2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

Wednesday, October 30, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 0–0@PHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DET Detroit Pistons	103	105	+2
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	115	95	−20

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DET	PHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1334	1504
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+240
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.9	+1.5
Games played this season	4	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.5	113.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.6	113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1334PHI1504

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1334

Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
This season's 4 games: −12.4

LIND109–115−3.9
L@CLE101–113−3.5
LBOS118–124−2.1
L@MIA98–106−2.9

PHI1504

Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
This season's 3 games: −20.3

LMIL109–124−17.5
L@TOR107–115−12.7
W@IND118–114+9.9

Season scoring marginDET−8.9PHI+1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−8.9

Scores 106.5, allows 114.5 over 4 games: −8.0 a game.

20% this season (−8.0) + 80% last season (−9.1) = −8.9

PHI+1.5

Scores 111.3, allows 117.7 over 3 games: −6.3 a game.

15% this season (−6.3) + 85% last season (+2.8) = +1.5

Offensive rating, last 10DET104.5PHI113.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

DET104.5scored, −9.9 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.7%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	11.5%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	24.1%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.194	−0.7
Everything else			−0.3

PHI113.2scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	54.7%	−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	11.5%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	24.1%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.258	0.194	+1.9
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10DET115.6PHI113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

DET115.6allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.7%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	11.5%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	24.1%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.194	−0.1
Everything else			+0.8

PHI113.0allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.7%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.5%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	24.1%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.194	−1.3
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 96.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 98.5 and PHI 94.7 → average 96.6 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingDET0.0PHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysPHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Oct 28 against MIA.

PHI3days

Last played Oct 27 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@MIA	98–106	35-91	14-38	14-17	16	19	102.1	110.4	96.0
Oct 26	BOS	118–124	43-88	14-39	18-22	14	9	121.6	126.5	97.5
Oct 25	@CLE	101–113	38-81	13-32	12-17	22	8	101.0	114.1	99.5
Oct 23	IND	109–115	38-88	9-33	24-28	12	12	110.1	113.9	100.0
Apr 14	@SAS	95–123	36-92	8-33	15-20	14	11	94.1	123.0	100.5
Apr 12	@DAL	107–89	46-95	8-31	7-9	6	6	107.0	89.0	100.0
Apr 11	CHI	105–127	38-77	14-35	15-23	20	7	107.1	130.9	97.5
Apr 9	@PHI	102–120	34-84	14-30	20-24	16	9	101.0	120.0	100.5
Apr 6	@BKN	103–113	42-92	17-39	2-4	7	5	108.4	117.7	95.5
Apr 5	@MEM	90–108	32-79	8-30	18-24	17	5	92.8	110.2	97.5

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@IND	118–114	42-98	11-42	23-31	19	20	108.3	105.6	98.3
Oct 25	@TOR	107–115	29-76	9-29	40-53	16	10	104.9	113.9	101.5
Oct 23	MIL	109–124	41-98	8-31	19-27	10	17	109.0	121.6	101.0
May 2	NYK	115–118	38-87	17-40	22-23	11	16	126.4	129.7	91.0
Apr 30	@NYK	112–106	42-91	15-39	13-19	16	12	110.9	103.9	91.9
Apr 28	NYK	92–97	29-82	9-33	25-29	8	9	101.1	106.6	91.0
Apr 25	NYK	125–114	41-75	15-31	28-33	10	8	137.4	123.9	91.5
Apr 22	@NYK	101–104	36-84	13-36	16-22	10	10	109.8	113.0	92.0
Apr 20	@NYK	104–111	36-81	12-35	20-22	11	9	116.9	124.7	89.0
Apr 14	BKN	107–86	41-96	14-44	11-15	12	13	107.0	86.9	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner

the forecast favored PHI

22 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −10 for PHI

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

145th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DET	PHI
Final score	105	95
Field goals	36–78 · 46.2%	33–79 · 41.8%
Three-pointers	15–36 · 41.7%	8–28 · 28.6%
Free throws	18–22 · 81.8%	21–28 · 75.0%
Rebounds	49	37
Assists	23	17
Turnovers	16	9
Steals	4	7
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	+12	−10	−22
Total points	218	200	−18
DET points	103	105	+2
PHI points	115	95	−20

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DET	22	32	31	20	–	105
PHI	26	19	22	28	–	95

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 28	at MIA	L 98–106
Oct 26	vs BOS	L 118–124
Oct 25	at CLE	L 101–113
Oct 23	vs IND	L 109–115
Apr 14	at SAS	L 95–123

Philadelphia 76ers

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 27	at IND	W 118–114
Oct 25	at TOR	L 107–115
Oct 23	vs MIL	L 109–124
May 2	vs NYK	L 115–118
Apr 30	at NYK	W 112–106

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Apr 9 2023-24	DET at PHI	DET 102 – 120 PHI
Dec 15 2023-24	DET at PHI	DET 92 – 124 PHI
Dec 13 2023-24	PHI at DET	PHI 129 – 111 DET
Nov 10 2023-24	PHI at DET	PHI 114 – 106 DET
Jan 10 2022-23	DET at PHI	DET 116 – 147 PHI