The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 12

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers

Friday, April 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 2–3@LAC 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 24 percent, LAC 76 percent. UTA Jazz 24% proj. 104 · final 110 LAC Clippers · home 76% proj. 116 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 104 110 +6
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 116 109 −7

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputUTALAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13561554
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +268
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.9+3.5
Games played this season 8080
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.8114.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.7112.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 86.223.8
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1356LAC1554

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1356

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
  2. First 70 games: −24.7
  3. Last 10 games: −54.1
  • L@HOU119–147−9.6
  • LDAL105–115−6.9
  • LSAS111–118−12.1
  • LHOU100–101−2.8
  • L@SAC106–127−6.4
  • LCLE113–129−9.8
  • L@LAC102–131−6.8
  • L@GSW110–118−1.9
  • LDEN95–111−5.2
  • WHOU124–121+7.4

LAC1554

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1520 → started this one at 1515
  2. First 70 games: +33.0
  3. Last 10 games: +5.3
  • LIND116–133−17.8
  • W@PHI108–107+4.1
  • W@ORL100–97+7.0
  • W@CHA130–118+5.4
  • L@SAC95–109−10.3
  • WDEN102–100+5.5
  • WUTA131–102+6.8
  • WCLE120–118+3.3
  • W@PHX105–92+18.2
  • LPHX108–124−16.9
Season scoring marginUTA−4.9LAC+3.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−4.9

Scores 115.7, allows 120.7 over 80 games: −4.9 a game.

LAC+3.5

Scores 115.8, allows 112.3 over 80 games: +3.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10UTA110.8LAC114.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

UTA110.8scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.8%−4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%11.6%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%24.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.195+1.0
Everything else+2.9

LAC114.2scored, −0.4 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.8%−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%11.6%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%24.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.195+0.6
Everything else−1.9
Defensive rating, last 10UTA123.7LAC112.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

UTA123.7allowed, +9.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.3%54.8%−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.6%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%24.1%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1600.195+1.0
Everything else+0.7

LAC112.7allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.8%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.6%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.3%24.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.195+0.0
Everything else−1.3
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 98.3 and LAC 97.8 → average 98.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingUTA86.2LAC23.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA86.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lauri Markkanen29.538.02
John Collins23.525.94
Collin Sexton20.432.08
Walker Kessler6.821.06
Kris Dunn6.020.45

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-12 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

LAC23.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard23.837.14

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-12 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestUTA1 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 11 against HOU.

LAC2days

Last played Apr 10 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 11HOU124–12144-8714-3922-271415129.2126.096.0
Apr 9DEN95–11136-9110-3113-131411100.0116.895.0
Apr 7@GSW110–11839-8315-3517-21116114.6122.996.0
Apr 5@LAC102–13135-919-3023-2915699.0126.0103.5
Apr 2CLE113–12941-8516-3715-18194113.0129.0100.0
Mar 31@SAC106–12734-8316-4122-28129114.0135.193.5
Mar 29HOU100–10137-808-3118-192010106.4105.295.0
Mar 27SAS111–11839-8313-3520-22215103.7110.3107.0
Mar 25DAL105–11537-8713-3918-221211109.4118.696.5
Mar 23@HOU119–14740-8911-3728-33109119.0147.0100.0

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 10PHX108–12444-9512-368-10129104.9120.4103.0
Apr 9@PHX105–9241-8712-2611-111810102.989.3102.5
Apr 7CLE120–11841-8414-3524-241511120.0118.0100.0
Apr 5UTA131–10251-9113-3516-18146126.099.0103.5
Apr 4DEN102–10034-907-3327-3266102.0100.0100.0
Apr 2@SAC95–10931-7611-2722-27158101.1116.094.0
Mar 31@CHA130–11843-7514-2930-3487139.8125.593.5
Mar 29@ORL100–9741-858-2410-121612107.5103.293.5
Mar 27@PHI108–10740-9014-3614-20611116.1113.893.5
Mar 25IND116–13346-856-2018-22811122.1141.594.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual −1 for LAC
9th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
427th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTALAC
Final score110109
Field goals41–88 · 46.6%43–96 · 44.8%
Three-pointers6–35 · 17.1%10–39 · 25.6%
Free throws22–25 · 88.0%13–19 · 68.4%
Rebounds4644
Assists2623
Turnovers1613
Steals79
Blocks47

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)+12−1−13
Total points220219−1
UTA points104110+6
LAC points116109−7

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
UTA27342524–110
LAC38222524–109

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Apr 11 vs HOU W 124–121
Apr 9 vs DEN L 95–111
Apr 7 at GSW L 110–118
Apr 5 at LAC L 102–131
Apr 2 vs CLE L 113–129

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 10 vs PHX L 108–124
Apr 9 at PHX W 105–92
Apr 7 vs CLE W 120–118
Apr 5 vs UTA W 131–102
Apr 4 vs DEN W 102–100

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 5 2023-24 UTA at LAC UTA 102 – 131 LAC
Dec 8 2023-24 LAC at UTA LAC 117 – 103 UTA
Oct 27 2023-24 LAC at UTA LAC 118 – 120 UTA
Jan 18 2022-23 LAC at UTA LAC 103 – 126 UTA
Nov 30 2022-23 LAC at UTA LAC 112 – 125 UTA