2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder

Monday, February 24, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

MIN 3–0@OKC 0–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	112	131	+19
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	124	128	+4

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1606	1757
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+221
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.1	+12.5
Games played this season	58	57
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.5	125.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.3	108.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	15.0	13.2
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1606OKC1757

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1606

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 48 games: +4.7
Last 10 games: −16.9

LWAS103–105−15.0
LSAC114–116−7.6
WCHI127–108+5.4
WHOU127–114+8.5
WPOR114–98+5.4
L@CLE107–128−9.6
LMIL101–103−8.5
WOKC116–101+18.3
L@HOU115–121−7.4
LOKC123–130−6.4

OKC1757

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 47 games: +113.0
Last 10 games: +25.7

WSAC144–110+7.3
WMIL125–96+5.3
WPHX140–109+5.1
WTOR121–109+1.4
W@MEM125–112+10.1
WNOP137–101+2.0
WMIA115–101+2.0
L@MIN101–116−18.3
W@UTA130–107+4.4
W@MIN130–123+6.4

Season scoring marginMIN+3.1OKC+12.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+3.1

Scores 111.8, allows 108.7 over 58 games: +3.1 a game.

OKC+12.5

Scores 117.9, allows 105.4 over 57 games: +12.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN115.5OKC125.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

MIN115.5scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.2%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.2%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.1%	25.0%	+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.213	0.194	+0.6
Everything else			+1.6

OKC125.7scored, +12.5 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.0%	54.2%	+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.6%	12.2%	+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.3%	25.0%	+3.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.194	−0.5
Everything else			+0.4

Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.3OKC108.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

MIN113.3allowed, +0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.2%	−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	25.0%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.194	−0.0
Everything else			+0.1

OKC108.1allowed, −5.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.2%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	25.0%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.194	−1.0
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 99.5 and OKC 100.5 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMIN15.0OKC13.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN15.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Rudy Gobert	15.0	34.8	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

OKC13.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Chet Holmgren	13.2	26.5	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestMIN1 daysOKC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 23 against OKC.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 23 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	OKC	123–130	39-89	18-45	27-28	13	15	123.0	131.3	99.5
Feb 21	@HOU	115–121	41-92	11-38	22-26	9	7	110.6	117.5	103.5
Feb 13	OKC	116–101	42-99	12-46	20-22	8	20	118.4	104.1	97.5
Feb 12	MIL	101–103	39-103	10-44	13-15	13	15	96.2	98.1	105.0
Feb 10	@CLE	107–128	36-90	12-39	23-30	16	13	105.9	126.7	101.0
Feb 8	POR	114–98	43-82	10-28	18-28	14	8	111.8	97.0	101.5
Feb 6	HOU	127–114	45-94	16-39	21-24	13	18	130.9	118.8	96.5
Feb 5	CHI	127–108	42-98	20-47	23-28	11	23	133.7	113.7	95.0
Feb 3	SAC	114–116	43-94	12-40	16-16	8	11	121.3	120.8	95.0
Feb 1	WAS	103–105	38-93	12-40	15-18	14	11	103.0	105.0	100.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	@MIN	130–123	48-86	19-35	15-20	13	7	131.3	123.0	99.5
Feb 21	@UTA	130–107	46-97	19-43	19-20	12	17	130.0	104.9	101.0
Feb 13	@MIN	101–116	37-88	7-29	20-24	9	11	104.1	118.4	97.5
Feb 12	MIA	115–101	43-88	15-39	14-20	13	10	118.6	105.2	96.5
Feb 10	NOP	137–101	49-95	27-55	12-16	10	9	133.0	100.0	102.0
Feb 8	@MEM	125–112	45-105	18-42	17-21	8	20	125.0	113.1	99.5
Feb 7	TOR	121–109	43-84	9-31	26-31	12	10	124.7	114.7	96.0
Feb 5	PHX	140–109	52-102	12-42	24-27	5	16	135.9	104.8	103.5
Feb 3	MIL	125–96	51-99	16-41	7-8	17	11	119.0	92.3	104.5
Feb 1	SAC	144–110	57-107	19-46	11-16	11	20	135.8	104.8	105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −3 for OKC

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

336th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	OKC
Final score	131	128
Field goals	44–97 · 45.4%	45–106 · 42.5%
Three-pointers	9–32 · 28.1%	15–49 · 30.6%
Free throws	34–39 · 87.2%	23–29 · 79.3%
Rebounds	54	53
Assists	29	27
Turnovers	13	11
Steals	6	10
Blocks	5	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+12	−3	−15
Total points	236	259	+23
MIN points	112	131	+19
OKC points	124	128	+4

Recent form before this game