The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 6

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 0–0@DAL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 27 percent, DAL 73 percent. UTA Jazz 27% proj. 111 · final 97 DAL Mavericks · home 73% proj. 121 · final 147
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 111 97 −14
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 121 147 +26

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputUTADAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13971472
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +145
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.4+0.2
Games played this season 2019
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.2113.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.2118.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 50.46.6
Rest days 44
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1397DAL1472

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1397

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
  2. First 10 games: −19.4
  3. Last 10 games: −18.7
  • WPOR115–99+8.6
  • LPHX128–131−5.1
  • LPHX137–140−4.9
  • L@LAL99–131−10.4
  • L@POR105–121−14.6
  • WNOP105–100+9.2
  • WNOP114–112+6.0
  • L@MEM91–105−9.0
  • L@MIN90–101−3.3
  • WPOR118–113+4.8

DAL1472

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 9 games: +57.2
  3. Last 10 games: −38.0
  • W@NOP136–124+13.9
  • L@NOP110–131−15.5
  • W@WAS130–117+11.3
  • L@MIL125–132−5.4
  • LSAC113–129−17.0
  • W@LAL104–101+8.0
  • L@LAC88–107−12.3
  • WHOU121–115+5.4
  • LMEM94–108−19.8
  • LOKC120–126−6.6
Season scoring marginUTA−6.4DAL+0.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−6.4

Scores 112.0, allows 118.5 over 20 games: −6.4 a game.

DAL+0.2

Scores 118.2, allows 118.0 over 19 games: +0.2 a game.

95% this season (+0.2) + 5% last season (+0.1) = +0.2

Offensive rating, last 10UTA109.2DAL113.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.9).

UTA109.2scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.2%−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.0%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.5%24.8%+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.204−0.4
Everything else+0.6

DAL113.6scored, −0.3 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.2%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)9.1%12.0%+4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%24.8%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.204−0.7
Everything else−0.7
Defensive rating, last 10UTA114.2DAL118.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.9).

UTA114.2allowed, +0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.2%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.0%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%24.8%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.204+0.8
Everything else+1.3

DAL118.7allowed, +4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.2%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.0%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%24.8%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.204+0.5
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 97.9 and DAL 100.2 → average 99.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingUTA50.4DAL6.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA50.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lauri Markkanen22.835.45
Jordan Clarkson19.631.87
Kelly Olynyk8.021.79

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-06 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

DAL6.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Josh Green6.625.69

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-06 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestUTA4 daysDAL4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA4days

Last played Dec 2 against POR.

DAL4days

Last played Dec 2 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 2POR118–11346-947-3419-241716112.4107.695.1
Nov 30@MIN90–10133-8711-3413-14191392.8104.197.0
Nov 29@MEM91–10534-9016-397-12171296.8110.594.5
Nov 27NOP114–11237-8817-4823-28109118.8119.195.0
Nov 25NOP105–10038-8715-4314-172314105.0100.0100.0
Nov 22@POR105–12137-7910-3121-262114107.1122.298.5
Nov 21@LAL99–13138-9811-4412-16141395.2126.0104.0
Nov 19PHX137–14048-11515-4626-321827118.1120.796.0
Nov 17PHX128–13143-8516-3626-31810132.0133.797.5
Nov 14POR115–9944-9513-4314-151216113.998.0101.0

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 2OKC120–12639-8719-5223-351515115.4122.3103.5
Dec 1MEM94–10834-9212-3914-211113100.0112.595.0
Nov 28HOU121–11542-8912-3425-2979126.0118.696.5
Nov 25@LAC88–10734-919-3811-1491095.7115.192.5
Nov 22@LAL104–10138-9616-5012-16411109.5104.196.0
Nov 19SAC113–12941-8812-3419-261011114.1134.497.5
Nov 18@MIL125–13251-10316-477-101211120.2126.9104.0
Nov 15@WAS130–11748-9217-4217-29109126.2112.5103.5
Nov 14@NOP110–13138-9014-4220-262016102.8126.0105.5
Nov 12@NOP136–12450-10220-5316-2168125.9114.8108.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
73%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
DAL was the forecast favorite
40 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual +50 for DAL
1177th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.31 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTADAL
Final score97147
Field goals35–87 · 40.2%56–101 · 55.4%
Three-pointers12–33 · 36.4%22–49 · 44.9%
Free throws15–18 · 83.3%13–19 · 68.4%
Rebounds4347
Assists2237
Turnovers197
Steals611
Blocks35

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)+10+50+40
Total points232244+12
UTA points11197−14
DAL points121147+26

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
UTA29222323–97
DAL40343538–147

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Dec 2 vs POR W 118–113
Nov 30 at MIN L 90–101
Nov 29 at MEM L 91–105
Nov 27 vs NOP W 114–112
Nov 25 vs NOP W 105–100

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 2 vs OKC L 120–126
Dec 1 vs MEM L 94–108
Nov 28 vs HOU W 121–115
Nov 25 at LAC L 88–107
Nov 22 at LAL W 104–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 7 2022-23 UTA at DAL UTA 116 – 120 DAL
Feb 6 2022-23 DAL at UTA DAL 124 – 111 UTA
Jan 28 2022-23 DAL at UTA DAL 100 – 108 UTA
Nov 2 2022-23 UTA at DAL UTA 100 – 103 DAL
Apr 28 2021-22 DAL at UTA DAL 98 – 96 UTA