The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 25

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, December 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIN 1–0@DAL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 25 percent, DAL 75 percent. MIN Timberwolves 25% proj. 108 · final 105 DAL Mavericks · home 75% proj. 118 · final 99
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 108 105 −3
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 118 99 −19

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMINDAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15561636
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +150
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.0+6.8
Games played this season 2829
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.3119.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 101.1112.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1556DAL1636

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1556

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
  2. First 18 games: −76.4
  3. Last 10 games: +14.9
  • WLAC93–92+3.3
  • WLAL109–80+14.8
  • W@LAC108–80+26.8
  • W@GSW107–90+19.4
  • L@GSW106–114−7.7
  • WLAL97–87+4.8
  • W@SAS106–92+8.8
  • LNYK107–133−27.0
  • LGSW103–113−14.8
  • L@ATL104–117−13.5

DAL1636

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1675 → started this one at 1631
  2. First 19 games: +4.6
  3. Last 10 games: +0.2
  • W@UTA106–94+4.5
  • W@POR137–131+3.6
  • WMEM121–116+2.9
  • W@WAS137–101+5.4
  • W@TOR125–118+3.5
  • L@OKC104–118−8.3
  • W@GSW143–133+10.7
  • LLAC95–118−33.0
  • WLAC113–97+7.9
  • WPOR132–108+3.0
Season scoring marginMIN+2.0DAL+6.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+2.0

Scores 109.2, allows 107.2 over 28 games: +2.0 a game.

DAL+6.8

Scores 118.8, allows 112.0 over 29 games: +6.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN105.3DAL119.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.4).

MIN105.3scored, −7.1 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.2%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.6%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.5%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1580.196−1.1
Everything else−0.8

DAL119.2scored, +6.9 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.4%54.2%+6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.6%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%24.5%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.196+1.4
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10MIN101.1DAL112.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.4).

MIN101.1allowed, −11.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.2%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)15.8%12.6%+4.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.5%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1540.196+1.2
Everything else−0.2

DAL112.3allowed, −0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.2%+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.6%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%24.5%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1490.196+1.4
Everything else−1.5
Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 98.7 and DAL 101.3 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Dec 23 against ATL.

DAL2days

Last played Dec 23 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23@ATL104–11739-9114-4312-132116102.0114.7102.0
Dec 21GSW103–11336-8614-3817-251511106.2116.597.0
Dec 19NYK107–13341-8917-428-13136104.9129.1102.5
Dec 15@SAS106–9240-10012-3514-161214106.092.999.5
Dec 13LAL97–8735-879-3218-24131198.087.999.0
Dec 8@GSW106–11436-7919-4215-20147111.6118.895.5
Dec 6@GSW107–9040-8814-4213-14179107.090.999.5
Dec 4@LAC108–8041-8516-4410-18147106.980.0100.5
Dec 2LAL109–8041-8115-3512-15157112.482.597.0
Nov 29LAC93–9231-7515-3916-20211197.997.994.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23POR132–10848-9012-3624-341012129.4108.0101.0
Dec 21LAC113–9740-8814-3519-221111118.9100.096.0
Dec 19LAC95–11834-867-3020-2813796.9120.498.0
Dec 15@GSW143–13352-8721-4118-251510141.6131.7101.0
Dec 10@OKC104–11838-8015-3613-19187104.0118.0100.0
Dec 7@TOR125–11838-8117-4532-371813117.9113.5105.0
Dec 5@WAS137–10148-8920-3821-271513130.596.2105.0
Dec 3MEM121–11639-8113-3230-442514112.0109.4107.0
Dec 1@POR137–13148-8718-3623-29138133.0128.4102.5
Nov 30@UTA106–9441-9015-399-151511108.296.997.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
25%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
the forecast favored DAL
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −6 for DAL
33rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
293rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINDAL
Final score10599
Field goals40–86 · 46.5%36–87 · 41.4%
Three-pointers14–32 · 43.8%16–43 · 37.2%
Free throws11–13 · 84.6%11–11 · 100.0%
Rebounds4643
Assists2315
Turnovers1012
Steals86
Blocks58

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)+10−6−16
Total points226204−22
MIN points108105−3
DAL points11899−19

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIN26313315–105
DAL24162831–99

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 at ATL L 104–117
Dec 21 vs GSW L 103–113
Dec 19 vs NYK L 107–133
Dec 15 at SAS W 106–92
Dec 13 vs LAL W 97–87

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 vs POR W 132–108
Dec 21 vs LAC W 113–97
Dec 19 vs LAC L 95–118
Dec 15 at GSW W 143–133
Dec 10 at OKC L 104–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 29 2024-25 DAL at MIN DAL 120 – 114 MIN
May 30 2023-24 DAL at MIN DAL 124 – 103 MIN
May 28 2023-24 MIN at DAL MIN 105 – 100 DAL
May 26 2023-24 MIN at DAL MIN 107 – 116 DAL
May 24 2023-24 DAL at MIN DAL 109 – 108 MIN