2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
UTA 1–7@DAL 4–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Jazz | 114 | 100 | −14 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) | 121 | 112 | −9 |
Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | UTA | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1299 | 1426 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +198 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −9.6 | −3.2 |
| Games played this season | 8 | 8 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 105.4 | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 112.9 | 115.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 16.3 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingUTA1299DAL1426
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
UTA1299
- Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
- This season's 8 games: −37.7
- L@MEM103–123−12.8
- WNOP120–119+4.4
- LLAL123–132−4.5
- LMEM105–110−7.8
- LSAS111–117−1.9
- LPOR90–112−10.0
- L@SAS97–119−1.7
- L@NOP113–120−3.4
DAL1426
- Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
- This season's 8 games: +38.5
- L@HOU110–128−4.9
- W@IND121–105+17.8
- LSAS106–122−5.7
- W@MIA113–109+10.3
- WOKC120–96+36.4
- WHOU116–111+9.8
- LSAC100–115−24.4
- L@SAS111–112−0.8
Season scoring marginUTA−9.6DAL−3.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
UTA−9.6
Scores 107.8, allows 119.0 over 8 games: −11.3 a game.
40% this season (−11.3) + 60% last season (−8.4) = −9.6
DAL−3.2
Scores 112.1, allows 112.2 over 8 games: −0.1 a game.
40% this season (−0.1) + 60% last season (−5.3) = −3.2
Offensive rating, last 10UTA105.4DAL115.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).
UTA105.4scored, −6.7 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.7% | 53.3% | −3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.1% | 13.3% | −1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.1% | 27.1% | +0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.214 | 0.226 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | −2.2 |
DAL115.6scored, +3.5 vs league
| Factor | DAL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.9% | 53.3% | +2.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 13.3% | +1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.3% | 27.1% | +0.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.194 | 0.226 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10UTA112.9DAL115.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).
UTA112.9allowed, +0.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.8% | 53.3% | +0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.0% | 13.3% | −1.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.9% | 27.1% | +1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.267 | 0.226 | −1.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
DAL115.5allowed, +3.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.8% | 53.3% | +0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 13.3% | −2.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 32.0% | 27.1% | −2.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.226 | +0.6 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Pace, last 10average 102.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
UTA 103.5 and DAL 100.8 → average 102.1 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)
Rotation points missingUTA16.3DAL0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
UTA16.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 16.2 | 26.1 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 11 rotation players.
DAL0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestUTA2 daysDAL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
UTA2days
Last played Nov 4 against NOP.
DAL2days
Last played Nov 4 against SAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @NOP | 113–120 | 41-94 | 11-47 | 20-30 | 20 | 15 | 102.7 | 111.1 | 98.7 |
| Nov 2 | @SAS | 97–119 | 34-96 | 12-34 | 17-22 | 11 | 17 | 96.0 | 117.8 | 101.0 |
| Oct 31 | POR | 90–112 | 29-78 | 11-40 | 21-26 | 19 | 7 | 88.2 | 108.7 | 102.5 |
| Oct 28 | SAS | 111–117 | 39-92 | 15-39 | 18-19 | 19 | 12 | 102.8 | 108.3 | 97.8 |
| Oct 26 | MEM | 105–110 | 38-92 | 10-33 | 19-25 | 13 | 14 | 104.0 | 110.0 | 100.5 |
| Oct 25 | LAL | 123–132 | 46-95 | 10-35 | 21-27 | 17 | 20 | 120.6 | 130.7 | 101.5 |
| Oct 23 | NOP | 120–119 | 41-84 | 13-35 | 25-33 | 18 | 14 | 117.6 | 116.7 | 102.0 |
| Oct 21 | @MEM | 103–123 | 35-75 | 11-32 | 22-33 | 18 | 5 | 99.0 | 118.3 | 104.0 |
| Apr 12 | @LAL | 107–131 | 41-94 | 7-34 | 18-27 | 16 | 14 | 101.9 | 123.6 | 105.5 |
| Apr 10 | MEM | 147–101 | 62-110 | 15-35 | 8-17 | 16 | 8 | 121.5 | 83.5 | 121.0 |
DAL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @SAS | 111–112 | 39-102 | 14-37 | 19-26 | 8 | 18 | 112.1 | 114.3 | 98.5 |
| Nov 2 | SAC | 100–115 | 32-78 | 7-33 | 29-35 | 16 | 10 | 103.1 | 119.8 | 96.5 |
| Oct 30 | HOU | 116–111 | 42-81 | 12-33 | 20-27 | 17 | 12 | 116.0 | 109.9 | 100.5 |
| Oct 28 | OKC | 120–96 | 46-97 | 16-45 | 12-15 | 9 | 15 | 122.4 | 98.0 | 98.0 |
| Oct 26 | @MIA | 113–109 | 43-94 | 14-46 | 13-14 | 16 | 13 | 110.8 | 105.8 | 102.5 |
| Oct 24 | SAS | 106–122 | 45-87 | 11-28 | 5-8 | 18 | 8 | 103.9 | 118.4 | 102.5 |
| Oct 23 | @IND | 121–105 | 44-88 | 14-34 | 19-23 | 14 | 11 | 121.0 | 105.0 | 100.0 |
| Oct 21 | @HOU | 110–128 | 41-80 | 11-38 | 17-26 | 21 | 8 | 111.1 | 130.6 | 98.5 |
| Apr 12 | CHI | 149–128 | 52-100 | 22-49 | 23-27 | 18 | 15 | 134.2 | 114.3 | 111.5 |
| Apr 10 | @SAS | 120–139 | 45-98 | 15-40 | 15-19 | 7 | 12 | 121.2 | 139.0 | 99.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | UTA | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 100 | 112 |
| Field goals | 36–82 · 43.9% | 39–93 · 41.9% |
| Three-pointers | 15–39 · 38.5% | 9–32 · 28.1% |
| Free throws | 13–14 · 92.9% | 25–31 · 80.6% |
| Rebounds | 41 | 55 |
| Assists | 25 | 23 |
| Turnovers | 21 | 15 |
| Steals | 7 | 11 |
| Blocks | 7 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Dallas Mavericks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DAL) | +7 | +12 | +5 |
| Total points | 235 | 212 | −23 |
| UTA points | 114 | 100 | −14 |
| DAL points | 121 | 112 | −9 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Utah Jazz
- Out Jaren Jackson Jr. · Right MCLTear
- Out Jusuf Nurkić
Dallas Mavericks
- Out Dereck Lively II · Right Foot Surgery
- Out Sergio de Larrea · Right Knee Sprain
- Out Tarik Biberovic · Right Heel Bursitis
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17 2025-26 | UTA at DAL | UTA 120 – 138 DAL |
| Jan 15 2025-26 | UTA at DAL | UTA 122 – 144 DAL |
| Jan 8 2025-26 | DAL at UTA | DAL 114 – 116 UTA |
| Dec 15 2025-26 | DAL at UTA | DAL 133 – 140 UTA |
| Nov 30 2024-25 | DAL at UTA | DAL 106 – 94 UTA |