The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 30

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Thursday, April 30, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

DEN 4–4@MIN 2–9 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 68 percent, MIN 32 percent. DEN Nuggets 68% proj. 119 · final 98 MIN Timberwolves · home 32% proj. 112 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 119 98 −21
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 112 110 −2

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
32%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
19 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual +12 for MIN
111th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
229th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.13 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENMIN
Final score98110
Field goals34–75 · 45.3%43–94 · 45.7%
Three-pointers10–27 · 37.0%7–29 · 24.1%
Free throws20–25 · 80.0%17–24 · 70.8%
Rebounds3350
Assists2426
Turnovers137
Steals48
Blocks83

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)−7+12+19
Total points231208−23
DEN points11998−21
MIN points112110−2

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-30 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Denver Nuggets

  • Out Peyton Watson
  • Questionable Aaron Gordon · Left Calf;Tightness

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Out Anthony Edwards · Left Knee;Bone Bruise
  • Out Donte DiVincenzo
  • Questionable Ayo Dosunmu · Right Calf;Soreness

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 27 vs MIN W 125–113
Apr 25 at MIN L 96–112
Apr 23 at MIN L 96–113
Apr 20 vs MIN L 114–119
Apr 18 vs MIN W 116–105

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Apr 27 at DEN L 113–125
Apr 25 vs DEN W 112–96
Apr 23 vs DEN W 113–96
Apr 20 at DEN W 119–114
Apr 18 at DEN L 105–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 27 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 113 – 125 DEN
Apr 25 2025-26 DEN at MIN DEN 96 – 112 MIN
Apr 23 2025-26 DEN at MIN DEN 96 – 113 MIN
Apr 20 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 119 – 114 DEN
Apr 18 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 105 – 116 DEN