The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 20

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

BOS 0–0@DET 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 50 percent, DET 50 percent. BOS Celtics 50% proj. 108 · final 113 DET Pistons · home 50% proj. 107 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 108 113 +5
DET Detroit Pistons (home) 107 121 +14

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 50% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
50%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual +8 for DET
48th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSDET
Final score113121
Field goals40–88 · 45.5%39–86 · 45.3%
Three-pointers17–42 · 40.5%15–40 · 37.5%
Free throws16–21 · 76.2%28–32 · 87.5%
Rebounds3949
Assists2827
Turnovers1417
Steals107
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DET)−1+8+9
Total points215234+19
BOS points108113+5
DET points107121+14

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-10-20 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Boston Celtics

  • Out Devin Carter · Illness

Detroit Pistons

  • Out Taurean Prince · Personal Reasons

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
May 2 vs PHI L 100–109
Apr 30 at PHI L 93–106
Apr 28 vs PHI L 97–113
Apr 26 at PHI W 128–96
Apr 24 at PHI W 108–100

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
May 17 vs CLE L 94–125
May 15 at CLE W 115–94
May 13 vs CLE L 113–117
May 11 at CLE L 103–112
May 9 at CLE L 109–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 19 2025-26 BOS at DET BOS 103 – 104 DET
Dec 15 2025-26 DET at BOS DET 112 – 105 BOS
Nov 26 2025-26 DET at BOS DET 114 – 117 BOS
Oct 26 2025-26 BOS at DET BOS 113 – 119 DET
Feb 26 2024-25 BOS at DET BOS 97 – 117 DET