2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Saturday, January 25, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 0–0@MIN 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DEN Denver Nuggets	114	104	−10
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	110	133	+23

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DEN	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1643	1581
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.4	+1.9
Games played this season	44	44
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	123.1	116.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.2	112.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	46.6
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1643MIN1581

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1643

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1612
First 34 games: −19.3
Last 10 games: +49.9

LBOS106–118−10.7
WLAC126–103+11.6
WBKN124–105+3.6
W@DAL112–101+13.5
W@DAL118–99+17.7
LHOU108–128−22.3
W@MIA133–113+14.4
W@ORL113–100+9.7
WPHI144–109+7.0
WSAC132–123+5.4

MIN1581

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 34 games: −65.9
Last 10 games: +29.3

WLAC108–106+3.6
W@NOP104–97+4.8
W@ORL104–89+15.6
LMEM125–127−6.2
W@WAS120–106+4.1
LGSW115–116−6.6
W@NYK116–99+20.6
LCLE117–124−8.0
L@MEM106–108−3.3
W@DAL115–114+4.7

Season scoring marginDEN+5.4MIN+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+5.4

Scores 121.0, allows 115.6 over 44 games: +5.4 a game.

MIN+1.9

Scores 110.1, allows 108.2 over 44 games: +1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DEN123.1MIN116.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

DEN123.1scored, +10.3 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.6%	54.2%	+8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.4%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.8%	24.8%	+3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.192	+0.6
Everything else			−1.4

MIN116.7scored, +3.9 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	54.2%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.4%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.7%	24.8%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.192	+0.6
Everything else			−1.1

Defensive rating, last 10DEN111.2MIN112.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

DEN111.2allowed, −1.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.2%	+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.7%	12.4%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	24.8%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.192	+0.5
Everything else			−1.5

MIN112.3allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	54.2%	+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.4%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	24.8%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.192	+0.1
Everything else			−2.2

Pace, last 10average 97.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 98.9 and MIN 96.8 → average 97.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0MIN46.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIN46.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Edwards	29.1	38.2	10
Donte DiVincenzo	17.5	31.4	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysMIN3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Jan 23 against SAC.

MIN3days

Last played Jan 22 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 23	SAC	132–123	49-101	13-37	21-31	10	15	118.9	110.8	111.0
Jan 21	PHI	144–109	52-85	16-31	24-25	13	14	148.5	113.5	96.5
Jan 19	@ORL	113–100	40-77	7-25	26-31	20	13	116.5	102.0	97.5
Jan 17	@MIA	133–113	50-92	16-33	17-19	5	7	134.3	111.9	100.0
Jan 15	HOU	108–128	40-75	14-29	14-21	18	9	114.9	137.6	93.5
Jan 14	@DAL	118–99	43-83	13-29	19-22	18	11	119.2	99.0	99.5
Jan 12	@DAL	112–101	46-94	7-32	13-20	13	15	115.5	105.2	96.5
Jan 10	BKN	124–105	45-87	9-24	25-33	14	12	122.8	102.9	101.5
Jan 8	LAC	126–103	49-89	17-35	11-17	11	7	127.3	105.1	98.5
Jan 7	BOS	106–118	40-87	14-36	12-15	16	13	112.8	124.2	94.5

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 22	@DAL	115–114	37-81	11-29	30-34	11	9	116.2	114.0	99.5
Jan 20	@MEM	106–108	36-93	14-43	20-27	16	17	103.9	105.9	102.0
Jan 18	CLE	117–124	43-90	15-38	16-19	7	9	120.6	129.2	96.5
Jan 17	@NYK	116–99	42-79	22-40	10-14	15	11	126.1	108.8	91.5
Jan 15	GSW	115–116	38-86	17-37	22-29	9	16	127.8	127.5	90.5
Jan 13	@WAS	120–106	41-83	14-37	24-31	18	14	118.8	106.0	100.5
Jan 11	MEM	125–127	47-83	17-42	14-19	18	7	122.5	124.5	102.0
Jan 9	@ORL	104–89	34-85	12-34	24-31	8	14	113.0	95.7	92.5
Jan 7	@NOP	104–97	38-89	15-44	13-19	16	11	105.1	100.0	98.0
Jan 6	LAC	108–106	41-92	16-39	10-17	14	17	112.5	111.6	95.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

41%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored DEN

33 pts

margin miss

forecast −4, actual +29 for MIN

264th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

29th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.89 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DEN	MIN
Final score	104	133
Field goals	43–88 · 48.9%	53–95 · 55.8%
Three-pointers	11–32 · 34.4%	14–30 · 46.7%
Free throws	7–13 · 53.8%	13–15 · 86.7%
Rebounds	36	45
Assists	32	38
Turnovers	19	16
Steals	7	14
Blocks	3	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	−4	+29	+33
Total points	224	237	+13
DEN points	114	104	−10
MIN points	110	133	+23

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DEN	31	29	31	13	–	104
MIN	40	31	38	24	–	133

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 23	vs SAC	W 132–123
Jan 21	vs PHI	W 144–109
Jan 19	at ORL	W 113–100
Jan 17	at MIA	W 133–113
Jan 15	vs HOU	L 108–128

Minnesota Timberwolves

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 22	at DAL	W 115–114
Jan 20	at MEM	L 106–108
Jan 18	vs CLE	L 117–124
Jan 17	at NYK	W 116–99
Jan 15	vs GSW	L 115–116

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Nov 1 2024-25	DEN at MIN	DEN 116 – 119 MIN
May 19 2023-24	MIN at DEN	MIN 98 – 90 DEN
May 16 2023-24	DEN at MIN	DEN 70 – 115 MIN
May 14 2023-24	MIN at DEN	MIN 97 – 112 DEN
May 12 2023-24	DEN at MIN	DEN 115 – 107 MIN