The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 5

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Tuesday, March 5, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

PHX 0–1@DEN 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHX 28 percent, DEN 72 percent. PHX Suns 28% proj. 110 · final 117 DEN Nuggets · home 72% proj. 119 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHX Phoenix Suns 110 117 +7
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 119 107 −12

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHXDEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15551631
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +145
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.7+4.3
Games played this season 6161
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.5114.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.7109.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 25.50.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1555DEN1631

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1555

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1539
  2. First 51 games: +43.4
  3. Last 10 games: −26.5
  • WUTA129–115+7.7
  • L@GSW112–113−3.5
  • WSAC130–125+4.0
  • WDET116–100+2.2
  • L@DAL113–123−9.7
  • L@HOU110–114−8.1
  • WLAL123–113+6.2
  • WHOU110–105+2.7
  • LHOU109–118−18.4
  • LOKC110–118−9.6

DEN1631

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1676 → started this one at 1632
  2. First 51 games: −10.1
  3. Last 10 games: +8.6
  • W@LAL114–106+7.4
  • L@SAC106–135−25.9
  • L@MIL95–112−13.5
  • LSAC98–102−9.9
  • WWAS130–110+2.9
  • W@POR127–112+6.0
  • W@GSW119–103+17.7
  • WSAC117–96+9.5
  • WMIA103–97+4.9
  • W@LAL124–114+9.5
Season scoring marginPHX+2.7DEN+4.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX+2.7

Scores 117.1, allows 114.4 over 61 games: +2.7 a game.

DEN+4.3

Scores 114.5, allows 110.3 over 61 games: +4.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHX112.5DEN114.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

PHX112.5scored, −2.5 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.8%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.6%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%24.2%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2500.199+1.5
Everything else−0.1

DEN114.1scored, −0.8 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.8%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.6%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%24.2%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1570.199−1.2
Everything else−0.3
Defensive rating, last 10PHX110.7DEN109.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

PHX110.7allowed, −4.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.8%+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%11.6%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%24.2%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.199+0.8
Everything else+0.9

DEN109.7allowed, −5.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.8%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.6%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%24.2%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.199+1.1
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 101.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 103.5 and DEN 99.3 → average 101.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingPHX25.5DEN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX25.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Devin Booker25.534.28

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-05 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHX2 daysDEN3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX2days

Last played Mar 3 against OKC.

DEN3days

Last played Mar 2 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 3OKC110–11840-9114-3916-182115107.8114.6102.5
Mar 2HOU109–11839-859-2922-29199101.9108.3108.0
Feb 29HOU110–10536-8913-3725-371414105.8101.0104.0
Feb 25LAL123–11344-9317-4018-191214124.2114.199.0
Feb 23@HOU110–11438-957-3127-351019106.8110.7103.0
Feb 22@DAL113–12340-8315-3618-241611117.7128.196.0
Feb 14DET116–10035-7710-3136-44239104.590.9110.5
Feb 13SAC130–12544-8513-3129-36127122.6120.2105.0
Feb 10@GSW112–11343-9411-3415-16149106.7107.6105.0
Feb 8UTA129–11552-8814-2911-16125126.5111.7102.5

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 2@LAL124–11454-9211-265-71011130.5121.394.5
Feb 29MIA103–9736-8412-3419-21159103.096.0100.5
Feb 28SAC117–9646-8615-3510-11155118.298.098.5
Feb 25@GSW119–10343-8811-3222-261012121.4104.098.5
Feb 23@POR127–11250-8513-3314-221211132.3117.995.5
Feb 22WAS130–11056-1017-3111-151613120.4101.9108.0
Feb 14SAC98–10235-899-2619-22121297.0100.0101.5
Feb 12@MIL95–11236-9411-4012-17131296.9115.597.5
Feb 9@SAC106–13538-8210-2920-28209102.9131.1103.0
Feb 8@LAL114–10647-9714-326-71214118.8111.695.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −10 for DEN
23rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
225th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHXDEN
Final score117107
Field goals42–96 · 43.8%41–96 · 42.7%
Three-pointers15–34 · 44.1%15–40 · 37.5%
Free throws18–22 · 81.8%10–14 · 71.4%
Rebounds5251
Assists3225
Turnovers914
Steals96
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+9−10−19
Total points229224−5
PHX points110117+7
DEN points119107−12

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
PHX2837251215117
DEN321831215107

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Mar 3 vs OKC L 110–118
Mar 2 vs HOU L 109–118
Feb 29 vs HOU W 110–105
Feb 25 vs LAL W 123–113
Feb 23 at HOU L 110–114

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Mar 2 at LAL W 124–114
Feb 29 vs MIA W 103–97
Feb 28 vs SAC W 117–96
Feb 25 at GSW W 119–103
Feb 23 at POR W 127–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 1 2023-24 DEN at PHX DEN 119 – 111 PHX
May 11 2022-23 DEN at PHX DEN 125 – 100 PHX
May 9 2022-23 PHX at DEN PHX 102 – 118 DEN
May 7 2022-23 DEN at PHX DEN 124 – 129 PHX
May 5 2022-23 DEN at PHX DEN 114 – 121 PHX