2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, November 17, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 0–0@OKC 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	108	121	+13
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	121	119	−2

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DAL	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1605	1675
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+139
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.4	+10.9
Games played this season	13	13
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.3	114.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.3	103.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	28.4	18.4
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1605OKC1675

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1605

Ended last season at 1675 → started this one at 1631
First 3 games: −6.6
Last 10 games: −18.9

W@MIN120–114+9.6
LHOU102–108−13.9
WORL108–85+8.9
LIND127–134−13.5
WCHI119–99+6.1
LPHX113–114−5.6
L@DEN120–122−3.9
L@GSW117–120−3.7
L@UTA113–115−8.4
WSAS110–93+5.5

OKC1675

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 3 games: +34.8
Last 10 games: +22.4

WSAS105–93+2.8
W@POR137–114+6.7
W@LAC105–92+8.9
WORL102–86+5.1
L@DEN122–124−5.1
WHOU126–107+6.4
LGSW116–127−16.3
WLAC134–128+3.2
WNOP106–88+3.8
WPHX99–83+6.9

Season scoring marginDAL+3.4OKC+10.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+3.4

Scores 113.9, allows 109.9 over 13 games: +4.0 a game.

65% this season (+4.0) + 35% last season (+2.3) = +3.4

OKC+10.9

Scores 115.1, allows 102.2 over 13 games: +12.9 a game.

65% this season (+12.9) + 35% last season (+7.3) = +10.9

Offensive rating, last 10DAL115.3OKC114.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

DAL115.3scored, +2.7 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.4%	53.9%	+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.4%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	24.7%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.202	−0.5
Everything else			−1.2

OKC114.8scored, +2.2 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	53.9%	+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.4%	+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.4%	24.7%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.202	−0.7
Everything else			+0.8

Defensive rating, last 10DAL111.3OKC103.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

DAL111.3allowed, −1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	53.9%	+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.4%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.8%	24.7%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.202	+0.3
Everything else			+2.5

OKC103.7allowed, −8.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.6%	53.9%	+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.4%	12.4%	+5.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	24.7%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.202	−0.8
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 99.5 and OKC 100.3 → average 99.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDAL28.4OKC18.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL28.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Luka Dončić	28.4	37.5	10

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-17 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

OKC18.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Chet Holmgren	13.3	23.8	7
Alex Caruso	5.1	19.1	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-17 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDAL1 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 16 against SAS.

OKC2days

Last played Nov 15 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 16	SAS	110–93	44-94	8-31	14-18	14	13	110.0	93.0	100.0
Nov 14	@UTA	113–115	43-85	12-39	15-20	17	11	117.7	119.8	96.0
Nov 12	@GSW	117–120	44-84	11-34	18-24	17	8	112.5	116.5	103.5
Nov 10	@DEN	120–122	48-90	10-33	14-19	10	10	121.2	123.2	99.0
Nov 8	PHX	113–114	41-80	11-33	20-22	11	8	122.8	123.9	92.0
Nov 6	CHI	119–99	45-93	12-38	17-21	15	9	111.2	92.5	107.0
Nov 4	IND	127–134	46-89	15-36	20-25	8	5	121.0	126.4	105.5
Nov 3	ORL	108–85	42-85	10-32	14-23	18	12	106.9	84.2	101.0
Oct 31	HOU	102–108	39-85	10-30	14-20	10	10	107.4	116.1	94.0
Oct 29	@MIN	120–114	45-93	16-39	14-18	9	12	122.4	117.5	97.5

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 15	PHX	99–83	36-91	10-40	17-18	10	13	103.1	86.5	96.0
Nov 13	NOP	106–88	39-88	15-39	13-16	5	5	112.8	93.6	94.0
Nov 11	LAC	134–128	47-91	18-46	22-23	11	8	131.4	125.5	102.0
Nov 10	GSW	116–127	42-94	11-33	21-26	11	14	117.2	128.3	99.0
Nov 8	HOU	126–107	46-90	14-37	20-23	10	7	122.3	103.9	103.0
Nov 6	@DEN	122–124	44-100	16-40	18-23	14	13	111.9	113.8	109.0
Nov 4	ORL	102–86	39-85	12-31	12-16	15	5	101.0	86.0	100.5
Nov 2	@LAC	105–92	36-84	16-39	17-19	12	3	105.0	92.0	100.0
Nov 1	@POR	137–114	51-95	19-49	16-19	13	14	137.0	114.0	100.0
Oct 30	SAS	105–93	41-89	17-41	6-8	10	5	106.1	93.0	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −2 for OKC

8th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

336th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	OKC
Final score	121	119
Field goals	40–84 · 47.6%	43–87 · 49.4%
Three-pointers	11–27 · 40.7%	14–42 · 33.3%
Free throws	30–36 · 83.3%	19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds	53	29
Assists	18	29
Turnovers	16	6
Steals	4	11
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+13	−2	−15
Total points	229	240	+11
DAL points	108	121	+13
OKC points	121	119	−2

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DAL	39	27	31	24	–	121
OKC	34	24	34	27	–	119

Recent form before this game