2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics

Monday, November 3, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

UTA 1–1@BOS 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
UTA Utah Jazz	108	105	−3
BOS Boston Celtics (home)	119	103	−16

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	UTA	BOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1343	1594
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+321
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.7	+6.1
Games played this season	6	7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.6	115.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.0	116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	14.4	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1343BOS1594

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1343

Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
This season's 6 games: +4.7

WLAC129–108+30.2
L@SAC104–105−1.7
WPHX138–134+6.3
LPOR134–136−3.4
L@PHX96–118−10.3
L@CHA103–126−16.4

BOS1594

Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
This season's 7 games: −29.3

LPHI116–117−9.9
L@NYK95–105−8.7
L@DET113–119−7.7
W@NOP122–90+10.3
WCLE125–105+15.0
W@PHI109–108+1.9
LHOU101–128−30.2

Season scoring marginUTA−7.7BOS+6.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−7.7

Scores 117.3, allows 121.2 over 6 games: −3.8 a game.

30% this season (−3.8) + 70% last season (−9.3) = −7.7

BOS+6.1

Scores 111.6, allows 110.3 over 7 games: +1.3 a game.

35% this season (+1.3) + 65% last season (+8.7) = +6.1

Offensive rating, last 10UTA113.6BOS115.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

UTA113.6scored, −0.1 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	54.3%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.0%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.7%	25.3%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.245	0.194	+1.5
Everything else			+0.5

BOS115.3scored, +1.6 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.3%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	12.0%	+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	25.3%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.194	−1.1
Everything else			+1.2

Defensive rating, last 10UTA121.0BOS116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

UTA121.0allowed, +7.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.3%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	25.3%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.194	+0.5
Everything else			−1.1

BOS116.5allowed, +2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.3%	+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.4%	25.3%	−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.267	0.194	−2.1
Everything else			−2.5

Pace, last 10average 98.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 102.2 and BOS 95.7 → average 98.9 (league 2024-25: 99.4)

Rotation points missingUTA14.4BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA14.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Walker Kessler	14.4	30.8	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-03 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestUTA1 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 2 against CHA.

BOS2days

Last played Nov 1 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 2	@CHA	103–126	36-88	7-32	24-29	10	10	102.0	124.8	101.0
Oct 31	@PHX	96–118	30-80	12-37	24-32	21	12	95.0	115.7	101.5
Oct 29	POR	134–136	41-84	11-35	41-49	21	16	120.7	123.6	110.5
Oct 27	PHX	138–134	44-108	16-49	34-36	18	28	121.1	117.5	103.2
Oct 24	@SAC	104–105	38-86	13-41	15-17	19	11	105.1	108.2	98.0
Oct 22	LAC	129–108	48-87	17-44	16-20	12	13	135.8	113.7	95.0
Apr 13	@MIN	105–116	40-89	16-42	9-11	13	7	107.1	119.6	97.5
Apr 11	OKC	111–145	39-103	17-63	16-20	16	13	102.8	135.5	107.5
Apr 9	POR	133–126	50-98	15-36	18-22	24	13	113.7	107.7	106.0
Apr 6	@ATL	134–147	45-87	20-47	24-28	10	7	132.7	144.1	101.5

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 1	HOU	101–128	40-103	14-44	7-7	10	14	103.1	132.0	97.5
Oct 31	@PHI	109–108	44-101	14-45	7-12	9	16	112.4	111.3	97.0
Oct 29	CLE	125–105	42-95	21-57	20-24	9	18	131.6	109.4	95.5
Oct 27	@NOP	122–90	46-95	18-53	12-15	11	16	128.4	95.7	94.5
Oct 26	@DET	113–119	40-94	15-45	18-24	12	12	114.1	120.2	99.0
Oct 24	@NYK	95–105	35-82	15-44	10-15	15	8	101.1	112.9	93.5
Oct 22	PHI	116–117	41-91	11-43	23-26	11	10	116.0	117.0	100.0
May 16	@NYK	81–119	31-86	12-40	7-10	15	8	86.2	125.3	94.5
May 14	NYK	127–102	44-84	22-49	17-26	8	11	139.6	112.1	91.0
May 12	@NYK	113–121	38-79	18-48	19-26	12	7	120.2	128.7	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner

the forecast favored BOS

13 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −2 for BOS

33rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

447th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	UTA	BOS
Final score	105	103
Field goals	38–84 · 45.2%	37–89 · 41.6%
Three-pointers	9–31 · 29.0%	11–51 · 21.6%
Free throws	20–25 · 80.0%	18–22 · 81.8%
Rebounds	55	36
Assists	23	21
Turnovers	18	10
Steals	4	12
Blocks	2	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)	+11	−2	−13
Total points	227	208	−19
UTA points	108	105	−3
BOS points	119	103	−16

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 2	at CHA	L 103–126
Oct 31	at PHX	L 96–118
Oct 29	vs POR	L 134–136
Oct 27	vs PHX	W 138–134
Oct 24	at SAC	L 104–105

Boston Celtics

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 1	vs HOU	L 101–128
Oct 31	at PHI	W 109–108
Oct 29	vs CLE	W 125–105
Oct 27	at NOP	W 122–90
Oct 26	at DET	L 113–119

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 21 2024-25	BOS at UTA	BOS 121 – 99 UTA
Mar 10 2024-25	UTA at BOS	UTA 108 – 114 BOS
Mar 12 2023-24	BOS at UTA	BOS 123 – 107 UTA
Jan 5 2023-24	UTA at BOS	UTA 97 – 126 BOS
Mar 31 2022-23	UTA at BOS	UTA 114 – 122 BOS