Nov 6 against DAL.

MIN2days

Last played Nov 6 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6@DAL100–11236-8215-3913-1421899.0109.8101.5
Nov 4@NOP113–12041-9411-4720-302015102.7111.198.7
Nov 2@SAS97–11934-9612-3417-22111796.0117.8101.0
Oct 31POR90–11229-7811-4021-2619788.2108.7102.5
Oct 28SAS111–11739-9215-3918-191912102.8108.397.8
Oct 26MEM105–11038-9210-3319-251314104.0110.0100.5
Oct 25LAL123–13246-9510-3521-271720120.6130.7101.5
Oct 23NOP120–11941-8413-3525-331814117.6116.7102.0
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6@NOP115–10938-8812-3927-371117119.8111.297.0
Nov 4@HOU117–10746-8715-3510-191715119.4110.397.5
Nov 2MIL112–10041-9616-4514-261121113.1102.098.5
Oct 31@SAS111–12140-939-3322-261413111.0121.0100.0
Oct 30LAC127–10151-9518-427-111112127.0102.099.5
Oct 28GSW114–11940-9015-4519-27157105.6110.2108.0
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
88%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast +17, actual +15 for MIN
146th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.13 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTAMIN
Final score100115
Field goals37–87 · 42.5%38–77 · 49.4%
Three-pointers7–24 · 29.2%12–32 · 37.5%
Free throws19–24 · 79.2%27–32 · 84.4%
Rebounds3745
Assists2118
Turnovers1322
Steals108
Blocks33

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+17+15−2
Total points229215−14
UTA points106100−6
MIN points123115−8

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Utah Jazz

  • Out Jaren Jackson Jr. · Right MCLTear
  • Out Jusuf Nurkić
  • Out Lauri Markkanen · Right Wrist Sprain

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Out Anthony Edwards
  • Out Donte DiVincenzo

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 at DAL L 100–112
Nov 4 at NOP L 113–120
Nov 2 at SAS L 97–119
Oct 31 vs POR L 90–112
Oct 28 vs SAS L 111–117

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 at NOP W 115–109
Nov 4 at HOU W 117–107
Nov 2 vs MIL W 112–100
Oct 31 at SAS L 111–121
Oct 30 vs LAC W 127–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 18 2025-26 UTA at MIN UTA 111 – 147 MIN
Jan 20 2025-26 MIN at UTA MIN 122 – 127 UTA
Nov 10 2025-26 MIN at UTA MIN 120 – 113 UTA
Nov 7 2025-26 UTA at MIN UTA 97 – 137 MIN
Apr 13 2024-25 UTA at MIN UTA 105 – 116 MIN