The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 1

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Friday, May 1, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

DET 2–4@ORL 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 37 percent, ORL 63 percent. DET Pistons 37% proj. 109 · final 93 ORL Magic · home 63% proj. 114 · final 79
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 109 93 −16
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 114 79 −35

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
37%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored ORL
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual −14 for ORL
173rd
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
229th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.99 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETORL
Final score9379
Field goals32–80 · 40.0%27–78 · 34.6%
Three-pointers9–27 · 33.3%9–36 · 25.0%
Free throws20–26 · 76.9%16–21 · 76.2%
Rebounds5238
Assists1620
Turnovers1010
Steals56
Blocks84

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)+5−14−19
Total points223172−51
DET points10993−16
ORL points11479−35

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-05-01 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Detroit Pistons

  • Questionable Kevin Huerter · Left Adductor;Strain
  • Questionable Tobias Harris · Left Ankle;Sprain

Orlando Magic

  • Out Franz Wagner · Right Calf;Strain
  • Out Jonathan Isaac · Left Knee;Sprain

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Apr 29 vs ORL W 116–109
Apr 27 at ORL L 88–94
Apr 25 at ORL L 105–113
Apr 22 vs ORL W 98–83
Apr 19 vs ORL L 101–112

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Apr 29 at DET L 109–116
Apr 27 vs DET W 94–88
Apr 25 vs DET W 113–105
Apr 22 at DET L 83–98
Apr 19 at DET W 112–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 29 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 109 – 116 DET
Apr 27 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 88 – 94 ORL
Apr 25 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 105 – 113 ORL
Apr 22 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 83 – 98 DET
Apr 19 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 112 – 101 DET