2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks

Friday, April 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 5–0@DAL 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DET Detroit Pistons	104	107	+3
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	118	89	−29

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DET	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1261	1658
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+467
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.2	+3.1
Games played this season	80	80
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	102.8	118.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.8	104.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	40.5	33.5
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1261DAL1658

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1261

Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
First 70 games: −35.7
Last 10 games: −31.0

LNOP101–114−3.6
L@NYK99–124−3.5
L@MIN91–106−1.4
W@WAS96–87+12.6
LMEM108–110−5.7
L@ATL113–121−2.5
L@MEM90–108−8.8
L@BKN103–113−3.8
L@PHI102–120−3.7
LCHI105–127−10.6

DAL1658

Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
First 70 games: +117.4
Last 10 games: +87.4

W@UTA115–105+6.9
W@SAC132–96+30.5
W@SAC107–103+6.2
W@HOU125–107+15.4
L@GSW100–104−5.7
WATL109–95+5.4
WGSW108–106+3.4
WHOU147–136+4.4
W@CHA130–104+5.7
W@MIA111–92+15.2

Season scoring marginDET−9.2DAL+3.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−9.2

Scores 110.1, allows 119.3 over 80 games: −9.2 a game.

DAL+3.1

Scores 118.6, allows 115.5 over 80 games: +3.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET102.8DAL118.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

DET102.8scored, −11.8 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.7%	54.8%	−7.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.6%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	15.5%	24.1%	−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.195	+0.4
Everything else			+0.9

DAL118.2scored, +3.6 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.8%	+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	11.6%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	24.1%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.195	−0.6
Everything else			−0.7

Defensive rating, last 10DET115.8DAL104.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

DET115.8allowed, +1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.8%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	11.6%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.2%	24.1%	−4.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.177	0.195	+0.5
Everything else			+3.1

DAL104.6allowed, −10.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.8%	+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.6%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.8%	24.1%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.195	+0.9
Everything else			+0.0

Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 97.9 and DAL 99.0 → average 98.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingDET40.5DAL33.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET40.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Cade Cunningham	33.7	33.2	3
Tosan Evbuomwan	6.9	28.2	7

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-12 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

DAL33.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kyrie Irving	27.5	37.8	10
Dereck Lively II	6.0	19.4	4

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDET1 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 11 against CHI.

DAL2days

Last played Apr 10 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 11	CHI	105–127	38-77	14-35	15-23	20	7	107.1	130.9	97.5
Apr 9	@PHI	102–120	34-84	14-30	20-24	16	9	101.0	120.0	100.5
Apr 6	@BKN	103–113	42-92	17-39	2-4	7	5	108.4	117.7	95.5
Apr 5	@MEM	90–108	32-79	8-30	18-24	17	5	92.8	110.2	97.5
Apr 3	@ATL	113–121	43-94	10-30	17-21	10	6	109.7	116.3	103.5
Apr 1	MEM	108–110	40-79	11-28	17-22	14	5	113.7	118.3	94.0
Mar 29	@WAS	96–87	37-89	6-24	16-20	13	8	95.0	86.1	101.0
Mar 27	@MIN	91–106	31-81	9-32	20-25	12	4	98.9	116.5	91.5
Mar 25	@NYK	99–124	34-88	10-34	21-22	12	5	98.0	124.0	100.5
Mar 24	NOP	101–114	32-79	11-41	26-32	16	5	103.1	117.5	97.5

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 10	@MIA	111–92	43-87	15-44	10-13	7	8	122.0	101.1	91.0
Apr 9	@CHA	130–104	50-93	17-50	13-20	14	16	130.0	103.0	100.5
Apr 7	HOU	147–136	46-85	15-39	40-45	17	6	131.3	120.4	101.9
Apr 5	GSW	108–106	40-84	12-34	16-21	17	8	105.9	102.9	102.5
Apr 4	ATL	109–95	38-94	18-49	15-17	14	11	104.8	91.3	104.0
Apr 2	@GSW	100–104	39-89	15-40	7-11	15	8	99.0	103.0	101.0
Mar 31	@HOU	125–107	48-93	24-47	5-9	13	10	127.6	110.3	97.5
Mar 29	@SAC	107–103	35-74	15-35	22-33	10	6	113.8	109.6	94.0
Mar 26	@SAC	132–96	51-92	22-39	8-13	9	5	129.4	95.0	101.5
Mar 25	@UTA	115–105	44-92	12-42	15-18	6	10	118.6	109.4	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

32 pts

margin miss

forecast +14, actual −18 for DAL

8th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

43rd

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.57 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DET	DAL
Final score	107	89
Field goals	46–95 · 48.4%	36–83 · 43.4%
Three-pointers	8–31 · 25.8%	8–29 · 27.6%
Free throws	7–9 · 77.8%	9–12 · 75.0%
Rebounds	40	49
Assists	23	20
Turnovers	6	20
Steals	11	5
Blocks	7	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+14	−18	−32
Total points	222	196	−26
DET points	104	107	+3
DAL points	118	89	−29

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DET	27	26	27	27	–	107
DAL	21	25	22	21	–	89

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Date	Opponent	Result
Apr 11	vs CHI	L 105–127
Apr 9	at PHI	L 102–120
Apr 6	at BKN	L 103–113
Apr 5	at MEM	L 90–108
Apr 3	at ATL	L 113–121

Dallas Mavericks

Date	Opponent	Result
Apr 10	at MIA	W 111–92
Apr 9	at CHA	W 130–104
Apr 7	vs HOU	W 147–136
Apr 5	vs GSW	W 108–106
Apr 4	vs ATL	W 109–95

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 9 2023-24	DAL at DET	DAL 142 – 124 DET
Jan 30 2022-23	DET at DAL	DET 105 – 111 DAL
Dec 1 2022-23	DAL at DET	DAL 125 – 131 DET
Apr 6 2021-22	DAL at DET	DAL 131 – 113 DET
Feb 8 2021-22	DET at DAL	DET 86 – 116 DAL