2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors

Wednesday, January 15, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 1–3@TOR 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
BOS Boston Celtics	118	97	−21
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	103	110	+7

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	BOS	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1668	1323
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−275
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+9.3	−7.8
Games played this season	39	40
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	120.6	108.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.3	123.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	21.2
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1668TOR1323

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1668

Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
First 29 games: +8.0
Last 10 games: −21.9

LPHI114–118−14.5
WIND142–105+9.3
LIND114–123−19.4
WTOR125–71+4.5
W@MIN118–115+5.1
W@HOU109–86+17.9
L@OKC92–105−7.5
W@DEN118–106+10.7
LSAC97–114−28.6
WNOP120–119+0.6

TOR1323

Ended last season at 1301 → started this one at 1350
First 30 games: +0.3
Last 10 games: −27.8

L@MEM126–155−5.4
LATL107–136−15.0
L@BOS71–125−4.5
WBKN130–113+14.7
LORL97–106−5.9
LMIL104–128−12.8
L@NYK98–112−2.3
L@CLE126–132−0.8
L@DET114–123−3.8
WGSW104–101+8.0

Season scoring marginBOS+9.3TOR−7.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+9.3

Scores 118.0, allows 108.7 over 39 games: +9.3 a game.

TOR−7.8

Scores 111.0, allows 118.8 over 40 games: −7.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS120.6TOR108.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

BOS120.6scored, +7.9 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.1%	54.2%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.4%	+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.6%	24.7%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.193	−0.8
Everything else			+1.2

TOR108.3scored, −4.4 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.2%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.4%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	24.7%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.142	0.193	−1.4
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10BOS111.3TOR123.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

BOS111.3allowed, −1.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.2%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.4%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	24.7%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.193	+0.5
Everything else			−0.7

TOR123.4allowed, +10.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.0%	54.2%	−8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.4%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	24.7%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.193	+0.2
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 97.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 95.5 and TOR 99.5 → average 97.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0TOR21.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

TOR21.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Immanuel Quickley	16.7	31.5	6
Ja'Kobe Walter	4.5	15.9	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-15 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestBOS3 daysTOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS3days

Last played Jan 12 against NOP.

TOR2days

Last played Jan 13 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 12	NOP	120–119	44-101	13-44	19-23	11	18	118.8	117.8	101.0
Jan 10	SAC	97–114	34-84	11-41	18-22	15	8	98.0	114.0	99.5
Jan 7	@DEN	118–106	44-88	12-35	18-20	11	11	124.2	112.8	94.5
Jan 5	@OKC	92–105	31-85	9-46	21-24	16	12	94.8	107.1	97.5
Jan 3	@HOU	109–86	39-77	19-39	12-18	14	12	123.9	98.9	87.5
Jan 2	@MIN	118–115	46-92	22-57	4-6	3	10	137.2	133.7	86.0
Dec 31	TOR	125–71	47-87	22-43	9-15	13	11	130.2	73.2	96.5
Dec 29	IND	114–123	43-93	16-54	12-19	8	8	116.3	124.2	98.5
Dec 27	IND	142–105	47-92	23-56	25-29	10	18	144.9	108.2	97.5
Dec 25	PHI	114–118	43-95	20-49	8-13	13	13	117.5	122.9	96.5

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 13	GSW	104–101	41-86	12-29	10-15	14	14	110.6	107.4	94.0
Jan 11	@DET	114–123	40-92	16-38	18-27	12	15	114.0	123.0	100.0
Jan 9	@CLE	126–132	53-89	14-31	6-13	12	9	129.9	136.1	97.0
Jan 8	@NYK	98–112	38-77	10-26	12-15	16	8	103.2	117.9	95.0
Jan 6	MIL	104–128	41-91	9-35	13-21	15	10	101.0	124.3	103.0
Jan 3	ORL	97–106	38-80	10-29	11-13	11	7	109.0	117.8	89.5
Jan 1	BKN	130–113	52-88	16-32	10-13	10	8	132.7	116.5	97.5
Dec 31	@BOS	71–125	27-86	10-40	7-11	21	14	73.2	130.2	96.5
Dec 29	ATL	107–136	38-85	7-24	24-27	31	15	98.2	123.6	109.5
Dec 26	@MEM	126–155	49-108	14-43	14-18	15	11	111.5	137.2	113.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

18%

pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner

the forecast favored BOS

28 pts

margin miss

forecast −15, actual +13 for TOR

7th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

67th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.71 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	BOS	TOR
Final score	97	110
Field goals	36–91 · 39.6%	45–89 · 50.6%
Three-pointers	16–46 · 34.8%	11–34 · 32.4%
Free throws	9–18 · 50.0%	9–15 · 60.0%
Rebounds	45	56
Assists	24	35
Turnovers	9	10
Steals	6	4
Blocks	8	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	−15	+13	+28
Total points	221	207	−14
BOS points	118	97	−21
TOR points	103	110	+7

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
BOS	29	24	29	15	–	97
TOR	25	30	33	22	–	110

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 12	vs NOP	W 120–119
Jan 10	vs SAC	L 97–114
Jan 7	at DEN	W 118–106
Jan 5	at OKC	L 92–105
Jan 3	at HOU	W 109–86

Toronto Raptors

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 13	vs GSW	W 104–101
Jan 11	at DET	L 114–123
Jan 9	at CLE	L 126–132
Jan 8	at NYK	L 98–112
Jan 6	vs MIL	L 104–128

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Dec 31 2024-25	TOR at BOS	TOR 71 – 125 BOS
Nov 16 2024-25	TOR at BOS	TOR 123 – 126 BOS
Jan 15 2023-24	BOS at TOR	BOS 105 – 96 TOR
Dec 29 2023-24	TOR at BOS	TOR 118 – 120 BOS
Nov 17 2023-24	BOS at TOR	BOS 108 – 105 TOR