2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons

Sunday, May 17, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 1–4@DET 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	100	125	+25
DET Detroit Pistons (home)	109	94	−15

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	DET
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1605	1681
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+146
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.5	+7.6
Games played this season	95	94
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.1	111.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.3	108.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	94.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	3 home series wins, elimination game

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1605DET1681

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1605

Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
First 85 games: −36.1
Last 10 games: +0.4

L@TOR89–93−5.8
WTOR125–120+4.5
L@TOR110–112−4.4
WTOR114–102+7.5
L@DET101–111−5.7
L@DET97–107−5.4
WDET116–109+9.2
WDET112–103+10.0
W@DET117–113+9.5
LDET94–115−19.0

DET1681

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 84 games: +132.1
Last 10 games: +17.1

L@ORL88–94−8.5
WORL116–109+4.4
W@ORL93–79+11.9
WORL116–94+7.9
WCLE111–101+5.7
WCLE107–97+5.4
L@CLE109–116−9.2
L@CLE103–112−10.0
LCLE113–117−9.5
W@CLE115–94+19.0

Season scoring marginCLE+3.5DET+7.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+3.5

Scores 118.1, allows 114.7 over 95 games: +3.5 a game.

DET+7.6

Scores 116.1, allows 108.5 over 94 games: +7.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE111.1DET111.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

CLE111.1scored, −3.6 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.6%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.4%	12.2%	−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.5%	26.1%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.271	0.210	+1.8
Everything else			−0.8

DET

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Defensive rating, last 10CLE115.3DET108.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

CLE

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

DET

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Pace, last 10average 94.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingCLE0.0DET0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-17 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-17 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysDET2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played May 15 against DET.

DET2days

Last played May 15 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 15	DET	94–115	30-77	12-35	22-30	20	16	100.0	122.3	94.0
May 13	@DET	117–113	36-80	14-35	31-38	16	13	118.2	116.5	88.8
May 11	DET	112–103	34-78	14-41	30-34	13	12	120.4	110.8	93.0
May 9	DET	116–109	43-74	12-32	18-28	15	5	119.6	114.7	96.0
May 7	@DET	97–107	34-81	7-32	22-27	11	9	107.8	118.9	90.0
May 5	@DET	101–111	36-80	14-38	15-16	19	11	106.3	116.8	95.0
May 3	TOR	114–102	38-85	11-39	27-37	16	20	116.3	104.1	98.0
May 1	@TOR	110–112	40-93	11-41	19-27	18	19	107.8	110.9	91.9
Apr 29	TOR	125–120	43-81	18-36	21-28	14	4	122.5	118.8	101.5
Apr 26	@TOR	89–93	32-87	10-40	15-23	17	16	91.8	94.9	97.5

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 15	@CLE	115–94	43-82	16-36	13-19	17	13	122.3	100.0	94.0
May 13	CLE	113–117	42-95	11-33	18-20	10	15	116.5	118.2	88.8
May 11	@CLE	103–112	42-83	10-23	9-12	18	11	110.8	120.4	93.0
May 9	@CLE	109–116	41-91	9-25	18-22	15	17	114.7	119.6	96.0
May 7	CLE	107–97	39-80	14-28	15-20	10	12	118.9	107.8	90.0
May 5	CLE	111–101	37-84	10-26	27-35	11	16	116.8	106.3	95.0
May 3	ORL	116–94	41-80	16-33	18-22	13	11	126.1	102.2	92.0
May 1	@ORL	93–79	32-80	9-27	20-26	10	14	105.7	89.8	88.0
Apr 29	ORL	116–109	39-80	10-28	28-35	17	16	120.8	111.2	97.0
Apr 27	@ORL	88–94	31-82	6-30	20-28	20	12	89.8	94.9	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

the forecast favored DET

40 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −31 for DET

53rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

13th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.34 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	DET
Final score	125	94
Field goals	43–85 · 50.6%	30–85 · 35.3%
Three-pointers	11–34 · 32.4%	12–39 · 30.8%
Free throws	28–44 · 63.6%	22–29 · 75.9%
Rebounds	50	41
Assists	31	21
Turnovers	11	14
Steals	10	7
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DET)	+9	−31	−40
Total points	209	219	+10
CLE points	100	125	+25
DET points	109	94	−15

Recent form before this game