The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 22

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

LAC 0–0@UTA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 71 percent, UTA 29 percent. LAC Clippers 71% proj. 119 · final 108 UTA Jazz · home 29% proj. 111 · final 129
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 119 108 −11
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 111 129 +18

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputLACUTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16021338
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −194
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.3−9.3
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.5108.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1129.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1602UTA1338

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1602

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1636 → started this one at 1602
  2. No games played yet this season.

UTA1338

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginLAC+4.3UTA−9.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+4.3

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+4.3) = +4.3

UTA−9.3

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−9.3) = −9.3

Offensive rating, last 10LAC118.5UTA108.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

LAC118.5scored, +4.9 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.3%+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.0%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%25.3%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.194−0.6
Everything else+0.8

UTA108.9scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.3%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.0%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%25.3%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.194−0.4
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10LAC115.1UTA129.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

LAC115.1allowed, +1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.3%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.0%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%25.3%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.194+0.8
Everything else−0.7

UTA129.3allowed, +15.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)61.1%54.3%−10.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%12.0%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.6%25.3%−3.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.194+0.8
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 96.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingLAC0.0UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestLAC5 daysUTA5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC5days

Last played May 3 against DEN (172 days, capped at 5).

UTA5days

Last played Apr 13 against MIN (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 3@DEN101–12039-828-2715-22145104.1123.797.0
May 1DEN111–10543-8612-3913-1579124.7119.388.5
Apr 29@DEN115–13143-8211-2918-281010121.1139.494.5
Apr 26DEN99–10139-8810-3011-16913110.0111.090.5
Apr 24DEN117–8340-8318-3919-281014133.092.289.0
Apr 21@DEN105–10241-8513-3410-12116111.7110.993.0
Apr 19@DEN110–11243-8612-3312-162010108.9109.891.9
Apr 13@GSW124–11948-8614-3014-18167125.3119.090.1
Apr 11@SAC101–10040-787-2114-18127111.0107.592.0
Apr 9HOU134–11748-9019-3719-191111135.4118.299.0

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 13@MIN105–11640-8916-429-11137107.1119.697.5
Apr 11OKC111–14539-10317-6316-201613102.8135.5107.5
Apr 9POR133–12650-9815-3618-222413113.7107.7106.0
Apr 6@ATL134–14745-8720-4724-28107132.7144.1101.5
Apr 4@IND112–14039-10416-5218-211117108.7137.3102.5
Apr 2@HOU105–14340-9410-4015-2398102.9138.8102.5
Mar 31@CHA106–11039-9614-5214-151012111.6115.895.0
Mar 28@DEN93–12933-937-4020-24171490.3125.2103.0
Mar 27HOU110–12143-7911-2313-17163113.4123.597.5
Mar 25MEM103–14034-7817-4218-22134106.2145.896.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
29%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
29 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +21 for UTA
79th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
55th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACUTA
Final score108129
Field goals39–88 · 44.3%48–87 · 55.2%
Three-pointers14–45 · 31.1%17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws16–21 · 76.2%16–20 · 80.0%
Rebounds3846
Assists2838
Turnovers1512
Steals811
Blocks66

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−8+21+29
Total points230237+7
LAC points119108−11
UTA points111129+18

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
May 3 at DEN L 101–120
May 1 vs DEN W 111–105
Apr 29 at DEN L 115–131
Apr 26 vs DEN L 99–101
Apr 24 vs DEN W 117–83

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Apr 13 at MIN L 105–116
Apr 11 vs OKC L 111–145
Apr 9 vs POR W 133–126
Apr 6 at ATL L 134–147
Apr 4 at IND L 112–140

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 13 2024-25 LAC at UTA LAC 120 – 116 UTA
Feb 8 2024-25 UTA at LAC UTA 110 – 130 LAC
Dec 16 2024-25 UTA at LAC UTA 107 – 144 LAC
Nov 17 2024-25 UTA at LAC UTA 105 – 116 LAC
Apr 12 2023-24 UTA at LAC UTA 110 – 109 LAC