The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIL 1–5@MIN 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 20 percent, MIN 80 percent. MIL Bucks 20% proj. 110 · final 100 MIN Timberwolves · home 80% proj. 122 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 110 100 −10
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 122 112 −10

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MINWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.1 MINElo MIN 1593, MIL 1342; season margin MIN +5.4, MIL −8.3.
  • Recent form+4.3 MINLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIN scores 112.6 and allows 109.8; MIL scores 108.8 and allows 119.9.
  • Player availability+1.7 MILMIN without Anthony Edwards (33 ppg).

Together: MIN by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN is 4–3, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 109). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.9. Anthony Edwards (33 ppg) is out.

MIL is 1–5, losing by 13 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 126). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.2% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line −1.3, offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.8.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIN; left favors MIL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +7.1, Recent form +4.3, Player availability −1.7, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +12.1 for MIN. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +7.1 Recent form +4.3 Player availability −1.7 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +12.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +12.1. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMILMINEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13421593 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +321 +5.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.3+5.4 +2.2
Games played this season 67 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.8112.6 +1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.9109.8 +2.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.1 +0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.033.3 −1.7
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIN ptsMIL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court320.9+2.27−2.80+5.07
Season scoring margin (away)-8.3+0.84−0.87+1.72
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)119.9+1.72+0.05+1.67
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.8−0.04−1.25+1.21
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.46−1.45+0.99
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.40+0.49−0.89
Rotation points missing (home)33.3−0.61+0.16−0.77
Games played (away)6.0+0.16+0.78−0.62
Combined pace, last 10102.1+3.46+2.86+0.60
Season scoring margin (home)5.4+0.16−0.28+0.44
Elo rating (away)1341.9+0.31−0.13+0.44
Elo rating (home)1592.8+0.01−0.22+0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.02+0.23
Games played (home)7.0−0.04+0.10−0.15
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.6−0.34−0.19−0.15
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.05−0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.02±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1342MIN15935.7 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 6 games: −40.9
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
  • WIND110–102+7.8
  • LHOU100–132−11.2
  • LCLE111–136−10.3

MIN1593

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 7 games: +40.1
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
  • LGSW114–119−13.3
  • WLAC127–101+10.7
  • L@SAS111–121−5.3
Season scoring marginMIL−8.3MIN+5.41.4 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−8.3

Scores 113.0, allows 126.2 over 6 games: −13.2 a game.

30% this season (−13.2) + 70% last season (−6.2) = −8.3

MIN+5.4

Scores 120.0, allows 108.7 over 7 games: +11.3 a game.

35% this season (+11.3) + 65% last season (+2.2) = +5.4

Offensive rating, last 10MIL108.8MIN112.61.1 pts toward MIN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL108.8scored, −5.8 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1640.210−1.3
Everything else−1.7

MIN112.6scored, −2.0 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.210−0.6
Everything else−0.0
Defensive rating, last 10MIL119.9MIN109.82.7 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL119.9allowed, +5.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210−0.8
Everything else+0.6

MIN109.8allowed, −4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.210−0.5
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 102.10.6 pts toward MIN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 102.2 and MIN 102.1 → average 102.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0MIN33.31.7 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysMIN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Oct 31 against CLE.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 31 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31CLE111–13641-10017-5112-181315105.7129.5105.0
Oct 28HOU100–13237-9312-4114-18161598.0129.4102.0
Oct 26IND110–10241-9513-4415-211116104.899.0104.0
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@SAS111–12140-939-3322-261413111.0121.0100.0
Oct 30LAC127–10151-9518-427-111112127.0102.099.5
Oct 28GSW114–11940-9015-4519-27157105.6110.2108.0
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
0 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual +12 for MIN
133rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
145th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILMIN
Final score100112
Field goals38–99 · 38.4%41–96 · 42.7%
Three-pointers15–49 · 30.6%16–45 · 35.6%
Free throws9–12 · 75.0%14–26 · 53.8%
Rebounds5359
Assists2423
Turnovers1611
Steals57
Blocks89

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+12+12±0
Total points232212−20
MIL points110100−10
MIN points122112−10

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs CLE L 111–136
Oct 28 vs HOU L 100–132
Oct 26 vs IND W 110–102
Oct 24 at PHI L 116–127
Oct 23 vs CHI L 125–132

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at SAS L 111–121
Oct 30 vs LAC W 127–101
Oct 28 vs GSW L 114–119
Oct 26 at CLE L 125–127
Oct 25 vs TOR W 117–94

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 13 2025-26 MIN at MIL MIN 139 – 106 MIL
Dec 21 2025-26 MIL at MIN MIL 100 – 103 MIN
Apr 8 2024-25 MIN at MIL MIN 103 – 110 MIL
Feb 12 2024-25 MIL at MIN MIL 103 – 101 MIN
Feb 23 2023-24 MIL at MIN MIL 112 – 107 MIN