2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks

Tuesday, January 13, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIN 0–3@MIL 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	115	139	+24
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	116	106	−10

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1615	1457
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−88
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.1	−2.2
Games played this season	40	39
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.2	115.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.7	113.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	38.7	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1615MIL1457

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1615

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 30 games: −8.1
Last 10 games: −19.6

L@DEN138–142−4.6
LBKN107–123−32.4
W@CHI136–101+17.4
L@ATL102–126−27.4
W@MIA125–115+11.2
W@WAS141–115+8.2
WMIA122–94+11.3
WCLE131–122+5.6
L@CLE134–146−11.8
WSAS104–103+2.9

MIL1457

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 29 games: −131.9
Last 10 games: +46.9

W@IND111–94+17.6
L@MEM104–125−9.0
W@CHI112–103+13.8
W@CHA123–113+12.1
LWAS113–114−7.5
WCHA122–121+2.5
W@SAC115–98+14.4
L@GSW113–120−4.0
W@LAL105–101+9.8
L@DEN104–108−2.8

Season scoring marginMIN+5.1MIL−2.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+5.1

Scores 119.9, allows 114.8 over 40 games: +5.1 a game.

MIL−2.2

Scores 112.9, allows 115.1 over 39 games: −2.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN119.2MIL115.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN119.2scored, +4.4 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.0%	54.5%	+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.3%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.214	−0.7
Everything else			−2.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIL115.9scored, +1.1 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.5%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.3%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.214	−0.4
Everything else			−1.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MIN114.7MIL113.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN114.7allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.5%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.3%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.214	+0.7
Everything else			−0.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIL113.4allowed, −1.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.5%	+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.3%	−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.214	+0.1
Everything else			+0.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 99.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 102.8 and MIL 96.8 → average 99.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingMIN38.7MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN38.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Edwards	29.2	35.0	10
Rudy Gobert	9.5	31.5	10

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-13 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-13 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Jan 11 against SAS.

MIL2days

Last played Jan 11 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 11	SAS	104–103	39-90	12-39	14-25	9	–	105.1	103.0	99.5
Jan 10	@CLE	134–146	51-89	16-32	16-20	15	–	130.1	141.7	103.0
Jan 8	CLE	131–122	51-89	20-38	9-17	17	–	124.8	117.3	104.5
Jan 6	MIA	122–94	45-98	14-39	18-23	12	–	109.9	84.7	111.0
Jan 4	@WAS	141–115	55-98	11-37	20-27	14	–	134.3	109.5	105.0
Jan 3	@MIA	125–115	46-85	11-38	22-25	14	–	126.3	116.2	99.0
Dec 31	@ATL	102–126	37-87	14-40	14-18	14	–	102.0	127.3	99.5
Dec 29	@CHI	136–101	51-95	15-37	19-25	3	–	130.8	98.1	103.5
Dec 27	BKN	107–123	37-83	13-31	20-28	11	–	110.3	129.5	96.0
Dec 25	@DEN	138–142	51-104	12-45	24-30	13	–	117.9	119.3	106.9

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 11	@DEN	104–108	38-85	14-34	14-20	9	–	108.3	116.1	94.5
Jan 9	@LAL	105–101	38-79	12-34	17-22	16	–	112.9	106.3	94.0
Jan 7	@GSW	113–120	46-85	14-32	7-12	12	–	118.9	123.7	96.0
Jan 4	@SAC	115–98	39-87	10-37	27-30	13	–	117.3	100.0	98.0
Jan 2	CHA	122–121	45-87	16-37	16-18	11	–	125.8	124.7	97.0
Dec 31	WAS	113–114	41-89	16-39	15-22	15	–	114.1	116.3	98.5
Dec 29	@CHA	123–113	44-84	16-34	19-22	8	–	129.5	121.5	94.0
Dec 27	@CHI	112–103	40-86	13-36	19-24	10	–	116.7	105.1	97.0
Dec 26	@MEM	104–125	36-84	14-39	18-24	22	–	103.0	125.0	100.5
Dec 23	@IND	111–94	42-82	10-30	17-24	15	–	112.1	94.9	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored MIL

34 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual −33 for MIL

325th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

26th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.76 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	MIL
Final score	139	106
Field goals	55–92 · 59.8%	41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers	22–42 · 52.4%	13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws	7–12 · 58.3%	11–19 · 57.9%
Rebounds	44	32
Assists	37	29
Turnovers	15	19
Steals	9	12
Blocks	2	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	+1	−33	−34
Total points	231	245	+14
MIN points	115	139	+24
MIL points	116	106	−10

Recent form before this game