The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jun 14

2023-24 · Playoffs · Final

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks

Friday, June 14, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 5–2@DAL 4–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 49 percent, DAL 51 percent. BOS Celtics 49% proj. 107 · final 84 DAL Mavericks · home 51% proj. 105 · final 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 107 84 −23
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 105 122 +17

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 49% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSDAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17631654
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −38
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +11.1+2.1
Games played this season 99102
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.4113.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.3112.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 93.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1763DAL1654

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1763

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. First 89 games: +89.6
  3. Last 10 games: +57.3
  • W@CLE106–93+8.4
  • W@CLE109–102+5.3
  • WCLE113–98+4.0
  • WIND133–128+3.4
  • WIND126–110+6.5
  • W@IND114–111+4.6
  • W@IND105–102+4.4
  • WDAL107–89+8.6
  • WDAL105–98+4.4
  • W@DAL106–99+7.7

DAL1654

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 92 games: +163.6
  3. Last 10 games: +37.8
  • W@OKC104–92+17.7
  • WOKC117–116+3.4
  • W@MIN108–105+8.4
  • W@MIN109–108+5.8
  • WMIN116–107+8.3
  • LMIN100–105−8.6
  • W@MIN124–103+23.5
  • L@BOS89–107−8.6
  • L@BOS98–105−4.4
  • LBOS99–106−7.7
Season scoring marginBOS+11.1DAL+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+11.1

Scores 118.8, allows 107.7 over 99 games: +11.1 a game.

DAL+2.1

Scores 115.5, allows 113.4 over 102 games: +2.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS119.4DAL113.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

BOS119.4scored, +5.0 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%54.7%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%11.5%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%24.1%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.194−0.2
Everything else−0.6

DAL113.8scored, −0.7 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.7%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.5%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%24.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.194+0.2
Everything else−2.0
Defensive rating, last 10BOS109.3DAL112.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

BOS109.3allowed, −5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.7%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.5%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1290.194+1.9
Everything else−0.2

DAL112.7allowed, −1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.7%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)9.6%11.5%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.6%24.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.194+0.5
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 93.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 93.1 and DAL 93.5 → average 93.3 (league 2023-24 to date: 98.8)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-06-14 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-06-14 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Jun 12 against DAL.

DAL2days

Last played Jun 12 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 12@DAL106–9938-8217-4613-1496115.2106.592.5
Jun 9DAL105–9838-8410-3919-201010110.5105.494.0
Jun 6DAL107–8939-8216-4213-191210115.194.793.5
May 27@IND105–10240-8914-4411-141112111.7108.594.0
May 25@IND114–11139-8316-4620-2677121.3116.894.5
May 23IND126–11047-8815-3717-201013134.0118.393.5
May 21IND133–12847-9915-4524-301413117.7115.3101.4
May 15CLE113–9842-8019-4310-121211129.9112.687.0
May 13@CLE109–10238-7812-3221-241410118.5110.992.0
May 11@CLE106–9341-8013-3411-14119120.5104.588.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 12BOS99–10638-869-2514-1687106.5115.292.5
Jun 9@BOS98–10538-806-2616-24159105.4110.594.0
Jun 6@BOS89–10735-847-2712-19111094.7115.193.5
May 30@MIN124–10346-8415-3417-23129127.8105.197.5
May 28MIN100–10534-8114-4018-211310107.5112.993.0
May 26MIN116–10738-6814-2826-31147127.5117.691.0
May 24@MIN109–10841-8412-3115-221011114.7114.994.5
May 22@MIN108–10543-876-2516-171311113.7110.595.0
May 18OKC117–11642-8216-3417-241714123.2120.895.5
May 15@OKC104–9240-7614-3510-13149116.9104.588.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
51%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
DAL was the forecast favorite
40 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +38 for DAL
477th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSDAL
Final score84122
Field goals29–80 · 36.3%46–91 · 50.5%
Three-pointers14–41 · 34.1%15–37 · 40.5%
Free throws12–13 · 92.3%15–22 · 68.2%
Rebounds3152
Assists1821
Turnovers138
Steals27
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)−2+38+40
Total points212206−6
BOS points10784−23
DAL points105122+17

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BOS21142524–84
DAL34273130–122

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Jun 12 at DAL W 106–99
Jun 9 vs DAL W 105–98
Jun 6 vs DAL W 107–89
May 27 at IND W 105–102
May 25 at IND W 114–111

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Jun 12 vs BOS L 99–106
Jun 9 at BOS L 98–105
Jun 6 at BOS L 89–107
May 30 at MIN W 124–103
May 28 vs MIN L 100–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jun 12 2023-24 BOS at DAL BOS 106 – 99 DAL
Jun 9 2023-24 DAL at BOS DAL 98 – 105 BOS
Jun 6 2023-24 DAL at BOS DAL 89 – 107 BOS
Mar 1 2023-24 DAL at BOS DAL 110 – 138 BOS
Jan 22 2023-24 BOS at DAL BOS 119 – 110 DAL