2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
MIL 4–6@BKN 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks | 112 | 90 | −22 |
| BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) | 111 | 96 | −15 |
Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIL | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1352 | 1283 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +0 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −6.1 | −9.5 |
| Games played this season | 78 | 78 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 109.3 | 104.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 123.2 | 117.4 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 68.3 | 43.6 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIL1352BKN1283
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIL1352
- Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
- First 68 games: −163.8
- Last 10 games: −25.7
- L@UTA96–128−23.6
- W@PHX108–105+10.9
- L@LAC96–129−7.7
- L@POR99–130−9.1
- LSAS95–127−5.2
- LLAC113–127−6.8
- WDAL123–99+15.1
- L@HOU113–119−1.8
- LBOS101–133−7.2
- WMEM131–115+9.7
BKN1283
- Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
- First 68 games: −41.3
- Last 10 games: −16.5
- LOKC92–121−4.0
- LNYK92–93−1.0
- L@SAC122–126−4.2
- L@POR99–134−7.2
- L@GSW106–109−1.8
- L@LAL99–116−2.1
- WSAC116–99+13.2
- LCHA86–117−6.6
- LATL107–141−8.0
- WWAS121–115+5.2
Season scoring marginMIL−6.1BKN−9.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIL−6.1
Scores 110.8, allows 116.8 over 78 games: −6.1 a game.
BKN−9.5
Scores 106.2, allows 115.8 over 78 games: −9.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIL109.3BKN104.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
MIL109.3scored, −5.5 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.6% | 54.6% | +3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 16.2% | 12.2% | −5.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.8% | 26.0% | −0.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.151 | 0.210 | −1.7 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
BKN104.3scored, −10.5 vs league
| Factor | BKN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.7% | 54.6% | −4.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.3% | 12.2% | −3.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 14.6% | 26.0% | −5.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.213 | 0.210 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.9 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIL123.2BKN117.4
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
MIL123.2allowed, +8.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.5% | 54.6% | −7.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 12.2% | −1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.8% | 26.0% | +0.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.217 | 0.210 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
BKN117.4allowed, +2.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.8% | 54.6% | −6.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.3% | 12.2% | +4.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.4% | 26.0% | −1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.290 | 0.210 | −2.3 | |
| Everything else | +3.1 |
Pace, last 10average 99.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIL 98.5 and BKN 99.8 → average 99.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingMIL68.3BKN43.6
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIL68.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 21.4 | 29.7 | 7 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 13.8 | 22.7 | 5 |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 12.8 | 23.0 | 8 |
| Bobby Portis | 11.0 | 21.6 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | 9.3 | 22.1 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-07 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
BKN43.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ziaire Williams | 13.6 | 23.1 | 8 |
| Nic Claxton | 9.5 | 22.4 | 8 |
| Noah Clowney | 7.8 | 18.5 | 5 |
| Danny Wolf | 7.7 | 19.8 | 3 |
| Terance Mann | 5.0 | 22.0 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-07 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
RestMIL2 daysBKN2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIL2days
Last played Apr 5 against MEM.
BKN2days
Last played Apr 5 against WAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | MEM | 131–115 | 50-83 | 16-32 | 15-24 | 20 | 10 | 129.7 | 112.7 | 101.5 |
| Apr 3 | BOS | 101–133 | 35-83 | 21-47 | 10-13 | 13 | 8 | 109.8 | 141.5 | 93.0 |
| Apr 1 | @HOU | 113–119 | 42-89 | 17-40 | 12-16 | 15 | 13 | 121.5 | 125.3 | 94.0 |
| Mar 31 | DAL | 123–99 | 41-92 | 20-54 | 21-26 | 16 | 12 | 111.8 | 90.8 | 109.5 |
| Mar 29 | LAC | 113–127 | 40-77 | 20-44 | 13-15 | 22 | 4 | 111.9 | 125.7 | 101.0 |
| Mar 28 | SAS | 95–127 | 38-87 | 14-46 | 5-6 | 18 | 8 | 97.9 | 129.6 | 97.5 |
| Mar 25 | @POR | 99–130 | 36-89 | 14-45 | 13-20 | 16 | 13 | 98.0 | 131.3 | 100.0 |
| Mar 23 | @LAC | 96–129 | 37-84 | 16-41 | 6-9 | 22 | 11 | 99.0 | 133.0 | 97.0 |
| Mar 21 | @PHX | 108–105 | 39-78 | 16-39 | 14-21 | 15 | 8 | 117.4 | 114.1 | 92.0 |
| Mar 19 | @UTA | 96–128 | 32-78 | 15-44 | 17-23 | 20 | 8 | 96.0 | 128.0 | 100.0 |
BKN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | WAS | 121–115 | 43-88 | 15-40 | 20-23 | 11 | 5 | 122.2 | 116.2 | 99.0 |
| Apr 3 | ATL | 107–141 | 39-79 | 12-28 | 17-20 | 18 | 1 | 101.9 | 135.6 | 104.5 |
| Mar 31 | CHA | 86–117 | 28-73 | 7-35 | 23-27 | 14 | 4 | 90.5 | 123.2 | 95.0 |
| Mar 29 | SAC | 116–99 | 42-85 | 17-41 | 15-20 | 15 | 8 | 122.1 | 103.1 | 95.5 |
| Mar 27 | @LAL | 99–116 | 40-96 | 10-39 | 9-15 | 14 | 11 | 100.0 | 118.4 | 98.5 |
| Mar 25 | @GSW | 106–109 | 39-81 | 12-33 | 16-21 | 17 | 4 | 103.9 | 105.8 | 102.5 |
| Mar 23 | @POR | 99–134 | 33-80 | 8-29 | 25-29 | 22 | 5 | 91.7 | 125.2 | 107.5 |
| Mar 22 | @SAC | 122–126 | 46-88 | 14-33 | 16-20 | 7 | 5 | 127.1 | 134.0 | 95.0 |
| Mar 20 | NYK | 92–93 | 34-86 | 14-38 | 10-10 | 15 | 6 | 94.8 | 95.9 | 97.0 |
| Mar 18 | OKC | 92–121 | 29-79 | 11-35 | 23-31 | 23 | 6 | 88.5 | 116.3 | 104.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIL | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 90 | 96 |
| Field goals | 35–81 · 43.2% | 33–75 · 44.0% |
| Three-pointers | 15–45 · 33.3% | 9–26 · 34.6% |
| Free throws | 5–8 · 62.5% | 21–23 · 91.3% |
| Rebounds | 44 | 32 |
| Assists | 25 | 18 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 10 |
| Steals | 6 | 11 |
| Blocks | 7 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Brooklyn Nets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (BKN) | −1 | +6 | +7 |
| Total points | 223 | 186 | −37 |
| MIL points | 112 | 90 | −22 |
| BKN points | 111 | 96 | −15 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 2025-26 | MIL at BKN | MIL 82 – 127 BKN |
| Nov 29 2025-26 | BKN at MIL | BKN 99 – 116 MIL |
| Jan 2 2024-25 | BKN at MIL | BKN 113 – 110 MIL |
| Dec 26 2024-25 | BKN at MIL | BKN 111 – 105 MIL |
| Dec 8 2024-25 | MIL at BKN | MIL 118 – 113 BKN |