2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Saturday, February 10, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 2–1@DAL 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	116	111	−5
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	115	146	+31

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 47% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1626	1505
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−51
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+7.8	+0.2
Games played this season	51	52
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.5	117.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.0	121.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	18.7
Rest days	4	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1626DAL1505

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1626

Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
First 41 games: +128.0
Last 10 games: −12.2

W@MIN102–97+8.8
WPOR111–109+0.7
W@SAS140–114+5.6
W@NOP107–83+20.4
L@DET104–120−36.9
LMIN101–107−10.7
WDEN105–100+5.3
WCHA126–106+1.8
WTOR135–127+2.7
L@UTA117–124−9.9

DAL1505

Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
First 42 games: +24.6
Last 10 games: +27.5

LBOS110–119−5.0
LPHX109–132−17.3
W@ATL148–143+7.7
LSAC115–120−7.6
WORL131–129+4.3
L@MIN87–121−8.6
LMIL117–129−9.1
W@PHI118–102+22.9
W@BKN119–107+14.9
W@NYK122–108+25.3

Season scoring marginOKC+7.8DAL+0.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+7.8

Scores 120.8, allows 113.0 over 51 games: +7.8 a game.

DAL+0.2

Scores 118.3, allows 118.1 over 52 games: +0.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC115.5DAL117.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

OKC115.5scored, +0.1 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.9%	+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	11.5%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.3%	24.3%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.203	−0.4
Everything else			−0.9

DAL117.8scored, +2.4 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.9%	54.9%	+5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	11.5%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	24.3%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.203	+0.3
Everything else			−1.4

Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.0DAL121.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

OKC109.0allowed, −6.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.0%	54.9%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	11.5%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	24.3%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.203	+0.8
Everything else			+0.4

DAL121.2allowed, +5.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.9%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.8%	11.5%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	24.3%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.203	−0.1
Everything else			+1.6

Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 97.6 and DAL 99.7 → average 98.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingOKC0.0DAL18.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL18.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dereck Lively II	11.2	29.9	5
Danté Exum	7.5	22.7	2

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-10 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestOKC4 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC4days

Last played Feb 6 against UTA.

DAL2days

Last played Feb 8 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 6	@UTA	117–124	43-90	19-37	12-18	11	9	119.4	125.3	98.5
Feb 4	TOR	135–127	52-110	23-63	8-8	10	14	128.6	118.7	87.7
Feb 2	CHA	126–106	44-75	17-36	21-27	16	3	123.5	102.9	102.5
Jan 31	DEN	105–100	37-87	11-26	20-25	11	15	108.2	103.1	97.0
Jan 29	MIN	101–107	35-79	14-35	17-22	12	8	109.8	113.8	93.0
Jan 28	@DET	104–120	44-92	8-28	8-12	10	11	106.1	123.7	97.5
Jan 26	@NOP	107–83	42-88	10-33	13-14	11	6	108.1	83.8	99.0
Jan 24	@SAS	140–114	54-96	18-40	14-16	15	16	135.9	111.8	102.5
Jan 23	POR	111–109	43-89	7-23	18-28	12	10	108.8	107.9	101.5
Jan 20	@MIN	102–97	32-81	8-24	30-35	8	9	106.3	99.0	97.0

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 8	@NYK	122–108	43-82	18-42	18-23	8	6	127.1	113.7	95.5
Feb 6	@BKN	119–107	46-91	19-43	8-13	10	6	119.0	107.0	100.0
Feb 5	@PHI	118–102	42-87	17-43	17-23	9	8	122.9	105.2	96.5
Feb 3	MIL	117–129	40-81	16-39	21-23	21	8	110.4	122.9	105.5
Jan 31	@MIN	87–121	31-76	6-29	19-26	16	9	92.6	127.4	94.5
Jan 29	ORL	131–129	43-69	13-27	32-43	15	3	132.3	130.3	99.0
Jan 27	SAC	115–120	43-98	16-46	13-18	10	13	115.0	120.0	100.0
Jan 26	@ATL	148–143	51-85	19-35	27-32	13	6	139.6	133.6	106.5
Jan 24	PHX	109–132	41-89	17-43	10-18	14	10	109.0	133.3	99.5
Jan 22	BOS	110–119	43-97	14-40	10-14	10	10	110.0	119.0	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner

DAL was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +35 for DAL

534th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	DAL
Final score	111	146
Field goals	38–98 · 38.8%	53–91 · 58.2%
Three-pointers	17–47 · 36.2%	15–38 · 39.5%
Free throws	18–21 · 85.7%	25–33 · 75.8%
Rebounds	40	54
Assists	23	30
Turnovers	10	12
Steals	5	8
Blocks	4	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	−1	+35	+36
Total points	231	257	+26
OKC points	116	111	−5
DAL points	115	146	+31

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
OKC	30	32	27	22	–	111
DAL	47	24	39	36	–	146

Recent form before this game