2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, December 11, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
BOS 1–3@MIL 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS Boston Celtics | 116 | 101 | −15 |
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) | 109 | 116 | +7 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | BOS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1616 | 1437 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −110 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +6.7 | −2.9 |
| Games played this season | 24 | 25 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 127.9 | 112.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 117.2 | 117.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 96.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 21.8 |
| Rest days | 4 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBOS1616MIL1437
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BOS1616
- Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
- First 14 games: −37.4
- Last 10 games: +31.0
- W@BKN113–99+5.2
- LBKN105–113−22.5
- WORL138–129+6.8
- WDET117–114+4.8
- L@MIN115–119−4.3
- W@CLE117–115+6.6
- WNYK123–117+6.4
- W@WAS146–101+8.5
- WLAL126–105+12.2
- W@TOR121–113+7.3
MIL1437
- Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
- First 15 games: −37.1
- Last 10 games: −68.0
- LPHI114–123−16.7
- LDET116–129−10.9
- LPOR103–115−14.0
- L@MIA103–106−2.6
- L@NYK109–118−4.1
- WBKN116–99+5.5
- L@WAS126–129−8.8
- WDET113–109+8.2
- LPHI101–116−20.4
- L@DET112–124−4.2
Season scoring marginBOS+6.7MIL−2.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BOS+6.7
Scores 117.2, allows 110.6 over 24 games: +6.7 a game.
MIL−2.9
Scores 115.1, allows 118.0 over 25 games: −2.9 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10BOS127.9MIL112.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).
BOS127.9scored, +13.0 vs league
| Factor | BOS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 60.8% | 54.6% | +9.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.0% | 12.4% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.177 | 0.222 | −1.3 | |
| Everything else | +2.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIL112.7scored, −2.2 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.8% | 54.6% | +4.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.4% | −1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.179 | 0.222 | −1.2 | |
| Everything else | −4.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10BOS117.2MIL117.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).
BOS117.2allowed, +2.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.6% | +0.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.4% | −1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.211 | 0.222 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.8 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIL117.9allowed, +3.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.5% | 54.6% | −2.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.4% | −0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.222 | 0.222 | −0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 96.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BOS 95.8 and MIL 98.0 → average 96.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)
Rotation points missingBOS0.0MIL21.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BOS0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
MIL21.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 21.8 | 20.4 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestBOS4 daysMIL5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BOS4days
Last played Dec 7 against TOR.
MIL5days
Last played Dec 6 against DET.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BOS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7 | @TOR | 121–113 | 44-92 | 20-47 | 13-14 | 11 | – | 126.0 | 117.7 | 96.0 |
| Dec 5 | LAL | 126–105 | 46-84 | 24-45 | 10-12 | 14 | – | 132.6 | 108.2 | 96.0 |
| Dec 4 | @WAS | 146–101 | 54-99 | 20-47 | 18-21 | 9 | – | 150.5 | 102.0 | 98.0 |
| Dec 2 | NYK | 123–117 | 49-87 | 13-40 | 12-14 | 10 | – | 138.2 | 130.0 | 89.5 |
| Nov 30 | @CLE | 117–115 | 40-81 | 14-40 | 23-29 | 16 | – | 121.9 | 118.6 | 96.5 |
| Nov 29 | @MIN | 115–119 | 45-96 | 16-46 | 9-15 | 10 | – | 119.8 | 124.0 | 96.0 |
| Nov 26 | DET | 117–114 | 38-87 | 20-43 | 21-24 | 12 | 12 | 120.6 | 117.5 | 97.0 |
| Nov 23 | ORL | 138–129 | 53-88 | 15-33 | 17-22 | 5 | 7 | 142.3 | 133.0 | 97.0 |
| Nov 21 | BKN | 105–113 | 42-90 | 11-34 | 10-14 | 13 | 14 | 108.2 | 116.5 | 97.0 |
| Nov 18 | @BKN | 113–99 | 37-75 | 19-42 | 20-26 | 19 | 10 | 118.9 | 104.2 | 95.0 |
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6 | @DET | 112–124 | 37-84 | 16-38 | 22-32 | 12 | – | 116.7 | 127.8 | 96.5 |
| Dec 5 | PHI | 101–116 | 35-76 | 11-32 | 20-27 | 16 | – | 102.0 | 116.0 | 99.5 |
| Dec 3 | DET | 113–109 | 40-82 | 13-44 | 20-21 | 15 | – | 115.3 | 112.4 | 97.5 |
| Dec 1 | @WAS | 126–129 | 46-84 | 21-38 | 13-21 | 16 | – | 124.8 | 126.5 | 101.5 |
| Nov 29 | BKN | 116–99 | 44-84 | 16-39 | 12-17 | 12 | – | 123.4 | 106.5 | 93.5 |
| Nov 28 | @NYK | 109–118 | 37-71 | 18-41 | 17-25 | 15 | – | 117.2 | 125.5 | 93.5 |
| Nov 26 | @MIA | 103–106 | 40-95 | 14-42 | 9-14 | 13 | 11 | 103.0 | 103.9 | 101.0 |
| Nov 24 | POR | 103–115 | 38-86 | 13-37 | 14-18 | 13 | 8 | 104.0 | 116.2 | 99.0 |
| Nov 22 | DET | 116–129 | 43-84 | 20-43 | 10-12 | 15 | 6 | 116.0 | 130.3 | 99.5 |
| Nov 20 | PHI | 114–123 | 45-92 | 14-36 | 10-13 | 14 | 3 | 104.6 | 113.9 | 98.3 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BOS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 101 | 116 |
| Field goals | 34–88 · 38.6% | 46–79 · 58.2% |
| Three-pointers | 14–49 · 28.6% | 13–29 · 44.8% |
| Free throws | 19–25 · 76.0% | 11–14 · 78.6% |
| Rebounds | 39 | 40 |
| Assists | 18 | 28 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 15 |
| Steals | 7 | 5 |
| Blocks | 1 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Milwaukee Bucks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIL) | −7 | +15 | +22 |
| Total points | 225 | 217 | −8 |
| BOS points | 116 | 101 | −15 |
| MIL points | 109 | 116 | +7 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 6 2024-25 | MIL at BOS | MIL 105 – 111 BOS |
| Nov 10 2024-25 | BOS at MIL | BOS 113 – 107 MIL |
| Oct 28 2024-25 | MIL at BOS | MIL 108 – 119 BOS |
| Apr 9 2023-24 | BOS at MIL | BOS 91 – 104 MIL |
| Mar 20 2023-24 | MIL at BOS | MIL 119 – 122 BOS |