The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

OKC 4–2@CLE 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 41 percent, CLE 59 percent. OKC Thunder 41% proj. 110 · final 117 CLE Cavaliers · home 59% proj. 113 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 110 117 +7
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 113 112 −1

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

  • Home court+2.1 CLEWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.1 OKCElo CLE 1579, OKC 1656; season margin CLE +3.5, OKC +7.3.
  • Player availability+2.6 CLEOKC without Jalen Williams (14 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (12 ppg) and 2 more; CLE without Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg).
  • Recent form+1.0 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CLE scores 109.9 and allows 115.1; OKC scores 105.7 and allows 111.2.

Together: CLE by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 4–2, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 116). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.9. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg) is out.

OKC is 4–2, losing by 0 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 107). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 48% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.3. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are out (41 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CLE; left favors OKC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −3.1, Player availability +2.6, Recent form +1.0, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +2.8 for CLE. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −3.1 Player availability +2.6 Recent form +1.0 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +2.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.8. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputOKCCLEEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16561579 −0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −7 −2.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.3+3.5 −0.5
Games played this season 66 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.7109.9 +0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.2115.1 −1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2 +1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 41.37.8 +2.6
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCLE ptsOKC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-7.0−1.32+0.80−2.13
Rotation points missing (away)41.3+0.33−1.38+1.71
Combined pace, last 1099.2+0.00−1.22+1.22
Season scoring margin (away)7.3−0.87+0.29−1.16
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)105.7−0.09−1.12+1.03
Rotation points missing (home)7.8+0.78−0.07+0.86
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)115.1+0.23+0.95−0.72
Season scoring margin (home)3.5+0.31−0.36+0.67
Games played (away)6.0+0.17+0.62−0.45
Elo rating (away)1656.0−0.50−0.11−0.39
Elo rating (home)1579.0+0.06−0.25+0.30
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.9−0.47−0.22−0.26
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.2−0.32−0.07−0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.11+0.17
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.04
Games played (home)6.0+0.04+0.00+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02±0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1656CLE15792.2 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1656

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 6 games: −26.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2
  • L@DAL96–120−36.4
  • L@HOU98–119−17.0

CLE1579

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 6 games: +5.3
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
  • WMIN127–125+4.3
  • WWAS121–111+2.0
  • L@ATL111–114−4.7
  • W@MIL136–111+10.3
Season scoring marginOKC+7.3CLE+3.50.9 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+7.3

Scores 106.5, allows 107.0 over 6 games: −0.5 a game.

30% this season (−0.5) + 70% last season (+10.7) = +7.3

CLE+3.5

Scores 121.0, allows 116.0 over 6 games: +5.0 a game.

30% this season (+5.0) + 70% last season (+2.8) = +3.5

Offensive rating, last 10OKC105.7CLE109.90.8 pts toward CLE

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC105.7scored, −8.9 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.4%54.5%−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210−0.2
Everything else−0.1

CLE109.9scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210+0.3
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10OKC111.2CLE115.11.0 pts toward OKC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC111.2allowed, −3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.6%54.5%+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else−1.8

CLE115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%26.1%±0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210+0.7
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 99.21.2 pts toward CLE

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.3 and CLE 100.2 → average 99.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3CLE7.82.6 pts toward CLE

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Alex Caruso9.218.94
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

CLE7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaylon Tyson7.820.75

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysCLE2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 31 against HOU.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 31 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@HOU98–11937-8510-3214-151310104.3126.694.0
Oct 28@DAL96–12036-875-3219-23131298.0122.498.0
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@MIL136–11152-10020-4612-181114129.5105.7105.0
Oct 29@ATL111–11438-8713-4222-2999113.3116.398.0
Oct 28WAS121–11143-9114-3821-221315127.4119.494.0
Oct 26MIN127–12546-10218-4517-231213112.4112.6101.4
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −5 for CLE
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCCLE
Final score117112
Field goals42–98 · 42.9%40–90 · 44.4%
Three-pointers12–31 · 38.7%18–49 · 36.7%
Free throws21–23 · 91.3%14–24 · 58.3%
Rebounds5446
Assists1831
Turnovers87
Steals57
Blocks43

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+3−5−8
Total points223229+6
OKC points110117+7
CLE points113112−1

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at HOU L 98–119
Oct 28 at DAL L 96–120
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at MIL W 136–111
Oct 29 at ATL L 111–114
Oct 28 vs WAS W 121–111
Oct 26 vs MIN W 127–125
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 CLE at OKC CLE 113 – 121 OKC
Jan 19 2025-26 OKC at CLE OKC 136 – 104 CLE
Jan 16 2024-25 CLE at OKC CLE 114 – 134 OKC
Jan 8 2024-25 OKC at CLE OKC 122 – 129 CLE
Nov 8 2023-24 CLE at OKC CLE 120 – 128 OKC