The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

TOR 2–0@MIN 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 41 percent, MIN 59 percent. TOR Raptors 41% proj. 114 · final 94 MIN Timberwolves · home 59% proj. 117 · final 117
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 114 94 −20
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 117 117 ±0

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MINWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+0.6 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIN scores 108.2 and allows 112.6; TOR scores 114.7 and allows 106.9.
  • Team strength+0.5 MINElo MIN 1593, TOR 1555; season margin MIN +4.3, TOR +4.9.

Together: MIN by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN is 2–0, winning by 24 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 100). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.3. Their defense lets opponents rebound 22% of their misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.6, forcing turnovers +1.2.

TOR is 2–0, winning by 26 a game on average (scoring 124, allowing 97). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense is close to league average on all four factors. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +4, free throws allowed −1.6.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIN; left favors TOR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −0.6, Team strength +0.5, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +2.5 for MIN. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −0.6 Team strength +0.5 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +2.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.5. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputTORMINEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15551593 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +108 +1.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.9+4.3 −0.1
Games played this season 22 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.7108.2 −1.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 106.9112.6 −0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8 +0.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.3
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIN ptsTOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court108.3+0.35−0.88+1.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)106.9−1.36−0.20−1.16
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.82−0.22+1.04
Games played (away)2.0+0.11+0.94−0.83
Combined pace, last 10100.8+3.11+2.29+0.82
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.30+0.48−0.78
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.6−0.42−1.17+0.75
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.2−0.87−0.23−0.64
Season scoring margin (away)4.9−0.35+0.18−0.53
Season scoring margin (home)4.3+0.18−0.28+0.46
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.7+0.06+0.41−0.35
Elo rating (home)1593.4+0.01−0.19+0.20
Home series wins0.0+0.19+0.04+0.15
Elo rating (away)1555.1−0.11−0.01−0.10
Games played (home)2.0+0.55+0.49+0.07
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.03+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1555MIN15931.3 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1555

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 2 games: +14.6
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6

MIN1593

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 2 games: +40.7
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
Season scoring marginTOR+4.9MIN+4.30.8 pts toward TOR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+4.9

Scores 123.5, allows 97.0 over 2 games: +26.5 a game.

10% this season (+26.5) + 90% last season (+2.5) = +4.9

MIN+4.3

Scores 123.0, allows 99.5 over 2 games: +23.5 a game.

10% this season (+23.5) + 90% last season (+2.2) = +4.3

Offensive rating, last 10TOR114.7MIN108.21.0 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR114.7scored, +0.1 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210+0.8
Everything else±0.0

MIN108.2scored, −6.4 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.4%54.5%−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210−0.5
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10TOR106.9MIN112.60.4 pts toward TOR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR106.9allowed, −7.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)15.1%12.2%+4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2650.210−1.6
Everything else+0.6

MIN112.6allowed, −2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%26.1%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210−0.8
Everything else+1.5
Pace, last 10average 100.80.8 pts toward MIN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 99.9 and MIN 101.6 → average 100.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingTOR0.0MIN0.00.3 pts toward MIN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysMIN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 23 against WAS.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 23 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5
Apr 20@CLE105–11542-837-2614-172212107.1116.298.5
Apr 18@CLE113–12637-7113-2726-35174115.3127.398.5
Apr 12BKN136–10151-8012-2722-29103136.0101.0100.0

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0
Apr 27@DEN113–12541-8112-2819-23259109.7122.5102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +23 for MIN
70th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORMIN
Final score94117
Field goals35–91 · 38.5%43–77 · 55.8%
Three-pointers10–38 · 26.3%15–31 · 48.4%
Free throws14–21 · 66.7%16–25 · 64.0%
Rebounds3449
Assists2026
Turnovers1623
Steals1510
Blocks67

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+3+23+20
Total points231211−20
TOR points11494−20
MIN points117117±0

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92
May 3 at CLE L 102–114
May 1 vs CLE W 112–110
Apr 29 at CLE L 120–125

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at ORL W 115–93
Oct 21 at MIA W 131–106
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139
May 12 at SAS L 97–126
May 10 vs SAS W 114–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 5 2025-26 TOR at MIN TOR 107 – 115 MIN
Feb 4 2025-26 MIN at TOR MIN 128 – 126 TOR
Nov 21 2024-25 MIN at TOR MIN 105 – 110 TOR
Oct 26 2024-25 TOR at MIN TOR 101 – 112 MIN
Apr 3 2023-24 TOR at MIN TOR 85 – 133 MIN