2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
MIL 1–6@BOS 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks | 110 | 102 | −8 |
| BOS Boston Celtics (home) | 118 | 109 | −9 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 102 | 109 |
| Field goals | 35–85 · 41.2% | 37–91 · 40.7% |
| Three-pointers | 19–47 · 40.4% | 16–39 · 41.0% |
| Free throws | 13–19 · 68.4% | 19–25 · 76.0% |
| Rebounds | 45 | 54 |
| Assists | 28 | 24 |
| Turnovers | 14 | 12 |
| Steals | 6 | 8 |
| Blocks | 4 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Boston Celtics
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (BOS) | +8 | +7 | −1 |
| Total points | 228 | 211 | −17 |
| MIL points | 110 | 102 | −8 |
| BOS points | 118 | 109 | −9 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Milwaukee Bucks
- Questionable Kam Jones · Right Ankle Sprain
Boston Celtics
- Out Devin Carter · Illness
- Out Jayson Tatum · Rest
- Questionable Payton Pritchard
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3 2025-26 | BOS at MIL | BOS 133 – 101 MIL |
| Mar 2 2025-26 | BOS at MIL | BOS 108 – 81 MIL |
| Feb 1 2025-26 | MIL at BOS | MIL 79 – 107 BOS |
| Dec 11 2025-26 | BOS at MIL | BOS 101 – 116 MIL |
| Dec 6 2024-25 | MIL at BOS | MIL 105 – 111 BOS |