2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, December 14, 2025 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

MIL 1–2@BKN 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks	112	82	−30
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	110	127	+17

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIL	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1456	1324
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−62
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.2	−7.8
Games played this season	26	24
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.3	112.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.0	114.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	34.0	8.4
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1456BKN1324

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1456

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 16 games: −53.8
Last 10 games: −32.0

LDET116–129−10.9
LPOR103–115−14.0
L@MIA103–106−2.6
L@NYK109–118−4.1
WBKN116–99+5.5
L@WAS126–129−8.8
WDET113–109+8.2
LPHI101–116−20.4
L@DET112–124−4.2
WBOS116–101+19.3

BKN1324

Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
First 14 games: −36.3
Last 10 games: +20.1

W@BOS113–105+22.5
L@TOR109–119−2.8
LNYK100–113−5.6
LPHI103–115−11.8
L@MIL99–116−5.5
WCHA116–103+10.5
W@CHI113–103+19.7
LUTA110–123−13.5
WNOP119–101+10.7
L@DAL111–119−4.1

Season scoring marginMIL−2.2BKN−7.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−2.2

Scores 115.1, allows 117.3 over 26 games: −2.2 a game.

BKN−7.8

Scores 109.5, allows 117.3 over 24 games: −7.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL114.3BKN112.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MIL114.3scored, −0.7 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.8%	54.6%	+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.4%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.182	0.222	−1.1
Everything else			−4.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

BKN112.2scored, −2.8 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.6%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.4%	−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.222	−0.1
Everything else			+0.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MIL117.0BKN114.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MIL117.0allowed, +2.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.4%	−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.222	−0.0
Everything else			−0.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

BKN114.0allowed, −1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.6%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.4%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.222	+0.7
Everything else			+1.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 97.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 97.8 and BKN 97.8 → average 97.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.9)

Rotation points missingMIL34.0BKN8.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL34.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Giannis Antetokounmpo	21.8	20.4	4
AJ Green	12.2	29.7	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BKN8.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ben Saraf	8.4	21.3	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestMIL3 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL3days

Last played Dec 11 against BOS.

BKN2days

Last played Dec 12 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 11	BOS	116–101	46-79	13-29	11-14	15	–	120.8	105.2	96.0
Dec 6	@DET	112–124	37-84	16-38	22-32	12	–	116.7	127.8	96.5
Dec 5	PHI	101–116	35-76	11-32	20-27	16	–	102.0	116.0	99.5
Dec 3	DET	113–109	40-82	13-44	20-21	15	–	115.3	112.4	97.5
Dec 1	@WAS	126–129	46-84	21-38	13-21	16	–	124.8	126.5	101.5
Nov 29	BKN	116–99	44-84	16-39	12-17	12	–	123.4	106.5	93.5
Nov 28	@NYK	109–118	37-71	18-41	17-25	15	–	117.2	125.5	93.5
Nov 26	@MIA	103–106	40-95	14-42	9-14	13	11	103.0	103.9	101.0
Nov 24	POR	103–115	38-86	13-37	14-18	13	8	104.0	116.2	99.0
Nov 22	DET	116–129	43-84	20-43	10-12	15	6	116.0	130.3	99.5

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 12	@DAL	111–119	39-86	17-39	16-19	17	–	108.8	114.4	103.0
Dec 6	NOP	119–101	47-89	14-35	11-14	16	–	122.7	103.1	97.5
Dec 4	UTA	110–123	35-82	11-42	29-38	17	–	110.0	124.2	99.5
Dec 3	@CHI	113–103	38-78	19-46	18-22	20	–	111.9	102.0	101.0
Dec 1	CHA	116–103	43-96	17-43	13-17	11	–	117.2	103.0	99.5
Nov 29	@MIL	99–116	36-77	16-42	11-17	18	–	106.5	123.4	93.5
Nov 28	PHI	103–115	34-85	13-43	22-26	18	14	105.1	116.2	98.5
Nov 24	NYK	100–113	33-87	14-48	20-28	10	13	107.5	120.2	93.5
Nov 23	@TOR	109–119	35-75	12-34	27-31	19	10	116.0	125.3	94.5
Nov 21	@BOS	113–105	43-82	13-33	14-21	13	7	116.5	108.2	97.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored MIL

47 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +45 for BKN

292nd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

9th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.81 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIL	BKN
Final score	82	127
Field goals	31–79 · 39.2%	45–85 · 52.9%
Three-pointers	8–35 · 22.9%	19–43 · 44.2%
Free throws	12–16 · 75.0%	18–19 · 94.7%
Rebounds	37	43
Assists	20	33
Turnovers	20	13
Steals	8	14
Blocks	1	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	−2	+45	+47
Total points	222	209	−13
MIL points	112	82	−30
BKN points	110	127	+17

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 11	vs BOS	W 116–101
Dec 6	at DET	L 112–124
Dec 5	vs PHI	L 101–116
Dec 3	vs DET	W 113–109
Dec 1	at WAS	L 126–129

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 12	at DAL	L 111–119
Dec 6	vs NOP	W 119–101
Dec 4	vs UTA	L 110–123
Dec 3	at CHI	W 113–103
Dec 1	vs CHA	W 116–103

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Nov 29 2025-26	BKN at MIL	BKN 99 – 116 MIL
Jan 2 2024-25	BKN at MIL	BKN 113 – 110 MIL
Dec 26 2024-25	BKN at MIL	BKN 111 – 105 MIL
Dec 8 2024-25	MIL at BKN	MIL 118 – 113 BKN
Oct 27 2024-25	MIL at BKN	MIL 102 – 115 BKN