The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 21

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Friday, November 21, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 0–0@BOS 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 20 percent, BOS 80 percent. BKN Nets 20% proj. 105 · final 113 BOS Celtics · home 80% proj. 117 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 105 113 +8
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 117 105 −12

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBKNBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13041591
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +357
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.3+6.1
Games played this season 1415
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.9117.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.7113.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.30.0
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1304BOS1591

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1304

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
  2. First 4 games: −25.9
  3. Last 10 games: −10.5
  • LATL112–117−5.2
  • LPHI105–129−19.0
  • LMIN109–125−4.4
  • W@IND112–103+23.5
  • LDET107–125−7.3
  • L@NYK98–134−4.2
  • LTOR109–119−6.7
  • L@ORL98–105−2.1
  • W@WAS129–106+20.1
  • LBOS99–113−5.2

BOS1591

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
  2. First 5 games: −1.0
  3. Last 10 games: −31.1
  • W@PHI109–108+1.9
  • LHOU101–128−30.2
  • LUTA103–105−11.2
  • WWAS136–107+3.2
  • L@ORL110–123−14.0
  • W@ORL111–107+6.1
  • L@PHI100–102−6.9
  • WMEM131–95+11.7
  • WLAC121–118+3.1
  • W@BKN113–99+5.2
Season scoring marginBKN−10.3BOS+6.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−10.3

Scores 109.6, allows 121.3 over 14 games: −11.6 a game.

70% this season (−11.6) + 30% last season (−7.1) = −10.3

BOS+6.1

Scores 113.7, allows 108.5 over 15 games: +5.2 a game.

75% this season (+5.2) + 25% last season (+8.7) = +6.1

Offensive rating, last 10BKN110.9BOS117.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

BKN110.9scored, −3.7 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.4%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.7%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.3%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2640.227+1.1
Everything else+1.7

BOS117.9scored, +3.3 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.4%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.6%12.7%+4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.7%26.3%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1490.227−2.3
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10BKN120.7BOS113.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

BKN120.7allowed, +6.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.4%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.7%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.3%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.227+0.4
Everything else−0.4

BOS113.3allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.4%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.7%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%26.3%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2750.227−1.4
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 96.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 97.3 and BOS 96.3 → average 96.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)

Rotation points missingBKN18.3BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN18.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Cam Thomas18.227.54

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN3 daysBOS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN3days

Last played Nov 18 against BOS.

BOS3days

Last played Nov 18 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18BOS99–11333-8214-3819-271312104.2118.995.0
Nov 16@WAS129–10642-7917-4128-35147130.3108.298.5
Nov 14@ORL98–10538-8910-3912-1657106.5114.192.0
Nov 11TOR109–11932-8114-4131-32127113.5122.796.5
Nov 9@NYK98–13433-8214-4518-241915102.1141.195.5
Nov 7DET107–12534-8017-4622-26198108.1125.099.5
Nov 5@IND112–10336-8614-4026-351210112.0102.0100.5
Nov 3MIN109–12536-8912-4025-381218113.5127.697.0
Nov 2PHI105–12939-917-3920-261813102.9126.5102.0
Oct 29ATL112–11740-8811-3721-271615115.5120.697.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18@BKN113–9937-7519-4220-261910118.9104.295.0
Nov 16LAC121–11846-10316-3913-17620128.7125.594.0
Nov 12MEM131–9550-9921-5110-121018136.599.096.0
Nov 11@PHI100–10236-9213-3815-191013106.4108.594.0
Nov 9@ORL111–10740-8513-3318-251413115.6112.695.5
Nov 7@ORL110–12343-9513-3711-161412111.1124.299.0
Nov 5WAS136–10752-9516-4116-21512138.8107.099.0
Nov 3UTA103–10537-8911-5118-221010107.3108.296.5
Nov 1HOU101–12840-10314-447-71014103.1132.097.5
Oct 31@PHI109–10844-10114-457-12916112.4111.397.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
20%
pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual −8 for BOS
22nd
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
206th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.60 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNBOS
Final score113105
Field goals43–82 · 52.4%42–90 · 46.7%
Three-pointers13–33 · 39.4%11–34 · 32.4%
Free throws14–21 · 66.7%10–14 · 71.4%
Rebounds4144
Assists3124
Turnovers1313
Steals57
Blocks61

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+12−8−20
Total points222218−4
BKN points105113+8
BOS points117105−12

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 vs BOS L 99–113
Nov 16 at WAS W 129–106
Nov 14 at ORL L 98–105
Nov 11 vs TOR L 109–119
Nov 9 at NYK L 98–134

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 at BKN W 113–99
Nov 16 vs LAC W 121–118
Nov 12 vs MEM W 131–95
Nov 11 at PHI L 100–102
Nov 9 at ORL W 111–107

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 18 2025-26 BOS at BKN BOS 113 – 99 BKN
Mar 18 2024-25 BKN at BOS BKN 96 – 104 BOS
Mar 15 2024-25 BOS at BKN BOS 115 – 113 BKN
Nov 13 2024-25 BOS at BKN BOS 139 – 114 BKN
Nov 8 2024-25 BKN at BOS BKN 104 – 108 BOS