The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 22

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

PHI 0–0@BOS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 17 percent, BOS 83 percent. PHI 76ers 17% proj. 101 · final 117 BOS Celtics · home 83% proj. 115 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 101 117 +16
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 115 116 +1

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHIBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13411623
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +352
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.2+8.7
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.4114.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.4109.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 95.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1341BOS1623

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1341

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
  2. No games played yet this season.

BOS1623

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginPHI−6.2BOS+8.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−6.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−6.2) = −6.2

BOS+8.7

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+8.7) = +8.7

Offensive rating, last 10PHI107.4BOS114.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

PHI107.4scored, −6.2 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.3%−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.0%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.7%25.3%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.194−0.6
Everything else+2.5

BOS114.3scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.3%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.0%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%25.3%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.194+1.0
Everything else+0.7
Defensive rating, last 10PHI118.4BOS109.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

PHI118.4allowed, +4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.3%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.0%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)46.5%25.3%−9.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.194+0.5
Everything else+7.6

BOS109.0allowed, −4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.0%54.3%+8.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.0%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%25.3%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.194−0.3
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 95.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 99.5 and BOS 92.1 → average 95.8 (league 2024-25: 99.4)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestPHI5 daysBOS5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI5days

Last played Apr 13 against CHI (192 days, capped at 5).

BOS5days

Last played May 16 against NYK (159 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 13CHI102–12236-9412-4418-2114295.3114.0107.0
Apr 11ATL110–12443-9712-3512-15148107.8124.0101.0
Apr 9@WAS122–10339-9116-5028-381611117.399.0104.0
Apr 7@MIA105–11738-8812-3817-25139108.2120.697.0
Apr 5MIN109–11444-9112-359-1588114.7120.095.0
Apr 3MIL113–12643-8912-3915-19138117.7131.396.0
Apr 1@NYK91–10534-816-3117-2219694.8108.296.5
Mar 30TOR109–12742-898-2917-19163100.0117.6108.5
Mar 29MIA95–11838-7613-326-14185102.2126.993.0
Mar 26WAS114–11942-9814-4616-20410116.3122.797.5

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 16@NYK81–11931-8612-407-1015886.2125.394.5
May 14NYK127–10244-8422-4917-26811139.6112.191.0
May 12@NYK113–12138-7918-4819-26127120.2128.794.0
May 10@NYK115–9340-8320-4015-17812129.2103.389.5
May 7NYK90–9134-9410-4012-15161694.794.895.5
May 5NYK105–10834-9715-6022-261319104.0105.991.9
Apr 29ORL120–8943-7613-2421-24113129.095.793.0
Apr 27@ORL107–9834-789-3130-321011115.1105.493.0
Apr 25@ORL93–9533-749-2718-22198102.2105.690.5
Apr 23ORL109–10036-8012-3725-331013122.5113.688.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
17%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
15 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −1 for BOS
9th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
360th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.78 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHIBOS
Final score117116
Field goals39–85 · 45.9%41–91 · 45.1%
Three-pointers16–41 · 39.0%11–43 · 25.6%
Free throws23–30 · 76.7%23–26 · 88.5%
Rebounds4042
Assists2316
Turnovers1411
Steals37
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+14−1−15
Total points216233+17
PHI points101117+16
BOS points115116+1

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 13 vs CHI L 102–122
Apr 11 vs ATL L 110–124
Apr 9 at WAS W 122–103
Apr 7 at MIA L 105–117
Apr 5 vs MIN L 109–114

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
May 16 at NYK L 81–119
May 14 vs NYK W 127–102
May 12 at NYK L 113–121
May 10 at NYK W 115–93
May 7 vs NYK L 90–91

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 6 2024-25 PHI at BOS PHI 105 – 123 BOS
Feb 20 2024-25 BOS at PHI BOS 124 – 104 PHI
Feb 2 2024-25 BOS at PHI BOS 118 – 110 PHI
Dec 25 2024-25 PHI at BOS PHI 118 – 114 BOS
Feb 27 2023-24 PHI at BOS PHI 99 – 117 BOS