2022-23 · Regular Season · Final
Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
Wednesday, February 1, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded
BKN 2–3@BOS 3–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | 108 | 96 | −12 |
| BOS Boston Celtics (home) | 115 | 139 | +24 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | BKN | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1570 | 1625 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +125 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +3.0 | +5.5 |
| Games played this season | 50 | 51 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.1 | 114.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 115.8 | 110.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 14.0 | 11.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBKN1570BOS1625
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BKN1570
- Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
- First 40 games: +97.6
- Last 10 games: −46.1
- LBOS98–109−13.3
- LOKC102–112−17.1
- L@SAS98–106−15.4
- L@PHX112–117−7.4
- W@UTA117–106+11.9
- W@GSW120–116+7.1
- L@PHI133–137−4.6
- LDET122–130−20.6
- WNYK122–115+5.9
- WLAL121–104+7.4
BOS1625
- Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
- First 41 games: −22.5
- Last 10 games: +1.0
- WNOP125–114+6.9
- W@BKN109–98+13.3
- W@CHA122–106+6.5
- W@CHA130–118+5.0
- WGSW121–118+2.3
- W@TOR106–104+3.1
- L@ORL98–113−23.3
- L@MIA95–98−5.8
- LNYK117–120−9.4
- WLAL125–121+2.4
Season scoring marginBKN+3.0BOS+5.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BKN+3.0
Scores 114.6, allows 111.5 over 50 games: +3.0 a game.
BOS+5.5
Scores 117.8, allows 112.3 over 51 games: +5.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10BKN116.1BOS114.5
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).
BKN116.1scored, +2.6 vs league
| Factor | BKN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.1% | 54.4% | +5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.6% | 23.9% | −1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.185 | 0.212 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
BOS114.5scored, +1.0 vs league
| Factor | BOS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.4% | −1.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.2% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.3% | 23.9% | +0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.213 | 0.212 | ±0.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
Defensive rating, last 10BKN115.8BOS110.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).
BKN115.8allowed, +2.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.4% | +3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.2% | 12.2% | −2.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.8% | 23.9% | −2.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.250 | 0.212 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
BOS110.9allowed, −2.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.4% | +3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.4% | 12.2% | −4.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.4% | 23.9% | +2.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.168 | 0.212 | +1.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Pace, last 10average 98.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BKN 99.3 and BOS 97.2 → average 98.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)
Rotation points missingBKN14.0BOS11.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BKN14.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Warren | 8.0 | 17.2 | 8 |
| Ben Simmons | 6.0 | 27.6 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
BOS11.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | 11.8 | 31.1 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestBKN2 daysBOS4 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BKN2days
Last played Jan 30 against LAL.
BOS4days
Last played Jan 28 against LAL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BKN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 | LAL | 121–104 | 45-95 | 16-41 | 15-19 | 9 | 12 | 122.2 | 104.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 28 | NYK | 122–115 | 46-87 | 22-40 | 8-14 | 8 | 9 | 131.2 | 123.7 | 93.0 |
| Jan 26 | DET | 122–130 | 43-94 | 13-38 | 23-27 | 16 | 15 | 120.8 | 126.2 | 102.0 |
| Jan 25 | @PHI | 133–137 | 49-76 | 14-26 | 21-27 | 16 | 6 | 138.5 | 139.8 | 97.0 |
| Jan 22 | @GSW | 120–116 | 43-79 | 14-27 | 20-31 | 15 | 9 | 117.6 | 114.9 | 101.5 |
| Jan 20 | @UTA | 117–106 | 43-80 | 18-41 | 13-20 | 9 | 6 | 123.2 | 111.6 | 95.0 |
| Jan 19 | @PHX | 112–117 | 43-82 | 11-26 | 15-25 | 12 | 2 | 109.8 | 113.6 | 102.5 |
| Jan 17 | @SAS | 98–106 | 37-88 | 3-23 | 21-24 | 21 | 10 | 90.7 | 97.2 | 108.5 |
| Jan 15 | OKC | 102–112 | 39-91 | 12-41 | 12-19 | 15 | 14 | 103.0 | 112.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 12 | BOS | 98–109 | 38-84 | 13-34 | 9-11 | 12 | 4 | 104.3 | 114.7 | 94.5 |
BOS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | LAL | 125–121 | 39-84 | 13-40 | 34-39 | 12 | 7 | 114.7 | 112.0 | 98.3 |
| Jan 26 | NYK | 117–120 | 41-100 | 16-46 | 19-23 | 13 | 15 | 110.4 | 114.3 | 95.5 |
| Jan 24 | @MIA | 95–98 | 32-74 | 10-32 | 21-27 | 17 | 5 | 101.1 | 103.2 | 94.5 |
| Jan 23 | @ORL | 98–113 | 36-83 | 18-46 | 8-11 | 18 | 8 | 102.1 | 118.9 | 95.5 |
| Jan 21 | @TOR | 106–104 | 38-85 | 16-35 | 14-15 | 15 | 11 | 110.4 | 105.1 | 97.5 |
| Jan 19 | GSW | 121–118 | 43-108 | 13-41 | 22-30 | 17 | 18 | 104.3 | 100.9 | 105.5 |
| Jan 16 | @CHA | 130–118 | 43-87 | 20-43 | 24-25 | 11 | 14 | 136.8 | 125.5 | 94.5 |
| Jan 14 | @CHA | 122–106 | 47-99 | 19-53 | 9-10 | 7 | 14 | 127.1 | 110.4 | 96.0 |
| Jan 12 | @BKN | 109–98 | 41-86 | 12-36 | 15-17 | 13 | 12 | 114.7 | 104.3 | 94.5 |
| Jan 11 | NOP | 125–114 | 44-91 | 15-44 | 22-25 | 9 | 11 | 123.8 | 114.0 | 100.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2022-23 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BKN | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 96 | 139 |
| Field goals | 36–88 · 40.9% | 53–92 · 57.6% |
| Three-pointers | 9–39 · 23.1% | 26–54 · 48.1% |
| Free throws | 15–18 · 83.3% | 7–10 · 70.0% |
| Rebounds | 32 | 57 |
| Assists | 19 | 28 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 10 |
| Steals | 8 | 4 |
| Blocks | 1 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (BOS) | +7 | +43 | +36 |
| Total points | 223 | 235 | +12 |
| BKN points | 108 | 96 | −12 |
| BOS points | 115 | 139 | +24 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 2022-23 | BOS at BKN | BOS 109 – 98 BKN |
| Dec 4 2022-23 | BOS at BKN | BOS 103 – 92 BKN |
| Apr 25 2021-22 | BOS at BKN | BOS 116 – 112 BKN |
| Apr 23 2021-22 | BOS at BKN | BOS 109 – 103 BKN |
| Apr 20 2021-22 | BKN at BOS | BKN 107 – 114 BOS |