2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET

OKC 3–7@PHX 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	112	121	+9
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	105	109	+4

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

68%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

5 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual −12 for PHX

887th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

901st

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	PHX
Final score	121	109
Field goals	45–91 · 49.5%	38–87 · 43.7%
Three-pointers	12–37 · 32.4%	13–41 · 31.7%
Free throws	19–21 · 90.5%	20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds	43	39
Assists	23	25
Turnovers	7	11
Steals	6	2
Blocks	6	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	−7	−12	−5
Total points	217	230	+13
OKC points	112	121	+9
PHX points	105	109	+4

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-25 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.