2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Saturday, May 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

PHI 5–4@BOS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	100	109	+9
BOS Boston Celtics (home)	105	100	−5

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	BOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1553	1651
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+168
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.5	+7.5
Games played this season	88	88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.8	117.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.2	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	3 home series wins, elimination game

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1553BOS1651

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1553

Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
First 78 games: +166.8
Last 10 games: +45.4

L@SAS102–115−2.8
L@HOU102–113−5.2
W@IND105–94+7.8
WMIL126–106+5.9
L@BOS91–123−7.4
W@BOS111–97+26.7
LBOS100–108−6.9
LBOS96–128−16.5
W@BOS113–97+28.8
WBOS106–93+15.0

BOS1651

Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
First 78 games: +61.4
Last 10 games: −33.0

WCHA113–102+7.4
L@NYK106–112−7.0
WNOP144–118+3.6
WORL113–108+2.7
WPHI123–91+7.4
LPHI97–111−26.7
W@PHI108–100+6.9
W@PHI128–96+16.5
LPHI97–113−28.8
L@PHI93–106−15.0

Season scoring marginPHI−0.5BOS+7.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−0.5

Scores 115.0, allows 115.5 over 88 games: −0.5 a game.

BOS+7.5

Scores 114.4, allows 106.9 over 88 games: +7.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI108.8BOS117.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI108.8scored, −5.8 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.6%	−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.8%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	26.0%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.209	−0.6
Everything else			−1.8

BOS117.9scored, +3.3 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.6%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	26.0%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.209	−1.2
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10PHI111.2BOS111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI111.2allowed, −3.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.6%	+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	26.0%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.209	+1.0
Everything else			−1.1

BOS111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.6%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	12.2%	−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	26.0%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.209	+0.7
Everything else			−0.9

Pace, last 10average 96.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 97.0 and BOS 95.1 → average 96.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-02 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Apr 30 against BOS.

BOS2days

Last played Apr 30 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 30	BOS	106–93	39-89	11-33	17-19	10	8	107.1	93.0	99.5
Apr 28	@BOS	113–97	39-78	15-42	20-23	9	5	120.2	103.2	94.0
Apr 26	BOS	96–128	33-80	9-30	21-24	8	6	102.1	139.1	93.0
Apr 24	BOS	100–108	38-87	12-35	12-16	11	13	112.4	121.3	89.0
Apr 21	@BOS	111–97	43-90	19-39	6-11	7	12	126.1	107.8	89.0
Apr 19	@BOS	91–123	35-90	4-23	17-23	14	11	93.8	126.8	97.0
Apr 12	MIL	126–106	47-91	16-41	16-21	12	10	121.2	101.9	104.0
Apr 10	@IND	105–94	42-104	5-29	16-19	8	16	101.0	89.5	104.5
Apr 9	@HOU	102–113	38-85	11-32	15-23	16	11	99.0	110.8	102.5
Apr 6	@SAS	102–115	34-88	10-31	24-29	11	17	105.2	118.6	97.0

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 30	@PHI	93–106	36-86	12-41	9-16	13	8	93.0	107.1	99.5
Apr 28	PHI	97–113	36-89	11-39	14-23	12	15	103.2	120.2	94.0
Apr 26	@PHI	128–96	42-87	24-53	20-28	12	14	139.1	102.1	93.0
Apr 24	@PHI	108–100	36-81	20-47	16-17	17	15	121.3	112.4	89.0
Apr 21	PHI	97–111	35-89	13-50	14-18	11	18	107.8	126.1	89.0
Apr 19	PHI	123–91	45-90	16-44	17-22	8	5	126.8	93.8	97.0
Apr 12	ORL	113–108	36-87	19-50	22-22	17	7	107.6	102.9	105.0
Apr 10	NOP	144–118	52-96	29-59	11-15	13	9	137.1	112.4	105.0
Apr 9	@NYK	106–112	38-84	16-43	14-16	10	13	120.5	127.3	88.0
Apr 7	CHA	113–102	43-87	17-42	10-12	12	13	122.8	112.1	91.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

36%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored BOS

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +5, actual −9 for BOS

144th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.02 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	BOS
Final score	109	100
Field goals	39–82 · 47.6%	37–93 · 39.8%
Three-pointers	11–28 · 39.3%	13–49 · 26.5%
Free throws	20–23 · 87.0%	13–16 · 81.3%
Rebounds	44	44
Assists	25	19
Turnovers	9	5
Steals	0	4
Blocks	1	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)	+5	−9	−14
Total points	205	209	+4
PHI points	100	109	+9
BOS points	105	100	−5

Recent form before this game