The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 25

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

ORL 0–0@PHI 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 69 percent, PHI 31 percent. ORL Magic 69% proj. 116 · final 144 PHI 76ers · home 31% proj. 109 · final 103
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 116 144 +28
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 109 103 −6

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputORLPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15421406
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −66
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.9−0.1
Games played this season 1816
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 120.0113.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.4114.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.864.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1542PHI1406

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1542

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
  2. First 8 games: −27.5
  3. Last 10 games: +65.2
  • WBOS123–110+14.0
  • LBOS107–111−6.1
  • WPOR115–112+5.1
  • W@NYK124–107+25.6
  • WBKN105–98+2.1
  • L@HOU113–117−3.0
  • WGSW121–113+9.2
  • WLAC129–101+14.5
  • WNYK133–121+10.6
  • L@BOS129–138−6.8

PHI1406

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
  2. First 6 games: +52.4
  3. Last 10 games: +13.1
  • L@CHI111–113−1.7
  • L@CLE121–132−2.7
  • WTOR130–120+11.4
  • LDET108–111−3.9
  • WBOS102–100+6.9
  • L@DET105–114−3.3
  • WLAC110–108+5.6
  • LTOR112–121−8.1
  • W@MIL123–114+16.7
  • LMIA117–127−7.8
Season scoring marginORL+2.9PHI−0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL+2.9

Scores 118.3, allows 114.9 over 18 games: +3.3 a game.

90% this season (+3.3) + 10% last season (−0.8) = +2.9

PHI−0.1

Scores 118.3, allows 116.8 over 16 games: +1.5 a game.

80% this season (+1.5) + 20% last season (−6.2) = −0.1

Offensive rating, last 10ORL120.0PHI113.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ORL120.0scored, +5.3 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.5%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.6%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.3%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2880.226+1.8
Everything else+1.1

PHI113.1scored, −1.7 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.6%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.3%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.226−0.5
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10ORL113.4PHI114.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ORL113.4allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.6%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.3%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.226+0.6
Everything else+0.6

PHI114.8allowed, +0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.6%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.3%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.226+0.7
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 98.8 and PHI 99.8 → average 99.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.2)

Rotation points missingORL18.8PHI64.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL18.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero18.829.54

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHI64.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid24.525.82
Kelly Oubre Jr.14.031.66
Paul George13.322.03
VJ Edgecombe12.436.39

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Nov 23 against BOS.

PHI2days

Last played Nov 23 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 23@BOS129–13847-10016-3819-24718133.0142.397.0
Nov 22NYK133–12147-8513-3326-301311133.0119.8100.5
Nov 20LAC129–10145-9418-3421-241012122.996.2105.0
Nov 18GSW121–11343-858-3227-291410116.3110.8103.0
Nov 16@HOU113–11738-9112-3725-3489106.6111.495.5
Nov 14BKN105–9836-7815-3918-21197114.1106.592.0
Nov 12@NYK124–10742-8612-3328-331512121.6105.9101.5
Nov 10POR115–11239-878-3029-341311116.2114.398.5
Nov 9BOS107–11135-787-2930-321712112.6115.695.5
Nov 7BOS123–11041-8217-3624-311511124.2111.199.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 23MIA117–12744-9814-4115-191415110.4119.8106.0
Nov 20@MIL123–11442-9718-5321-261411113.9104.698.3
Nov 19TOR112–12141-8714-3516-182116114.3123.598.0
Nov 17LAC110–10839-8411-3321-3099115.8113.795.0
Nov 14@DET105–11439-9014-3913-151513105.0115.299.5
Nov 11BOS102–10036-8414-3616-1998108.5106.494.0
Nov 9DET108–11136-8412-3324-281912109.1111.099.5
Nov 8TOR130–12049-9610-3522-281315127.5117.6102.0
Nov 5@CLE121–13244-9012-3121-301815116.3125.7104.5
Nov 4@CHI111–11340-9411-3020-241612109.9110.8101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
69%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
ORL was the forecast favorite
34 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −41 for PHI
889th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
26th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.37 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLPHI
Final score144103
Field goals54–101 · 53.5%37–82 · 45.1%
Three-pointers13–34 · 38.2%9–25 · 36.0%
Free throws23–28 · 82.1%20–22 · 90.9%
Rebounds4738
Assists3822
Turnovers1121
Steals107
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−7−41−34
Total points225247+22
ORL points116144+28
PHI points109103−6

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Nov 23 at BOS L 129–138
Nov 22 vs NYK W 133–121
Nov 20 vs LAC W 129–101
Nov 18 vs GSW W 121–113
Nov 16 at HOU L 113–117

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 23 vs MIA L 117–127
Nov 20 at MIL W 123–114
Nov 19 vs TOR L 112–121
Nov 17 vs LAC W 110–108
Nov 14 at DET L 105–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 27 2025-26 ORL at PHI ORL 124 – 136 PHI
Jan 12 2024-25 PHI at ORL PHI 99 – 104 ORL
Dec 6 2024-25 ORL at PHI ORL 94 – 102 PHI
Dec 4 2024-25 ORL at PHI ORL 106 – 102 PHI
Nov 15 2024-25 PHI at ORL PHI 86 – 98 ORL