2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets

Monday, January 29, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 1–1@BKN 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
UTA Utah Jazz	115	114	−1
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	112	147	+35

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 51% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	UTA	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1541	1445
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−27
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.4	−1.6
Games played this season	47	45
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	126.0	111.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.7	111.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	6.5
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1541BKN1445

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1541

Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
First 37 games: +41.9
Last 10 games: +64.4

W@MIL132–116+25.0
WDEN124–111+14.5
WTOR145–113+15.0
WLAL132–125+4.8
WIND132–105+16.8
LOKC129–134−6.8
L@HOU126–127−4.4
L@NOP124–153−12.8
W@WAS123–108+7.3
W@CHA134–122+5.0

BKN1445

Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
First 35 games: −44.4
Last 10 games: +0.3

WOKC124–115+14.8
LPOR127–134−15.8
L@CLE102–111−4.6
LMIA95–96−3.3
L@POR103–105−5.9
W@LAL130–112+22.8
L@LAC114–125−3.6
LNYK103–108−4.7
LMIN94–96−3.3
WHOU106–104+3.9

Season scoring marginUTA−1.4BKN−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−1.4

Scores 117.9, allows 119.3 over 47 games: −1.4 a game.

BKN−1.6

Scores 113.3, allows 114.9 over 45 games: −1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10UTA126.0BKN111.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

UTA126.0scored, +10.8 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.8%	+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	11.6%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.0%	24.4%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.204	+1.1
Everything else			+0.4

BKN111.1scored, −4.1 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.8%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.6%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.4%	24.4%	−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.204	−0.3
Everything else			+0.5

Defensive rating, last 10UTA117.7BKN111.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

UTA117.7allowed, +2.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.8%	−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	11.6%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.3%	24.4%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.204	+0.0
Everything else			−0.8

BKN111.5allowed, −3.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.8%	+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	11.6%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	24.4%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.204	−1.0
Everything else			+0.8

Pace, last 10average 99.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 102.2 and BKN 97.0 → average 99.6 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingUTA0.0BKN6.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BKN6.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dorian Finney-Smith	6.5	29.0	10

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Jan 27 against CHA.

BKN2days

Last played Jan 27 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 27	@CHA	134–122	52-93	17-41	13-17	13	15	134.0	120.8	100.5
Jan 25	@WAS	123–108	50-97	13-31	10-12	15	13	119.4	104.9	103.0
Jan 23	@NOP	124–153	43-92	12-36	26-32	8	6	117.0	145.7	105.5
Jan 20	@HOU	126–127	48-105	13-43	17-22	17	16	114.5	117.6	98.7
Jan 18	OKC	129–134	43-89	13-32	30-36	14	11	122.9	127.6	105.0
Jan 15	IND	132–105	45-81	11-25	31-35	14	10	130.7	102.9	101.5
Jan 13	LAL	132–125	42-93	12-37	36-39	10	13	123.4	119.0	106.0
Jan 12	TOR	145–113	52-93	21-43	20-26	13	12	140.8	111.9	102.0
Jan 10	DEN	124–111	46-83	13-33	19-23	16	7	122.8	111.0	100.5
Jan 8	@MIL	132–116	47-90	20-44	18-22	10	10	134.7	116.0	99.0

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 27	HOU	106–104	36-74	12-34	22-37	19	2	101.9	99.0	104.5
Jan 25	MIN	94–96	35-77	10-33	14-16	13	5	102.2	104.3	92.0
Jan 23	NYK	103–108	42-95	15-42	4-5	13	13	112.0	116.1	92.5
Jan 21	@LAC	114–125	44-90	14-39	12-16	12	6	112.9	123.8	101.0
Jan 19	@LAL	130–112	50-95	19-47	11-14	8	8	130.0	110.9	100.5
Jan 17	@POR	103–105	35-73	15-38	18-27	10	6	114.4	118.0	89.5
Jan 15	MIA	95–96	34-99	12-55	15-16	8	9	93.1	94.1	92.4
Jan 11	@CLE	102–111	37-82	8-27	20-28	16	6	102.0	109.9	100.5
Jan 7	POR	127–134	46-91	14-37	21-25	15	8	118.7	125.2	96.9
Jan 5	OKC	124–115	41-91	14-39	28-33	15	14	124.0	113.9	100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

49%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

36 pts

margin miss

forecast −3, actual +33 for BKN

416th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.72 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	UTA	BKN
Final score	114	147
Field goals	39–86 · 45.3%	54–105 · 51.4%
Three-pointers	9–27 · 33.3%	21–45 · 46.7%
Free throws	27–34 · 79.4%	18–19 · 94.7%
Rebounds	44	50
Assists	23	41
Turnovers	17	8
Steals	3	12
Blocks	7	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	−3	+33	+36
Total points	227	261	+34
UTA points	115	114	−1
BKN points	112	147	+35

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
UTA	28	29	30	27	–	114
BKN	43	28	33	43	–	147

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 27	at CHA	W 134–122
Jan 25	at WAS	W 123–108
Jan 23	at NOP	L 124–153
Jan 20	at HOU	L 126–127
Jan 18	vs OKC	L 129–134

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 27	vs HOU	W 106–104
Jan 25	vs MIN	L 94–96
Jan 23	vs NYK	L 103–108
Jan 21	at LAC	L 114–125
Jan 19	at LAL	W 130–112

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Dec 18 2023-24	BKN at UTA	BKN 108 – 125 UTA
Apr 2 2022-23	UTA at BKN	UTA 110 – 111 BKN
Jan 20 2022-23	BKN at UTA	BKN 117 – 106 UTA
Mar 21 2021-22	UTA at BKN	UTA 106 – 114 BKN
Feb 4 2021-22	BKN at UTA	BKN 102 – 125 UTA