2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Sunday, March 29, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET
ORL 3–3@TOR 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORL Orlando Magic | 116 | 87 | −29 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors (home) | 117 | 139 | +22 |
Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | ORL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1528 | 1521 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +63 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.2 | +1.7 |
| Games played this season | 74 | 73 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 119.6 | 116.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 122.6 | 116.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 23.1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingORL1528TOR1521
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
ORL1528
- Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
- First 64 games: +46.8
- Last 10 games: −23.4
- WCLE128–122+8.1
- WWAS136–131+1.2
- W@MIA121–117+8.5
- L@ATL112–124−10.0
- LOKC108–113−5.1
- L@CHA111–130−8.5
- LLAL104–105−4.3
- LIND126–128−11.6
- L@CLE131–136−3.5
- WSAC121–117+1.8
TOR1521
- Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
- First 63 games: +99.3
- Last 10 games: +1.3
- L@HOU99–113−7.3
- L@NOP111–122−12.4
- WPHX122–115+7.5
- WDET119–108+14.3
- W@CHI139–109+17.4
- L@DEN115–121−4.9
- L@PHX98–120−14.8
- W@UTA143–127+8.1
- L@LAC94–119−13.4
- WNOP119–106+6.8
Season scoring marginORL+1.2TOR+1.7
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
ORL+1.2
Scores 116.1, allows 114.9 over 74 games: +1.2 a game.
TOR+1.7
Scores 114.0, allows 112.3 over 73 games: +1.7 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10ORL119.6TOR116.5
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
ORL119.6scored, +4.9 vs league
| Factor | ORL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.6% | −0.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 12.2% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.8% | 26.1% | −0.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.267 | 0.210 | +1.6 | |
| Everything else | +2.1 |
TOR116.5scored, +1.9 vs league
| Factor | TOR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.6% | +3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.2% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.6% | 26.1% | −0.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.202 | 0.210 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −1.5 |
Defensive rating, last 10ORL122.6TOR116.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
ORL122.6allowed, +7.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.6% | 54.6% | −4.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.2% | 12.2% | −2.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.9% | 26.1% | +0.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.241 | 0.210 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
TOR116.7allowed, +2.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.6% | −3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.2% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.0% | 26.1% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.238 | 0.210 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | +1.9 |
Pace, last 10average 99.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
ORL 99.1 and TOR 99.4 → average 99.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingORL0.0TOR23.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
ORL0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
TOR23.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immanuel Quickley | 13.7 | 32.0 | 7 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 9.3 | 17.7 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestORL3 daysTOR2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
ORL3days
Last played Mar 26 against SAC.
TOR2days
Last played Mar 27 against NOP.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
ORL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | SAC | 121–117 | 40-74 | 13-27 | 28-32 | 12 | 7 | 128.7 | 123.2 | 94.5 |
| Mar 24 | @CLE | 131–136 | 41-84 | 14-39 | 35-38 | 9 | 13 | 136.5 | 141.7 | 96.0 |
| Mar 23 | IND | 126–128 | 48-94 | 12-34 | 18-24 | 11 | 9 | 128.6 | 132.0 | 97.5 |
| Mar 21 | LAL | 104–105 | 36-83 | 11-37 | 21-23 | 16 | 12 | 108.3 | 110.5 | 95.5 |
| Mar 19 | @CHA | 111–130 | 39-93 | 14-42 | 19-21 | 14 | 11 | 114.4 | 131.3 | 98.0 |
| Mar 17 | OKC | 108–113 | 37-93 | 17-50 | 17-20 | 12 | 10 | 106.9 | 113.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 16 | @ATL | 112–124 | 40-95 | 14-43 | 18-23 | 11 | 8 | 106.7 | 119.2 | 104.5 |
| Mar 14 | @MIA | 121–117 | 44-89 | 10-32 | 23-25 | 19 | 11 | 115.2 | 111.4 | 105.0 |
| Mar 12 | WAS | 136–131 | 47-100 | 15-34 | 27-34 | 13 | 11 | 117.2 | 114.9 | 104.2 |
| Mar 11 | CLE | 128–122 | 44-85 | 12-35 | 28-37 | 6 | 8 | 133.3 | 128.4 | 95.5 |
TOR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | NOP | 119–106 | 48-93 | 10-28 | 13-18 | 13 | 13 | 119.0 | 106.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 25 | @LAC | 94–119 | 40-96 | 10-29 | 4-11 | 11 | 15 | 98.9 | 125.3 | 95.0 |
| Mar 23 | @UTA | 143–127 | 54-88 | 20-37 | 15-28 | 15 | 6 | 131.2 | 115.5 | 109.5 |
| Mar 22 | @PHX | 98–120 | 37-75 | 9-28 | 15-22 | 19 | 7 | 101.0 | 125.0 | 96.5 |
| Mar 20 | @DEN | 115–121 | 44-86 | 10-31 | 17-23 | 10 | 11 | 121.1 | 126.0 | 95.5 |
| Mar 18 | @CHI | 139–109 | 48-84 | 14-33 | 29-33 | 18 | 6 | 129.9 | 100.9 | 107.5 |
| Mar 15 | DET | 119–108 | 44-91 | 8-28 | 23-30 | 10 | 20 | 125.3 | 113.7 | 95.0 |
| Mar 13 | PHX | 122–115 | 46-86 | 14-27 | 16-20 | 10 | 8 | 127.1 | 118.6 | 96.5 |
| Mar 11 | @NOP | 111–122 | 39-94 | 14-44 | 19-25 | 11 | 14 | 108.8 | 118.4 | 102.5 |
| Mar 10 | @HOU | 99–113 | 34-78 | 9-36 | 22-28 | 13 | 7 | 103.1 | 117.7 | 96.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | ORL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 87 | 139 |
| Field goals | 31–82 · 37.8% | 54–94 · 57.4% |
| Three-pointers | 9–38 · 23.7% | 13–29 · 44.8% |
| Free throws | 16–19 · 84.2% | 18–22 · 81.8% |
| Rebounds | 36 | 44 |
| Assists | 20 | 41 |
| Turnovers | 27 | 10 |
| Steals | 4 | 20 |
| Blocks | 1 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Toronto Raptors
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (TOR) | +1 | +52 | +51 |
| Total points | 233 | 226 | −7 |
| ORL points | 116 | 87 | −29 |
| TOR points | 117 | 139 | +22 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 2025-26 | TOR at ORL | TOR 120 – 130 ORL |
| Dec 29 2025-26 | ORL at TOR | ORL 106 – 107 TOR |
| Mar 4 2024-25 | TOR at ORL | TOR 114 – 113 ORL |
| Mar 2 2024-25 | TOR at ORL | TOR 104 – 102 ORL |
| Jan 21 2024-25 | ORL at TOR | ORL 93 – 109 TOR |