2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, January 15, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 4–1@BKN 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	110	112	+2
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	122	102	−20

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1511	1603
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+161
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.5	+3.6
Games played this season	43	41
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.7	118.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.0	109.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	27.4
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1511BKN1603

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1511

Ended last season at 1330 → started this one at 1373
First 33 games: +56.6
Last 10 games: +81.8

WSAS130–114+8.2
L@CHA113–121−8.6
LPHI96–115−11.5
WBOS150–117+36.5
L@ORL115–126−11.2
WWAS127–110+14.1
WDAL120–109+12.0
L@MIA111–112−2.3
W@PHI133–114+28.1
W@CHI124–110+16.5

BKN1603

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
First 31 games: +39.9
Last 10 games: +44.4

WGSW143–113+16.4
WMIL118–100+12.5
W@CLE125–117+11.1
W@ATL108–107+3.4
W@CHA123–106+8.1
WSAS139–103+5.8
L@CHI112–121−12.8
W@NOP108–102+9.2
W@MIA102–101+4.0
LBOS98–109−13.3

Season scoring marginOKC+0.5BKN+3.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+0.5

Scores 116.9, allows 116.4 over 43 games: +0.5 a game.

BKN+3.6

Scores 114.2, allows 110.6 over 41 games: +3.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC119.7BKN118.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.0).

OKC119.7scored, +6.6 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.3%	+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	12.3%	+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.5%	23.8%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.213	−0.1
Everything else			+1.0

BKN118.9scored, +5.9 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	61.2%	54.3%	+10.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.3%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.1%	23.8%	−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.159	0.213	−1.5
Everything else			+0.0

Defensive rating, last 10OKC113.0BKN109.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.0).

OKC113.0allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.3%	+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.3%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.9%	23.8%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.295	0.213	−2.4
Everything else			−0.6

BKN109.0allowed, −4.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	54.3%	+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.3%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	23.8%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.213	+0.1
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 101.8 and BKN 98.9 → average 100.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC0.0BKN27.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-15 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BKN27.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kevin Durant	27.4	33.5	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysBKN3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Jan 13 against CHI.

BKN3days

Last played Jan 12 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 13	@CHI	124–110	47-92	11-33	19-22	10	12	122.8	111.1	100.0
Jan 12	@PHI	133–114	44-86	14-33	31-33	11	5	125.5	108.6	105.5
Jan 10	@MIA	111–112	44-91	9-35	14-21	18	14	111.0	110.9	100.5
Jan 8	DAL	120–109	46-95	12-28	16-20	8	13	123.7	112.4	97.0
Jan 6	WAS	127–110	50-98	17-37	10-14	9	11	123.3	105.8	103.5
Jan 4	@ORL	115–126	36-89	15-37	28-31	9	9	115.0	127.3	99.5
Jan 3	BOS	150–117	58-98	20-40	14-22	13	9	140.2	110.4	106.5
Dec 31	PHI	96–115	35-92	12-36	14-22	16	15	94.1	112.7	102.0
Dec 29	@CHA	113–121	42-99	11-36	18-21	12	11	109.7	116.3	103.5
Dec 27	SAS	130–114	46-86	13-24	25-31	12	13	131.3	114.0	99.5

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 12	BOS	98–109	38-84	13-34	9-11	12	4	104.3	114.7	94.5
Jan 8	@MIA	102–101	39-76	12-33	12-15	16	6	110.9	109.8	92.0
Jan 6	@NOP	108–102	37-85	15-33	19-20	12	10	112.5	105.2	96.5
Jan 4	@CHI	112–121	42-91	12-37	16-21	10	5	106.7	114.2	105.5
Jan 2	SAS	139–103	58-93	11-20	12-15	12	7	132.4	97.2	105.5
Dec 31	@CHA	123–106	48-80	13-34	14-19	14	2	123.0	105.0	100.5
Dec 28	@ATL	108–107	42-83	10-26	14-17	12	5	112.5	110.3	96.5
Dec 26	@CLE	125–117	47-82	18-30	13-17	15	7	127.6	120.6	97.5
Dec 23	MIL	118–100	46-93	14-32	12-13	10	12	121.6	104.2	96.5
Dec 21	GSW	143–113	54-84	21-33	14-16	14	3	137.5	108.7	104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

the forecast favored BKN

22 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −10 for BKN

15th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

119th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.51 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	BKN
Final score	112	102
Field goals	40–90 · 44.4%	39–91 · 42.9%
Three-pointers	12–31 · 38.7%	12–41 · 29.3%
Free throws	20–26 · 76.9%	12–19 · 63.2%
Rebounds	50	51
Assists	21	24
Turnovers	8	15
Steals	5	4
Blocks	7	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	+12	−10	−22
Total points	232	214	−18
OKC points	110	112	+2
BKN points	122	102	−20

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