The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

ORL 1–3@TOR 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 26 percent, TOR 74 percent. ORL Magic 26% proj. 106 · final 121 TOR Raptors · home 74% proj. 115 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 106 121 +15
TOR Toronto Raptors (home) 115 114 −1

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans TOR

  • Home court+2.1 TORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+3.5 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: TOR scores 111.7 and allows 105.7; ORL scores 101.7 and allows 111.1.
  • Team strength+1.8 TORElo TOR 1559, ORL 1512; season margin TOR +5.0, ORL −2.1.
  • Player availability+1.5 TORORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg) and Jalen Suggs (8 ppg); TOR without Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg).

Together: TOR by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

TOR is 3–1, winning by 15 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 102). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +5, free throws allowed −1.5. Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg) is out.

ORL is 1–3, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 120). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 48% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 10 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.0, offensive rebounding −1.5. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.0, defensive rebounding −1.8. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs are out (32 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors TOR; left favors ORL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +3.5, Team strength +1.8, Player availability +1.5, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +9.1 for TOR. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +3.5 Team strength +1.8 Player availability +1.5 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +9.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.1. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputORLTOREffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15121559 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +117 +1.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.1+5.0 +0.8
Games played this season 44 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 101.7111.7 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.1105.7 +2.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2 +1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 32.519.5 +1.5
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueTOR ptsORL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)105.7−0.47−2.28+1.81
Elo gap incl. home court117.0+0.57−0.82+1.39
Rotation points missing (away)32.5−0.11−1.16+1.04
Combined pace, last 1099.2−0.05−1.06+1.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)101.7−0.68−1.34+0.66
Games played (away)4.0+0.27+0.89−0.62
Season scoring margin (away)-2.1+0.50+0.03+0.46
Rotation points missing (home)19.5+0.45+0.03+0.41
Elo rating (home)1559.0+0.07−0.25+0.32
Season scoring margin (home)5.0+0.09−0.22+0.31
Home series wins0.0+0.31+0.05+0.26
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.1+0.06−0.16+0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)111.7−0.33−0.13−0.21
Elo rating (away)1512.0−0.10−0.01−0.09
Games played (home)4.0+0.16+0.11+0.05
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.04−0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.06−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1512TOR15591.6 pts toward TOR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1512

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 4 games: −25.8
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0
  • W@NYK111–102+19.8
  • L@TOR99–129−15.5

TOR1559

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 4 games: +18.5
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
  • WORL129–99+15.5
Season scoring marginORL−2.1TOR+5.00.2 pts toward TOR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−2.1

Scores 107.0, allows 119.5 over 4 games: −12.5 a game.

20% this season (−12.5) + 80% last season (+0.5) = −2.1

TOR+5.0

Scores 117.5, allows 102.5 over 4 games: +15.0 a game.

20% this season (+15.0) + 80% last season (+2.5) = +5.0

Offensive rating, last 10ORL101.7TOR111.70.5 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL101.7scored, −12.9 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)47.6%54.5%−10.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2510.210+1.2
Everything else−0.2

TOR111.7scored, −2.9 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.5%−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.210+0.2
Everything else+1.3
Defensive rating, last 10ORL111.1TOR105.72.0 pts toward TOR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL111.1allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.0%26.1%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210−1.0
Everything else−0.5

TOR105.7allowed, −8.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.5%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)16.2%12.2%+5.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.210−1.5
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 99.21.0 pts toward TOR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 98.3 and TOR 100.1 → average 99.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingORL32.5TOR19.51.5 pts toward TOR

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL32.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82
Jalen Suggs8.033.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysTOR2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Oct 28 against TOR.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 28 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@TOR99–12933-8010-3523-2920998.0125.2102.0
Oct 25@NYK111–10238-8818-4217-211510112.1102.099.5
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0
Apr 22@DET83–9826-808-3223-32171383.899.099.0

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28ORL129–9944-8815-3526-31148125.298.0102.0
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5
Apr 20@CLE105–11542-837-2614-172212107.1116.298.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
26%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
the forecast favored TOR
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −7 for TOR
6th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
38th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLTOR
Final score121114
Field goals39–74 · 52.7%46–91 · 50.5%
Three-pointers18–34 · 52.9%11–27 · 40.7%
Free throws25–29 · 86.2%11–15 · 73.3%
Rebounds3238
Assists3031
Turnovers1311
Steals55
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)+9−7−16
Total points221235+14
ORL points106121+15
TOR points115114−1

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at TOR L 99–129
Oct 25 at NYK W 111–102
Oct 23 vs MIN L 93–115
Oct 21 vs ATL L 125–132
May 3 at DET L 94–116

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs ORL W 129–99
Oct 25 at MIN L 94–117
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92
May 3 at CLE L 102–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 28 2026-27 ORL at TOR ORL 99 – 129 TOR
Mar 29 2025-26 ORL at TOR ORL 87 – 139 TOR
Jan 30 2025-26 TOR at ORL TOR 120 – 130 ORL
Dec 29 2025-26 ORL at TOR ORL 106 – 107 TOR
Mar 4 2024-25 TOR at ORL TOR 114 – 113 ORL