The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MIL 0–2@PHI 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 24 percent, PHI 76 percent. MIL Bucks 24% proj. 109 · final 116 PHI 76ers · home 76% proj. 119 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 109 116 +7
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 119 127 +8

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans PHI

  • Home court+2.1 PHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.6 PHIElo PHI 1547, MIL 1359; season margin PHI −0.5, MIL −6.5.
  • Recent form+0.8 PHILast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHI scores 107.8 and allows 115.1; MIL scores 114.7 and allows 119.6.
  • Player availability+0.4 MILPHI without LeBron James (16 ppg).

Together: PHI by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

PHI is 2–0, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 103). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −4, ball security +1.4. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. LeBron James (16 ppg) is out.

MIL is 0–2, losing by 10 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 130). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −4, getting to the line −1.3. Their defense forces turnovers on 9.8% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.5, free throws allowed −1.0. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHI; left favors MIL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.6, Recent form +0.8, Player availability −0.4, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +9.4 for PHI. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.6 Recent form +0.8 Player availability −0.4 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +9.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.4. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMILPHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13591547 +0.9
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +259 +5.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.5−0.5 +1.1
Games played this season 22 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.7107.8 −0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.6115.1 +0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.8 +0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.015.5 −0.4
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHI ptsMIL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court258.5+1.89−3.20+5.09
Season scoring margin (away)-6.5+0.76−0.72+1.48
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)119.6+1.58+0.12+1.46
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)115.1+0.13+1.00−0.87
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.28+0.53−0.81
Elo rating (away)1359.0+0.30−0.34+0.64
Games played (away)2.0+0.12+0.74−0.62
Season scoring margin (home)-0.5−0.25+0.17−0.42
Rotation points missing (home)15.5+0.48+0.10+0.38
Combined pace, last 1098.8−1.17−1.51+0.34
Home series wins0.0+0.34+0.04+0.30
Elo rating (home)1547.5+0.07−0.21+0.28
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.7+0.04+0.20−0.15
Games played (home)2.0+0.66+0.55+0.11
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Rest days (away)1.0+0.03+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.8−0.60−0.60−0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1359PHI15476.0 pts toward PHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1359

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 2 games: −23.8
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7

PHI1547

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 2 games: +23.9
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
Season scoring marginMIL−6.5PHI−0.50.5 pts toward PHI

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−6.5

Scores 120.5, allows 130.0 over 2 games: −9.5 a game.

10% this season (−9.5) + 90% last season (−6.2) = −6.5

PHI−0.5

Scores 110.0, allows 103.0 over 2 games: +7.0 a game.

10% this season (+7.0) + 90% last season (−1.3) = −0.5

Offensive rating, last 10MIL114.7PHI107.80.2 pts toward MIL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL114.7scored, +0.1 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.7%12.2%−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210−1.3
Everything else−0.7

PHI107.8scored, −6.8 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.5%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.2%26.1%−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.210+1.1
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10MIL119.6PHI115.10.6 pts toward PHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIL119.6allowed, +5.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%12.2%−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.210−1.0
Everything else+0.3

PHI115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+1.5
Pace, last 10average 98.80.3 pts toward PHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 99.8 and PHI 97.7 → average 98.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0PHI15.50.4 pts toward MIL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHI15.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
LeBron James15.533.62

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIL1 daysPHI2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against CHI.

PHI2days

Last played Oct 22 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0
Apr 8@DET111–13736-8617-5022-281313119.4145.793.5
Apr 7@BKN90–9635-8115-455-819996.8103.293.0
Apr 5MEM131–11550-8316-3215-242010129.7112.7101.5
Apr 3BOS101–13335-8321-4710-13138109.8141.593.0
Apr 1@HOU113–11942-8917-4012-161513121.5125.394.0
Mar 31DAL123–9941-9220-5421-261612111.890.8109.5

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5
May 4@NYK98–13730-7311-3027-3419899.0139.898.5
May 2@BOS109–10039-8211-2820-2393116.0105.394.5
Apr 30BOS106–9339-8911-3317-19108107.193.099.5
Apr 28@BOS113–9739-7815-4220-2395120.2103.294.0
Apr 26BOS96–12833-809-3021-2486102.1139.193.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
76%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
PHI was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual +11 for PHI
124th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILPHI
Final score116127
Field goals42–90 · 46.7%40–98 · 40.8%
Three-pointers11–34 · 32.4%19–44 · 43.2%
Free throws21–28 · 75.0%28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds6240
Assists2026
Turnovers2211
Steals514
Blocks43

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)+10+11+1
Total points228243+15
MIL points109116+7
PHI points119127+8

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs CHI L 125–132
Oct 21 at WAS L 116–128
Apr 12 at PHI L 106–126
Apr 10 vs BKN W 125–108
Apr 8 at DET L 111–137

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 vs CLE W 114–106
Oct 20 at NYK W 106–100
May 10 vs NYK L 114–144
May 8 vs NYK L 94–108
May 6 at NYK L 102–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 MIL at PHI MIL 106 – 126 PHI
Jan 27 2025-26 MIL at PHI MIL 122 – 139 PHI
Dec 5 2025-26 PHI at MIL PHI 116 – 101 MIL
Nov 20 2025-26 PHI at MIL PHI 123 – 114 MIL
Apr 3 2024-25 MIL at PHI MIL 126 – 113 PHI