The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 14

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Wednesday, February 14, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

BKN 1–2@BOS 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 34 percent, BOS 66 percent. BKN Nets 34% proj. 113 · final 86 BOS Celtics · home 66% proj. 119 · final 136
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 113 86 −27
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 119 136 +17

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBKNBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14431697
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +323
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.4+9.4
Games played this season 5354
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.7121.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.6113.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.28.4
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1443BOS1697

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1443

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
  2. First 43 games: −44.7
  3. Last 10 games: −0.8
  • LMIN94–96−3.3
  • WHOU106–104+3.9
  • WUTA147–114+25.8
  • LPHX120–136−12.8
  • W@PHI136–121+22.3
  • LGSW98–109−13.3
  • LDAL107–119−14.9
  • LCLE95–118−10.4
  • WSAS123–103+6.2
  • LBOS110–118−4.3

BOS1697

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. First 44 games: +91.8
  3. Last 10 games: −11.2
  • W@MIA143–110+13.5
  • LLAC96–115−25.0
  • WNOP118–112+3.3
  • WIND129–124+2.6
  • LLAL105–114−22.5
  • WMEM131–91+6.0
  • WATL125–117+2.0
  • WWAS133–129+0.6
  • W@MIA110–106+4.0
  • W@BKN118–110+4.3
Season scoring marginBKN−1.4BOS+9.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−1.4

Scores 113.9, allows 115.2 over 53 games: −1.4 a game.

BOS+9.4

Scores 120.4, allows 111.0 over 54 games: +9.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BKN114.7BOS121.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

BKN114.7scored, −0.6 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.9%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.5%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.2%24.2%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.202−0.9
Everything else−0.3

BOS121.7scored, +6.4 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.3%54.9%+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%11.5%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.2%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.202−0.8
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10BKN115.6BOS113.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

BKN115.6allowed, +0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.9%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.5%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%24.2%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.202−0.3
Everything else+0.2

BOS113.5allowed, −1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.9%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)8.6%11.5%−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%24.2%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1520.202+1.4
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 98.7 and BOS 99.4 → average 99.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingBKN7.2BOS8.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN7.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ben Simmons7.219.66

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-14 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS8.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Al Horford8.427.39

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-14 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestBKN1 daysBOS1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 13 against BOS.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 13 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 13BOS110–11839-7915-3317-26127114.6122.996.0
Feb 10SAS123–10349-8717-348-11119129.5109.694.5
Feb 8CLE95–11837-9310-2511-14121297.9121.697.0
Feb 6DAL107–11941-9112-3313-15108107.0119.0100.0
Feb 5GSW98–10934-8913-4217-221011100.0112.497.5
Feb 3@PHI136–12149-9520-5118-231013133.3119.8101.5
Jan 31PHX120–13647-9416-3910-13118118.8137.4100.0
Jan 29UTA147–11454-10521-4518-19816141.3109.6104.0
Jan 27HOU106–10436-7412-3422-37192101.999.0104.5
Jan 25MIN94–9635-7710-3314-16135102.2104.392.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 13@BKN118–11043-8315-3717-23137122.9114.696.0
Feb 11@MIA110–10641-8116-3912-1796120.9116.591.0
Feb 9WAS133–12948-9211-3426-28139119.8117.3110.5
Feb 7ATL125–11749-9317-4910-11146119.0110.4105.5
Feb 4MEM131–9148-9919-5116-181017128.489.2102.0
Feb 1LAL105–11441-9716-487-71514106.1115.299.0
Jan 30IND129–12447-8717-3618-22107130.3125.399.0
Jan 29NOP118–11243-8517-4615-20115121.6115.597.0
Jan 27LAC96–11536-10010-4014-16111899.0115.098.5
Jan 25@MIA143–11051-8022-4019-20116149.0115.895.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
67%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
44 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual +50 for BOS
1022nd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
4th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNBOS
Final score86136
Field goals31–81 · 38.3%52–91 · 57.1%
Three-pointers10–31 · 32.3%22–45 · 48.9%
Free throws14–15 · 93.3%10–12 · 83.3%
Rebounds3151
Assists2732
Turnovers118
Steals56
Blocks15

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+6+50+44
Total points232222−10
BKN points11386−27
BOS points119136+17

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BKN15172331–86
BOS30383335–136

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Feb 13 vs BOS L 110–118
Feb 10 vs SAS W 123–103
Feb 8 vs CLE L 95–118
Feb 6 vs DAL L 107–119
Feb 5 vs GSW L 98–109

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Feb 13 at BKN W 118–110
Feb 11 at MIA W 110–106
Feb 9 vs WAS W 133–129
Feb 7 vs ATL W 125–117
Feb 4 vs MEM W 131–91

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 13 2023-24 BOS at BKN BOS 118 – 110 BKN
Nov 10 2023-24 BKN at BOS BKN 107 – 121 BOS
Nov 4 2023-24 BOS at BKN BOS 124 – 114 BKN
Mar 3 2022-23 BKN at BOS BKN 115 – 105 BOS
Feb 1 2022-23 BKN at BOS BKN 96 – 139 BOS