2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic

Wednesday, January 4, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 4–0@ORL 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	121	115	−6
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	111	126	+15

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1454	1379
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.7	−4.2
Games played this season	37	37
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.4	113.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.8	112.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.4	44.3
Rest days	1	5
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1454ORL1379

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1454

Ended last season at 1330 → started this one at 1373
First 27 games: +49.1
Last 10 games: +32.1

LMIA108–110−4.4
LMIN110–112−5.0
WMEM115–109+12.2
WPOR123–121+4.2
WPOR101–98+4.7
LNOP125–128−4.2
WSAS130–114+8.2
L@CHA113–121−8.6
LPHI96–115−11.5
WBOS150–117+36.5

ORL1379

Ended last season at 1336 → started this one at 1377
First 27 games: −27.9
Last 10 games: +29.8

WTOR111–99+16.2
WATL135–124+13.3
W@BOS117–109+22.6
W@BOS95–92+12.8
L@ATL125–126−2.2
W@HOU116–110+8.2
WSAS133–113+10.1
LLAL110–129−19.2
L@DET101–121−16.1
LWAS100–119−15.9

Season scoring marginOKC−0.7ORL−4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC−0.7

Scores 116.1, allows 116.8 over 37 games: −0.7 a game.

ORL−4.2

Scores 109.8, allows 113.9 over 37 games: −4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC113.4ORL113.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

OKC113.4scored, +0.5 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	54.3%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.5%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	23.8%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.212	+0.2
Everything else			+0.9

ORL113.2scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.3%	−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.5%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	23.8%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.212	+0.6
Everything else			−0.1

Defensive rating, last 10OKC110.8ORL112.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

OKC110.8allowed, −2.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.3%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.5%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.200	0.212	+0.3
Everything else			+1.1

ORL112.9allowed, −0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.3%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.5%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.0%	23.8%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.251	0.212	−1.1
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 102.2 and ORL 101.2 → average 101.7 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC7.4ORL44.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC7.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Aleksej Pokusevski	7.4	18.7	7

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-04 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

ORL44.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Franz Wagner	20.5	33.4	10
Moritz Wagner	13.7	24.7	9
Bol Bol	10.1	23.7	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestOKC1 daysORL5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 3 against BOS.

ORL5days

Last played Dec 30 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 3	BOS	150–117	58-98	20-40	14-22	13	9	140.2	110.4	106.5
Dec 31	PHI	96–115	35-92	12-36	14-22	16	15	94.1	112.7	102.0
Dec 29	@CHA	113–121	42-99	11-36	18-21	12	11	109.7	116.3	103.5
Dec 27	SAS	130–114	46-86	13-24	25-31	12	13	131.3	114.0	99.5
Dec 23	NOP	125–128	47-102	13-35	18-25	18	10	104.2	107.6	108.2
Dec 21	POR	101–98	36-77	8-24	21-25	18	9	107.4	104.3	94.0
Dec 19	POR	123–121	40-88	11-31	32-37	10	11	123.0	119.8	100.5
Dec 17	MEM	115–109	38-92	19-45	20-31	9	9	107.5	102.8	106.5
Dec 16	MIN	110–112	41-88	11-37	17-21	22	9	106.8	108.7	103.0
Dec 14	MIA	108–110	41-82	9-24	17-23	14	7	110.2	111.1	98.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 30	WAS	100–119	42-100	5-27	11-16	11	8	93.5	111.2	107.0
Dec 28	@DET	101–121	35-85	5-22	26-34	13	15	102.0	122.2	99.0
Dec 27	LAL	110–129	42-84	10-28	16-25	11	8	110.0	127.7	100.5
Dec 23	SAS	133–113	50-87	17-32	16-20	17	7	127.9	109.7	103.5
Dec 21	@HOU	116–110	41-91	11-37	23-33	11	11	114.9	107.8	101.5
Dec 19	@ATL	125–126	45-95	12-34	23-25	8	10	123.8	126.0	100.5
Dec 18	@BOS	95–92	33-86	12-29	17-19	13	6	94.1	90.2	101.5
Dec 16	@BOS	117–109	42-91	9-33	24-28	17	15	112.5	106.9	103.0
Dec 14	ATL	135–124	47-93	16-36	25-30	11	14	132.4	120.4	102.5
Dec 11	TOR	111–99	36-77	14-31	25-31	14	11	120.7	106.5	92.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

21 pts

margin miss

forecast −10, actual +11 for ORL

33rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

136th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	ORL
Final score	115	126
Field goals	36–89 · 40.4%	42–81 · 51.9%
Three-pointers	15–37 · 40.5%	13–33 · 39.4%
Free throws	28–31 · 90.3%	29–36 · 80.6%
Rebounds	33	49
Assists	23	26
Turnovers	9	16
Steals	9	6
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	−10	+11	+21
Total points	232	241	+9
OKC points	121	115	−6
ORL points	111	126	+15

Recent form before this game