2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 4–3@OKC 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	110	116	+6
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	113	124	+11

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

61%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

5 pts

margin miss

forecast +3, actual +8 for OKC

77th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

102nd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	OKC
Final score	116	124
Field goals	40–93 · 43.0%	41–89 · 46.1%
Three-pointers	19–49 · 38.8%	15–36 · 41.7%
Free throws	17–19 · 89.5%	27–35 · 77.1%
Rebounds	45	47
Assists	19	25
Turnovers	12	9
Steals	5	7
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+3	+8	+5
Total points	223	240	+17
CLE points	110	116	+6
OKC points	113	124	+11

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.