The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

DET 2–0@PHI 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 62 percent, PHI 38 percent. DET Pistons 62% proj. 113 · final 106 PHI 76ers · home 38% proj. 109 · final 93
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 113 106 −7
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 109 93 −16

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

  • Home court+2.1 PHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.3 DETElo PHI 1551, DET 1628; season margin PHI +0.1, DET +7.7.
  • Recent form+1.0 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHI scores 109.1 and allows 111.7; DET scores 116.5 and allows 112.0.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 DETPHI 1 days of rest, DET 2. PHI on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: DET by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 2–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 124, allowing 112). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.8, forcing turnovers +1.5. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out.

PHI is 3–0, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 107). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −4, ball security +1.3. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. Joel Embiid (22 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHI; left favors DET.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −4.3, Recent form −1.0, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.2, giving −3.6 for PHI. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −4.3 Recent form −1.0 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.2 Projected margin −3.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −3.6. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDETPHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16281551 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −7 −2.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.7+0.1 −1.9
Games played this season 23 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.5109.1 −0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.0111.7 +0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.3 −1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.021.7 −0.2
Rest days 21 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.3
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHI ptsDET ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-7.1−0.96+1.46−2.42
Season scoring margin (away)7.7−1.20+0.23−1.43
Combined pace, last 1097.3−3.33−2.30−1.02
Rotation points missing (away)13.0−0.04+0.58−0.63
Games played (away)2.0+0.16+0.70−0.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.7−0.37−0.82+0.45
Season scoring margin (home)0.1−0.21+0.23−0.44
Rotation points missing (home)21.7+0.44+0.05+0.39
Elo rating (away)1628.0+0.18−0.09+0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.39+0.12+0.27
Rest days (home)1.0−0.25+0.01−0.26
Back-to-back (home)1−0.23+0.03−0.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.1−0.32−0.08−0.23
Elo rating (home)1550.8−0.00−0.19+0.19
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)116.5+0.00+0.16−0.16
Games played (home)3.0+0.33+0.22+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.08+0.02+0.06
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.0−0.12−0.10−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1628PHI15512.0 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1628

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 2 games: +18.8
  • WBOS121–113+6.7
  • W@MIA128–111+12.1

PHI1551

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 3 games: +27.3
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
  • WMIL127–116+3.4
Season scoring marginDET+7.7PHI+0.12.3 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+7.7

Scores 124.5, allows 112.0 over 2 games: +12.5 a game.

10% this season (+12.5) + 90% last season (+7.2) = +7.7

PHI+0.1

Scores 115.7, allows 107.3 over 3 games: +8.3 a game.

15% this season (+8.3) + 85% last season (−1.3) = +0.1

Offensive rating, last 10DET116.5PHI109.10.4 pts toward DET

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET116.5scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.5%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.1%26.1%+2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else+0.1

PHI109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.5%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.8%26.1%−3.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2500.210+1.1
Everything else+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10DET112.0PHI111.70.4 pts toward PHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET112.0allowed, −2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2740.210−1.8
Everything else+0.8

PHI111.7allowed, −2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+2.6
Pace, last 10average 97.31.0 pts toward DET

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 95.2 and PHI 99.5 → average 97.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET13.0PHI21.70.2 pts toward DET

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Duren13.019.12

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

PHI21.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid21.734.73

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysPHI1 days0.5 pts toward DET

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Oct 23 against MIA.

PHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 24 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@MIA128–11147-8918-3816-201912125.5107.8102.5
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0
May 9@CLE109–11641-919-2518-221517114.7119.696.0
May 7CLE107–9739-8014-2815-201012118.9107.890.0
May 5CLE111–10137-8410-2627-351116116.8106.395.0
May 3ORL116–9441-8016-3318-221311126.1102.292.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24MIL127–11640-9819-4428-341111115.5104.5110.5
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5
May 4@NYK98–13730-7311-3027-3419899.0139.898.5
May 2@BOS109–10039-8211-2820-2393116.0105.394.5
Apr 30BOS106–9339-8911-3317-19108107.193.099.5
Apr 28@BOS113–9739-7815-4220-2395120.2103.294.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
62%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual −13 for PHI
80th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.48 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETPHI
Final score10693
Field goals38–87 · 43.7%36–90 · 40.0%
Three-pointers14–34 · 41.2%7–27 · 25.9%
Free throws16–25 · 64.0%14–23 · 60.9%
Rebounds5437
Assists2522
Turnovers1510
Steals410
Blocks108

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−4−13−9
Total points222199−23
DET points113106−7
PHI points10993−16

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at MIA W 128–111
Oct 20 vs BOS W 121–113
May 17 vs CLE L 94–125
May 15 at CLE W 115–94
May 13 vs CLE L 113–117

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs MIL W 127–116
Oct 22 vs CLE W 114–106
Oct 20 at NYK W 106–100
May 10 vs NYK L 114–144
May 8 vs NYK L 94–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 4 2025-26 DET at PHI DET 116 – 93 PHI
Mar 12 2025-26 PHI at DET PHI 109 – 131 DET
Nov 14 2025-26 PHI at DET PHI 105 – 114 DET
Nov 9 2025-26 DET at PHI DET 111 – 108 PHI
Feb 7 2024-25 PHI at DET PHI 112 – 125 DET