The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 0–1@CLE 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 20 percent, CLE 80 percent. BKN Nets 20% proj. 106 · final 121 CLE Cavaliers · home 80% proj. 118 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 106 121 +15
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 118 125 +7

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

  • Home court+2.1 CLEWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.4 CLEElo CLE 1566, BKN 1312; season margin CLE +2.3, BKN −9.8.
  • Recent form+2.4 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CLE scores 108.3 and allows 114.2; BKN scores 104.6 and allows 118.6.

Together: CLE by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 0–1, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 114). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −3, getting to the line +1.7. Their defense lets opponents rebound 29% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.2 points per 100 possessions.

BKN is 0–1, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 103, allowing 110). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 14% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.1.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CLE; left favors BKN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.4, Recent form +2.4, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +11.3 for CLE. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.4 Recent form +2.4 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +11.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +11.3. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBKNCLEEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13121566 +0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +324 +5.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.8+2.3 +1.8
Games played this season 11 −1.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 104.6108.3 +1.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.6114.2 +1.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.8 −0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 32 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCLE ptsBKN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court323.9+2.13−3.22+5.36
Season scoring margin (away)-9.8+0.79−0.71+1.50
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)118.6+1.55+0.13+1.42
Games played (away)1.0+0.15+1.10−0.95
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)104.6−0.08−1.01+0.93
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.70−0.12+0.81
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.23+0.53−0.76
Elo rating (away)1312.0+0.08−0.42+0.50
Games played (home)1.0+0.63+1.10−0.48
Home series wins0.0+0.30+0.03+0.27
Elo rating (home)1565.8+0.04−0.22+0.27
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.22−0.03+0.25
Combined pace, last 1097.8−2.72−2.55−0.18
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.2+0.13−0.04+0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.3−0.44−0.49+0.06
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.03+0.00+0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.02−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1312CLE15666.1 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1312

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 1 game: −3.0
  • LCHA103–110−3.0

CLE1566

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 1 game: −7.9
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
Season scoring marginBKN−9.8CLE+2.30.3 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−9.8

Scores 103.0, allows 110.0 over 1 game: −7.0 a game.

5% this season (−7.0) + 95% last season (−10.0) = −9.8

CLE+2.3

Scores 106.0, allows 114.0 over 1 game: −8.0 a game.

5% this season (−8.0) + 95% last season (+2.8) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10BKN104.6CLE108.31.0 pts toward CLE

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN104.6scored, −10.0 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)14.3%26.1%−5.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.210−0.0
Everything else+1.1

CLE108.3scored, −6.3 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.5%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.2%−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%26.1%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2700.210+1.7
Everything else−1.4
Defensive rating, last 10BKN118.6CLE114.21.6 pts toward CLE

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN118.6allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.7%54.5%−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else+2.3

CLE114.2allowed, −0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.210+0.4
Everything else+0.7
Pace, last 10average 97.80.2 pts toward BKN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 98.7 and CLE 96.8 → average 97.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN0.0CLE0.00.1 pts toward CLE

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestBKN3 daysCLE2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN3days

Last played Oct 21 against CHA.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 22 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5
Mar 31CHA86–11728-737-3523-2714490.5123.295.0
Mar 29SAC116–9942-8517-4115-20158122.1103.195.5
Mar 27@LAL99–11640-9610-399-151411100.0118.498.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3
May 17@DET125–9443-8511-3428-441114125.094.0100.0
May 15DET94–11530-7712-3522-302016100.0122.394.0
May 13@DET117–11336-8014-3531-381613118.2116.588.8
May 11DET112–10334-7814-4130-341312120.4110.893.0
May 9DET116–10943-7412-3218-28155119.6114.796.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner
CLE was the forecast favorite
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual +4 for CLE
133rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNCLE
Final score121125
Field goals39–98 · 39.8%40–79 · 50.6%
Three-pointers20–49 · 40.8%16–38 · 42.1%
Free throws23–27 · 85.2%29–38 · 76.3%
Rebounds4845
Assists2331
Turnovers1823
Steals118
Blocks110

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+12+4−8
Total points224246+22
BKN points106121+15
CLE points118125+7

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136
Apr 10 at MIL L 108–125
Apr 9 vs IND L 94–123
Apr 7 vs MIL W 96–90

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 at PHI L 106–114
May 25 vs NYK L 93–130
May 23 vs NYK L 108–121
May 21 at NYK L 93–109
May 19 at NYK L 104–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2025-26 CLE at BKN CLE 106 – 102 BKN
Feb 19 2025-26 BKN at CLE BKN 84 – 112 CLE
Oct 24 2025-26 CLE at BKN CLE 131 – 124 BKN
Mar 11 2024-25 BKN at CLE BKN 104 – 109 CLE
Feb 20 2024-25 CLE at BKN CLE 110 – 97 BKN